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Stock Opinions by Michael Decter

COMMENT

Despite today's sharp sell-off, he feels that Q4 will be positive. Happening now is some tax-loss selling. Also, now there's a short-term fixed-income opportunity of 5-6% in GICs and bond ETFs, but there's little reward in holding these for the long term of 5-more years and stocks eventually rebound--and he expects. Remember that stocks can raise their dividends and bonds cannot. October could be bumpy but Q4 will be strong. The next move on interest rates will be down. It's immaterial if there's one more rate increase, likely in November and December, because rates will then hold. He likes energy, financials and industrials, where the selling is overdone and the fundamentals are very good. You can get a 6-7% divvy on a Canadian bank and he can't remember when that last happened. Banks will feel some turbulence over the mortgage market, but they can make more money under high interest rates than low.

Unknown
SELL
Air Canada

He sold his shares recently, because AC doesn't hedge their fuel costs, they must settle a pilot contract, and if the economy weakens it could impact their passenger load.

Transportation
BUY
Bank of Nova Scotia

He loves Canadian banks. BNS pays the highest dividend or close to it. There's some question about the CEO change, because the new CEO doesn't come from banks. Banks are downsizing after investing in IT. BNS likes the dividend that they raised. BNS operates in Latin America, not the easiest place to do business. RY and TD have less volatility, but pay a lower dividend.

banks
PARTIAL SELL
Bank of America
Take profits?

A good bank. Never hurts to take profits. If you sell this, don't buy a Canadian bank, but another American bank to avoid the 30-day waiting rule.

banks
BUY
Great West Lifeco

A strong company for a long time. He'd stick with it.

insurance
WATCH

Has owned this in the past. Likes their gas position in France, given the sanctions on Russia. VET could take a larger market share. He watches this.

oil / gas
WAIT
Telus Corp

Has owned this. Nothing wrong with owning it. Over time, the telcos could see their oligopoly erode with more competition. Also, higher GIC rates are hurting the telco stocks, known for their dividends. Don't sell. Wait for interest rates to stabilize. Sure, GICs pay 5%, but what about inflation? Dividend stocks are a better hedge against inflation over the long term.

telephone utilities
BUY
Enbridge
Buy at $36?

Not sure. It could go lower. A solid company, but carries enormous debt. A point to consider if they make an acquisition. They have fine assets with long-term value. We won't stop using natural gas. Pays a 8.25% dividend which is sustainable.

oil / gas pipelines
PAST TOP PICK
Amazon.com, Inc.
(A Top Pick Jun 22/23, Down 3%)

Has added to this. An essential company in the economy. It's had a good run, but is down to a PE worth buying for the long term.

specialty stores
PAST TOP PICK
Eli Lilly & Co.
(A Top Pick Jun 22/23, Up 15%)

The weight-loss jobs are the biggest innovation in pharma since the Covid vaccine. By market cap, LLY is the most important drug company in the world. Their Ozempic drug has been a huge successful, reducing weight and heart attacks. A negative side effect likely would have turned up by now, so he expect sales volume to keep rising, up to over $120 billion annually.

biotechnology / pharmaceutical
PAST TOP PICK
Tourmaline Oil Corp
(A Top Pick Jun 22/23, Up 13%)

A dominant nat gas company that's well-run. They move gas from Canada to California. Because there are no processing plants for LNG in Canada right now, TOU has been sending their gas to the US to refine then ship to Asia, but receive a much better price. Volumes aren't large yet, but Asian demand is strong.

oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Hydro One

Is being hit like all utilities now by high interest rates. Doesn't see a growth catalyst for this stock, so this is really a bond. There's demand for new energy, but building nuclear plants take a long time.

electrical utilities
STRONG BUY
Waste Connections

Loves it. There's room for growth in volumes as well as margin expansion.

Transportation & Environmental Services
PARTIAL BUY

There's room for growth as society puts more effort into disposing waste. A little volatile. Collecting garbage is moving towards automation. Operates in an essential, but growing sector.

environmental
DON'T BUY
Intel

He's avoided all chipmakers, because of the strong geopolitical tensions (US, Taiwan). Always make him nervous when a government throws subsidies into a business as Washington is; always are strings attached. Also, Apple will make its own chips. Prefers to own the chip-using companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.

computer parts mnfctr
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