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You can make the case that if you go out into the latter part of Q3, you're going to have this financial tightening, which will weigh on the multiples. Therefore, we'll probably have an earnings recession going into Q4 and in the beginning of 2024. What that means to the market depends on where the market is when we get there.
For Q1, US earnings are expected down 9%. And for Q4, it was down about 5.5%. There is a trend going on. Revenues should be modestly higher, 1.5-2%. When you pull all the technicals and fundamentals together with what central banks are doing, it feels as though we're going to be entering a pause period, at least for the Fed. This is similar to what the BOC did. That would give a green light for investors to come in and put some money to work.
Doesn't see it going north of $10, a decent runway. High concentration of customers, where 61% of revenue comes from the top 20 customers. Signing up new clients. The king for data analytics and AI. Controversy about stock options being used to attract talent, cashing those in puts a lid on stock price. Great company.
Still in his top 5. Trimmed a bit to about a 3.5% weighting, as he had a 12-month price target of $290. He's holding on, as we're going into earnings season and things will change. Lots of interesting horses in the race. Thinks ATVI purchase will go through. Decent earnings. Buy in thirds here at $280, 265, and 250.
Potential for a recession, but only if there's more credit or financial tightening. Credit tightening would happen, at the soonest, in Q3 of this year. If there is a recession, it won't be until later in Q3, maybe into Q4. Makes sense, because it's only a year ago that they started raising rates. Most economists say that for rates to filter through the market, it has to go on for about 18 months.