President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1565 Opinions
Before Jan. 20, the strategy was to buy on dips. But since then, the plan is now to sell on strength. The tariffs have a lot do with that. 80-85% of the time, the market rallies, so eventually we will return to buying dips. That said, the last few weeks have provided an excellent time to buy cheap, quality stocks. Earnings season is just three weeks away and it will be interesting to see what companies can offer guidance. In tech, look at the new trend of Agentic AI, different from existing AI, because it can pro-actively solve complex problems independently; it's not robotic process automation.
He targets $4,900. It hasn't been hit like Shopify or Celestica, because CSU has so many horizontals. Microsoft has a software that is applied in many ways, but CSU is different. CSU applies their various software to specific industries, like a healthcare vertical/software. This diversification lowers volatility. Likes it.
Shares are back to July 2024. Will this be closer to $300 or $500? The easy answer is $500. $300 would mean a lot of fundamental concerns on the macro side of the market. Look for guidance ahead. Are they still on schedule to spend $13 billion this year? And what will they get in return for that? Their last Q4 revealed that their AI business surprisingly surpassed their revenue run rate of $13 billion, which was a lot sooner. Companies like this are spending alot, but they are making money back in AI.
Wait. But his style is to buy or sell in 3 parts. So, he advises buy a third to be safe. The tariffs will continue past April 2 but should extend beyond end-June. Also, Trump needs to distance himself from this tariff nonsense by the mid-terms elections next year.
He thinks Musk will hang around Washington no longer than end-June, then will return to work. Cars make up 70-80% of company revenues, which will change. They lead in gen AI. Next year, though, agentic AI and robotics will be the new theme in tech. Musk promises 20,000-30,000 Tesla robotics will be sold next year. Robots are used in car factories, but will be used one day in homes for housework.