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Like everyone, he's a bit fixated on when the Fed will stop raising. Not quite there yet, maybe 1 or 2 more. They're going to talk tough until they're not going to raise anymore. The talking tough is part of diminishing expectations. Volatility is going to continue until we get to a more stable central bank rate. Could be this summer, this fall, or longer. 

Overall, he's noticing that it's very hard to contain spending because people aren't spending just wage money. This is the boomer generation, the first generation that's going to retire with relatively decent pensions. These people have a lot in savings -- some of it in housing, some in the form of a pension, some in the form of managed investments. Their spending isn't going to drop when they retire. Many can keep spending at the same level for 20-30 years. This is a generation that's going to live longer and keep on spending. People at the lower income end, however, are more reliant on CPP and OAS and GIS. 

In previous times, you could jack up interest rates, throw a lot of people out of work, and consumption would immediately come off. Intergenerational wealth makes it much harder this time around.

Bank of Nova Scotia

Very favourable on all Canadian banks for the long term. Question marks on this one. Very high dividend. New CEO brings a wait and see. More diversified internationally, very volatile markets. If you have the stomach for the volatility, won't go wrong for the long haul.


Lots of room to grow. Pressure from higher interest rates will push companies to automate. As global trade unwinds, in a good position to help clients with complex logistics.

computer software / processing

Likes the dividend. Less risky than some smaller plays. Be patient. He doesn't believe we're going to be using less energy in 5-10 years. Exit from fossil fuels is a 3-5 decade process. 

Financial Services

Seen as most troubled Canadian bank. Regulatory scrutiny on balance sheet. Among the highest dividends. Prefers RY and TD for the stronger balance sheets. May have more downside, but don't be afraid of it. 

Canadian banks.

Won't cut dividends, but some may delay dividend increases until we get through this rough patch. The hard thing to predict in Canada is how bad the housing mortgage situation may get. 

There's a view that higher interest rates will automatically crush homeowners. However, about 33% of Canadian homes don't have a mortgage, and another 1/3 have a fairly low ratio mortgage. So only 1/3 of mortgages are somewhat at risk. Many millennial homeowners also have boomer parents who are able to help out.

Alphabet Inc

He's in for the long haul. This is a core holding, not one of the highly overvalued and overpriced tech stocks. This one will be fine. Trading at 23x earnings, cheap relative to some of the others.


Pounded along with a lot of real estate. Quality company. There will be some carnage across real estate, and it's hard to predict the knock-on effects. Be cautious. If you own it, you're not in peril. Otherwise, wait till interest rates have peaked, and you might get it even cheaper.

Telus Corp

He exited because fixed income returns matched Telus dividend. Also, he's concerned that consumer pressure on prices may eventually open the door to competition. 

telephone utilities
Keyera Corp

Through its investments, has shown itself to be much more than a conventional pipeline company. Held up better than others in the space. Good things for the future. Happy to hold.

oil / gas
(A Top Pick Feb 18/20, Up 15%)

Favourite US bank. Thinks highly of leadership. Solid at this level. Regional troubles will benefit the "too big to fail" banks, as they gobble up assets. 

Financial Services
Stryker Corp.
(A Top Pick Feb 18/20, Up 39%)

Covid-induced backlog of surgeries is being tackled, and this benefits SYK, as it supplies both equipment and replacement joints. Innovative. 

biotechnology / pharmaceutical
Visa Inc.
(A Top Pick Feb 18/20, Up 10%)

It's really a technology company, not a credit card company. A platform for many companies in the e-space.

other services
Cameco Corporation

View is positive. He sold too early. If you own it now, hold it. If you don't own it already, you could still buy it. Outlook for nuclear power is strong, no carbon emissions. There are still 2 issues: 1) no one wants a facility in their backyard, and 2) problem of 1000-year storage time on spent fuel rods.

integrated mines
Cargojet Inc

Terrific company. Will be around for the long haul, and will find a profitable niche. Hard to know how competitive the space will get. When passenger flights aren't full, they pick up cargo capacity, which steals CJT's lunch. He's waiting for an entry point to re-enter.

Transportation & Environmental Services
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