
President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1944 Opinions
His team has entry points for stocks, and they have price targets. They find that if you stick to the knitting, it'll prove out. Over the last 4-5 months the market has been in a band, albeit a wide one. It can drive you nuts, but it also provides some opportunities.
They stick to the knitting on single stocks, and then they have a hedge overlay to add some value/alpha to portfolios. If you look at the NASDAQ futures, they've traded in a range between 31,000 and 27,500. When they approach 31,000, you sell some futures. His team is always fully invested in the single stocks, and they try to add value by hedging. It works, until it doesn't :)
It was only 4 years ago when MSFT put $10B into OpenAI. Over those 4 years, it was all about agents and chatbots for software companies. But then everyone thought that the large language models were going to eat the lunch of the SaaS companies.
Over the last 12 months, this agentic AI (like an army of agents, rather than individual) has come to the forefront. If you can control that army to solve the puzzle or build the house or whatever, it's pretty powerful.
The Canadian AI equity story is real, but different. In the States it's all about the AI ecosystem, and sitting at the top of the hill are the hyperscalers.
In Canada, it's more of a multi-theme portfolio rather than a single AI stock or ETF. It's more about the infrastructure enablers. We don't really have hyperscalers here, but we have some fantastic enablers. Think of CLS. The poster child for industrial AI software is SHOP. We also have power and data centre beneficiaries, such as ENB, FTS, EMA, and H.
You can drill down further into space and defense AI. The first one that comes to mind is MDA.
Reported last night. At one point overnight, it was off only $1. Now it's off $15. His team had pared back -- not on fundamentals, but on price action. The favoured one from 2023-25, but now AMD has caught up. Management is very conservative, lowballing growth expectations.
Strong profitability. Valuation high. Buy some here, more ~$340, and then $330. Probably won't get it lower than $320. Loves management and fundamentals, but price action is awkward and you have to pay attention. His firm has ~3-3.5% position.
This one, but don't put all your eggs in the one basket. It just has so many horses in the race. About 75% of revenue comes from advertising. Cloud business generates a whole lot of money. Very strong with Gemini, and now agentic AI has come out. Robust short-term liquidity. Current and quick ratios are well above 1. Low debt-to-equity. ROE of 38.1%. PE is ~17x.
The #1 holding in his fund. His 12-month price target is $428. Buy some here, more around support at $320. Shouldn't go under $300.