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It's hard not to be concerned in the market. Every day, you're fighting to stay positive. He's not fully 100% bullish. There are things he's worried about, such as inflation and interest rates.
If you look at the history of the stock market, the outsized gains have come from a small set of companies, so it's not totally outside of normal. The beauty of investing is that you can have an investment that goes down 100%, but if you're a long-only investor, you could have something that goes up 10,000%. Hopefully, you can find some of those in your lifetime and it makes a big difference.
Shorter term, some research shows that the top 10 stocks make up about 32% of the S&P 500 gains in every year since 1995. He wants to see breadth expand in the second half, but he's not scared by the narrow leadership.
It's a reversal of last year. All markets are dependent on interest rates. We went through this period of worrying about rates and inflation. We're getting past that, though there's still work to do.
If we think about tech as a longer duration asset, which is to say that a lot of the value could be in the outer years, that's why those stocks performed the worst when inflation was the biggest problem.
Now they're rebounding. Part of it is a rebound. Part of it is a return to the idea that they can lead in growth also. There was a period when the FANGs were generating much better sales growth and earnings growth than the market. That's why they commanded a premium. Coming out of Covid, that wasn't the case. But now we're coming back to the same thing, where expectations have ratcheted up. We could see sales growth 2-3x higher than the market over the next few years.
There are fundamental underpinnings to the rally. It's not all fluff.
It will always depend on your own personal financial situation. Generally, one of the best strategies for non-professional investors has been dollar-cost averaging. Continually invest in the market over time, by trying to set aside a certain amount of your disposable income.
Volatility works both ways. If you're in cash and you miss a large downside move, it's highly likely you'll miss a large upside move to the other side. It's very difficult, if not impossible, to try to time the market. Better to just deploy your cash over time.
Assuming you can afford to, automatic contributions to your investment account are great, because that takes away the decision-making every month.
Canada is known for having a tighter, more concentrated, more resilient banking sector. That's still the case. Where is the most value in the market? It's in bank and energy stocks. Extreme value plus a cyclical bent.
Safe owning them for a long time. The one thing embedded in a decision to buy them now is how the economy progresses. If the economy gets a bit worse, it's going to be a problem, but that's not his base case.
Both great but different businesses, and great as long-term holds. Decide what end-market you're targeting to make your choice.
ASML makes cutting-edge machines that cost $100s of millions per unit. Concerns in the near term about China and the tit-for-tat going on. Risk that orders will be pushed back. Long-term, still likes a lot. Quite expensive, more of a monopoly.
GOOG is still one of his favourites. May just have the best AI capabilities in the world, despite OpenAI and the MSFT partnership, and that will continue to power through. Not expensive.
Both great but different businesses, and great as long-term holds. Decide what end-market you're targeting to make your choice.
ASML makes cutting-edge machines that cost $100s of millions per unit. Concerns in the near term about China and the tit-for-tat going on. Risk that orders will be pushed back. Long-term, still likes a lot. Quite expensive, more of a monopoly.
GOOG is still one of his favourites. May just have the best AI capabilities in the world, despite OpenAI and the MSFT partnership, and that will continue to power through. Not expensive.
If you own it, hold. If you don't, you can start building a position at current levels. Grown tremendously, so the question is whether their business will scale? Rigorous discipline has made it such a success. Doesn't overpay for acquisitions. High internal ROI rates have led to consistent growth and good EBITDA margins. Balance sheet is pretty good.
Whether to buy now is a tough question, but he's been adding recently. Great story. Dominant in GPU space, and you need GPUs for AI. Earnings quarter was one of the best he's ever seen, yet still earnings growth estimates got ratcheted up. Valuation is reasonable given EPS growth rate of over 40%.
Core holding. One question is the succession. Current CEO is one of the best operators in the market he's ever encountered, would be difficult to replace. Best portfolio of luxury assets. Navigated through Covid. Insane pricing power. Operating margins at record highs. Great execution and brand strength.
Great company. Historically expensive with only 1-3% net interest margins. Going forward, hopefully greater efficiencies on e-commerce. Cloud and advertising are growing fast, and will become bigger parts of the whole business. Margin profile will improve over time, which will help it regain highs.
Will benefit from the interest in AI, as current partners in the cloud will get wind of the availability of AI models from AMZN.