Shane Obata
Portfolio Manager at Middlefield Capital
Member since: Sep '19 · 422 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
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Big Win
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Win
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Neutral
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Loss
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Big Loss
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | 52 33.33% | 36 23.08% | 15 9.62% | 22 14.10% | 31 19.87% | ||
| 1 Month | 3.77 | 4 9.76% | 20 48.78% | 10 24.39% | 6 14.63% | 1 2.44% | |
| 6 Months | 3.85 | 17 41.46% | 11 26.83% | 2 4.88% | 6 14.63% | 5 12.20% | |
| 12 Months | 3.57 | 20 50.00% | 2 5.00% | 1 2.50% | 5 12.50% | 12 30.00% | |
| 2 Years | 2.19 | 10 32.26% | 3 9.68% | 2 6.45% | 5 16.13% | 11 35.48% | |
| 5 Years | 0 | 1 33.33% | 0 0.00% | 0 0.00% | 0 0.00% | 2 66.67% |
Stock Opinions by Shane Obata
We thought this might happen in terms of pushback against the tariffs, and we'll see where this goes. The over-arching view, though, is more uncertainty, which isn't great. It's been a very tricky year, and that will probably continue.
So far, you get one thing happening and then it's reversed. You get another thing happening, and then that gets reversed. There's still stuff that needs to happen for more clarity. Unfortunately in investing, you don't always get the full clarity that you want.
It's challenging thinking about the industry-specific tariffs that we still don't have a clear picture on -- semiconductors and pharma, for example. Lots still up in the air. The initial knee-jerk reaction was positive on the news today, but now the market's questioning "What's next?"
After the spinoff of the flash drive business, this is now a hard drive disk business. Over time, solid-state drives have taken away from hard drive disks in modern computers. That's been a challenge for the storage companies.
But AI has increased need for mass capacity storage at data centres, and those are hard drive disks. Tailwind for WDC. His firm tends to stay away from hardware in general. In AI, there are much cleaner stories with less cyclicality. He can't either recommend or criticize a buy on this one.
On the fence on this name. Back in the day it was a high-growth software company, but now lower growth (which happens as you get bigger). Recent deal is fine. But activists had identified ways to eke out more profit, company said no more M&A, and now it's back to M&A.
Also, he's waiting for more durability in the software AI story, which is slowly coming together. Wait and see, better ideas elsewhere right now.
He has no auto exposure right now. He spoke with an analyst a year ago on the topic of Chinese EVs; he said at the time that the game is over, they've won. When you want to do something correctly in manufacturing and be the best, ideally you want all the components (design, manufacturing) together geographically.
Offers low-cost solutions, and consumers would jump on them if given the chance. But what's that going to do to European and US auto sectors? Confident that it's leading in EVs, though can't recommend either Buy or Sell.
In the semi space, his firm tends to stay with a select few names that are best exposed to AI. That doesn't include the equipment makers, who are in a tricky situation. So many headlines involve the US trying to clamp down on China's access to everything related to semiconductors. Part of China's response to that was to buy up as much non-advanced-edge chip equipment as it could. An overhang going forward.
See his Past Top Picks for a name he likes a lot more.
Hardware makers are in a tricky spot. Sold, mainly because so many headlines involve the US trying to clamp down on China's access to everything related to semiconductors. Part of China's response to that was to buy up as much non-advanced-edge chip equipment as it could. An overhang going forward.
See his Past Top Picks for a name he likes a lot more.
One of his most tech-savvy friends described PLTR to him: consulting with AI. Often takes data from multiple, disparate sources, pulls it together, and lets the analytics take over. Very cool YouTube videos :)
There is no fundamental grounding for this stock whatsoever. It's a story stock, a cult stock. There are no valuation parameters to make sense of what you're paying for it. Astronomically expensive.
Has shown some of the most durable revenue growth in the entire market. Though more expensive, definitely likes it more than CRM. Deserves the valuation premium because it executes so well. Good long-term hold. Over time, need to see traction around AI for the story to continue working. Great company.
A darling. The story remind him of Dell, which assembles technology from other companies in a product for you to use. This raises questions of pricing power and technological differentiation. He has similar questions about CLS. As well, electronic manufacturing companies generally don't have great operating margins; a digestion phase in the markets would be a challenge for them.
Be cautious of names that get attached to the AI bandwagon. News like DeepSeek can also compress the multiples of the AI derivative plays.
Every time he's trimmed the stock, it's been a mistake. Great example of the power of network effects. Though penetration is high in developed markets, it still delivers decent sales growth and low double-digit earnings growth. No reason for the story to imminently change. Value-added services (such as security, analytics, loyalty insights) are growing at multiples faster than the core business.
Mixed feelings on this one. Warning: rant ahead. Years ago they thought (and still sort of think) that GOOG had all the pieces to win AI. Lots of platforms and good data. Difficulty is that may not matter because it needs to figure out where it's going to fit in AI.
ChapGPT has become synonymous with AI, and you could argue it's won the consumer subscription game already. Doesn't see anyone displacing MSFT on enterprise solutions; he tried Copilot, and it's still bad, but that doesn't matter because we're all held captive. MSFT is set to win enterprise AI as its AI improves over time.
So where does GOOG fit? He's a big Google fan, and the only person he knows with a Pixel phone. Search is the crown jewel, and such a big part of the overall business. Will they have to cannibalize themselves to win in AI? Competition has never been higher for Search. Older folks say "googling", but young people don't. They "search", and they don't care where they're doing it.
Can still deliver decent results, but the multiple will be capped at the very least. Cheap at the surface level, but there are reasons for that. He's still comfortable holding. Great job in Gemini, for example, but it needs to be monetized. Fun fact: Between ads and subscriptions, YouTube is bigger than NFLX.
Great example of a direct AI beneficiary. World's leading foundry business -- they make all the chips for everyone. Completely dominant via size, scale, and expertise. Though spending billions on building fabs, it extends competitive advantage because no one can compete.
One of the few stocks you can still get at inexpensive valuations, due to Taiwan invasion risk. Concern is not going away, but it's not near term. Smart to offer Trump additional investment, but to be vague on the timeline. Strong demand for US production, but it will come at higher costs of production.
