Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Stockchase Insights commented about whether NOA.TO, DG, VZLA.V, FFH.TO, ZSP.TO, ONXS, BN.TO, ARKF are stocks to buy or sell.
Corporate earnings the past two weeks - only 60% of major companies beating "top line" estimates.
Top line revenue downward trend means growth is slowing.
Since inflation is falling - companies unable to charge higher prices.
Believes inflation will be sticky, and present challenges to the economy.
Positive trends for higher energy prices going forward (oil above $80).
Too much optimism in the markets with A.I. euphoria.
Believes interest rates are going to go up, and recession is looming.
Hard landing will hurt the economy.
US Federal Reserve trying to paint the narrative of soft landing.
Probability of recession has gone down according to US Federal Reserve (which is wrong).
Enormous borrowing by US Treasury not sustainable.
Higher interest rates will erode confidence in US banking system.
VZLA is a relatively small company, operating as a developer of precious and base metal assets largely focused in the Panuco district in Mexico. The Panuco silver-gold project is considered one of the highest-grade silver primary discoveries in the world, with a relatively low-cost structure compared to competitors (based on the company presentation) and is now trading at 1.3x times' Price/Book.
As VZLA is still in the exploration stage, which is still 3-5 years until the company realizes its value through full production. The type of company is quite speculative, which may offer tremendous returns if the company eventually achieve mining stage. However, we consider the name to be highly volatile, we would prefer to wait until the company starts to generate some revenue and earnings. Insiders own 6%, Franklin Resources owns 13%. It has $52M cash, with a cash burn of $13M in the past year.
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Its earnings release on June 1, 2023, missing both earnings and sales estimates sent shares significantly lower. The broader markets began moving higher in May as investors felt more confident in the economy and the markets, and consumer staples stocks, which were a safe haven for investors in an uncertain period from 2022, moved lower in May. The move was mostly sentiment and risk-related, until its earnings release in June which sent shares even lower.
We feel its valuation is now more in line with its historical range, and if earnings can meet or beat estimates, we would expect shares to gradually climb back.
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The stock was also up on very strong earnings, with EPS more than 14% ahead of estimates and sales more than 8% ahead. For a $900M company, the $395M acquisition is very significant. NOA entered Australia two years ago, and this deal instantly gives it scale and market share, and allows it to serve its global customers better. It also further diversifies its overall business. It adds about 1,400 employees and a $4B backlog. It is highly accretive to sales and earnings. Debt-financed, there is risk, but the earnings boost is substantial. We think it is a solid deal, and the stock remains cheap overall despite the gains last week.
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Odds of a Recession: What Could Change?
The economy is still susceptible to risks if inflation continues at elevated levels, pushing central banks towards a hawkish mode. Nevertheless, the recent CPI reading provides some comfort on that parameter as well.
Another potential outcome is the economic overcooling resulting from consumers experiencing significant financial strain due to two years of high inflation and the impact of elevated interest costs. Although there might be a time delay before these effects fully manifest, the most recent job reports do not currently indicate any immediate signs of an overcooled economy.
The market sentiment is shifting. Bank earnings are coming in strong; companies are beating street expectations and many investors are revising their recession forecasts.
As we always say, time in the market is more important than timing the market.
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The beat on sales despite raising prices by 7% YOY and have paid dividends and bought back shares. Remember that PG has been wiped out by higher commodity and transportation costs. Impressive. Posted 7% organic sales growth. They predict a $800 million windfall due to the costs of raw costs falling. They boast powerful brands.