Shane ObataASML HoldingASMLWEAK BUYJul 05, 2023

It's straight up $75 after reporting a great quarter. Wait for a down day.

Really likes it here. A play on semiconductor capital equipment. The leader in what it does, with over 80% market share. The cycle is just starting. Reported today, and bookings were 50+% better than what the street expected. Probably seeing profit-taking today.

Nothing wrong with the fundamentals. Sector's at an inflection point. More room to go.

It is a very good company but the time to buy was a year ago when it was weak. It is quite inflated here but you could buy on a dip. It has a good business model with recurring revenue.

Semi-conductor equipment. The cyclicality of the cycle is shallower than it used to be. The challenge is China which tried to build its own semi-conductor industry. The outlook is quite interesting as the most advanced chips need the EUV solutions of ASML. He is looking at it.

Rocket ride out of its range of $600 support and $850 resistance. For a target price, he often takes the difference (~$250) and adds it to the breakout price, which gives you ~$1100. Some people use a dollar or percentage trailing stop -- ensures you don't get kicked out too early, but also allows you to take profits if it starts to roll over.

Semis and AI are still holding up for now in large caps. He'd hold, with an eye to taking profits. With this type of big move, you can wake up one day and all of a sudden you're down 10%.

He bought into weakness (not strength). He bought it as an AI play. TSM is their biggest customer. They've had a problem with China for a while, though boasts over a 50% profit margin. They're turning a corner, because the AI conversation has shifted from laptops and PCs to going mobile. So, they will need to buy new equipment, and this benefits ASML.

They report Wednesday. If they report good numbers, it could spark a round of semis buying.

Hardware makers are in a tricky spot. Sold, mainly because so many headlines involve the US trying to clamp down on China's access to everything related to semiconductors. Part of China's response to that was to buy up as much non-advanced-edge chip equipment as it could. An overhang going forward.

See his Past Top Picks for a name he likes a lot more.

His holding in the space instead of TSM.

It reports Wednesday. Is afraid it will miss like last time. Not exactly opaque--a complicated company.

The do a lot of business with China, and Trump refuses to help any Dutch company do business in China, a business ASML needs. (Biden felt the same.) ASML controls a crucial part in the entire semiconductor chain.

Last year was rough, but is holding up better this year. Long term for her, though it may doing nothing in the near future as the Nasdaq stays under pressure.

Last October, warning shock for chip investors. Cut 2025 guidance. He got out of the way. Lithography is a cyclical business. If you're still holding, sell.

Fell below 200-day MA in summer, he got stopped out. Would revisit the name once the dust settles. 30x forward PE for 20% earnings growth. Trying to base. Long-term AI sector thesis very much intact. The leader in its niche.

It makes equipment that is used by semi-conductor manufacturers. It is more cyclical than the semi-conductor sector, which outside of AI shifts is already facing a flat to downward cycle.