Today, Michael Decter and Keith Richards commented about whether ZCH.TO, XLK, TOU.TO, HSE.TO, RY.TO, ZEB.TO, COS.TO, POT.TO, AGU.TO, E.TO, QTRH.TO, MU, BB.TO, YUM, TTM, ECA.TO, V, WBA, G.TO, IWM, BIP.UN.TO, BDGI.TO, DEE.TO, LGT.B.TO, CPG.TO, DOW, KEY.TO, CEU.TO, IPL.TO, PRW.TO, TSGI.TO, EXE.TO, CNR.TO, CPX.TO, NA.TO, CNQ.TO, PHM.V, CCT.TO, ALA.TO, AFN.TO, ACQ.TO, BPY.UN.TO, MG.TO, AW.TO, CUS.TO are stocks to buy or sell.
Selling its US businesses and the markets were anticipating a higher price. He would worry a little bit, with essentially a sale of half their business, as he is not sure they are over half the overheads. He would also worry US sale would take away a major upside in the share price. He would be looking at more to selling rather than buying.
This can be a very volatile stock, but he really likes the underlying business. The acquisitions they have done are good, solid acquisitions. It tends to trade a lot on the market sentiment about whether LNG will go forward and whether the Site C hydroelectric dam will go forward. If this happens, this company will do extremely well. They own a lot of heavy equipment that will be in demand. Partnered with a big Spanish company on the Site C clearing work.
This is quite a remarkable company. They make the custom fluids for fracing, so they will be affected somewhat by the price of oil. The reality is that if you are going to do wells and you are going to frac them, you want to put the right stuff down that well. This is exactly the company that will benefit from people trying to save some money in terms of drilling by having better outcomes.
Has had terrific growth, and more than that it has about $1.7 billion of growth projects locked into 2017, which gives them a continuation of their really strong growth which they've had in earnings. Up 88% in the quarter over last year. Their EBITDA growth should continue to be strong double-digit. Not just extracting natural gas liquids and selling them that way, but are into much more complicated things that give them a range of markets. Dividend yield of 2.74%.
This company made a big switch. They were in commodity businesses that had low margins. Decided to shed some of their historic businesses and go into higher value chemical products that have higher margins. Low raw material costs pushed up margins for the 9th straight quarter in the plastics business. Have a lot of room to the upside. Yield of 2.99%.
Outstanding CEO. Likes the management team. Just reported and they are through 140,000 barrels a day. Dividend of 7.46%, which he believes is sustainable. Have done a lot of tuck-under acquisitions and thinks they will do more organic growth. Have pretty good core areas. They own their own infrastructure, so they own rail terminals and are shipping more than half of the oil they produce by rail to very specific refineries, where they get a good price.
Markets. He had been raising cash through August and into September. His prognosis was that the markets would likely take a pull back based on the usual seasonal factors, but more importantly some of the sentiment indicators that he watches were just screaming overly optimistic, which is a contrarian indicator. A couple of weeks ago, there was a fear, and the 10 year bond yields shot higher and the major indices were plummeting and finally some money came into the market. That was his Buy signal. V bottoms have been happening a little bit more in the past few years, but they don't happen all that often. A research that he subscribes to show that when V bottoms occur, the markets get quite bullish with the average return, a year out, of around 17%. He is heavily into technology stocks. Within the Canadian market, he is almost entirely avoiding commodities, and have been for quite some time.
Gold. This broke down below $1200 today. There had been some support around $1260. Despite bounces, gold is in serious danger of going down to around $1000 an ounce, and this will drag along any related gold type stocks with it. Often with a break like this, you will get a retest, and you could easily see it come back up to around $1200. However, that does not mean it is a bullish environment. Avoid gold.
Energy. West Texas oil broke out, to the downside, of a large triangle that had been forming for a couple of years. It is now bouncing off its support level of $87. If oil can hold around its current level of just under $80, it could be okay, but you are in the danger zone and he doesn't know if he would be so bold as to say this is the bottom. Wait for a few weeks and see if it can actually hold.
A fairly strongly moving stock in an uptrend from early 2013 that broke down. Rather than being a complex Top, it basically just peaked and then dropped like a hammer. It is currently attempting to form a base. If this continues moving sideways for a bit, and then break to the upside, it might be a good play. If it got to $30 or so, he might be tempted to look at it.
Has been adding to his Union Pacific (UNP-N) position in the US. It is clear that with a near impossibility to get any pipeline projects of national scale approved, a lot more oil is going to continue to go on rail. This company along with Canadian Pacific (CP-T) will benefit, as they will from commodity movements.