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Kim Bolton
President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1477 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
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Win
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Neutral
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Loss
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Big Loss
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.34 | 212 31.88% | 129 19.40% | 82 12.33% | 120 18.05% | 122 18.35% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.52 | 15 8.11% | 60 32.43% | 50 27.03% | 53 28.65% | 7 3.78% | |
| 6 Months | 4.77 | 59 34.30% | 37 21.51% | 15 8.72% | 29 16.86% | 32 18.60% | |
| 12 Months | 4.71 | 67 44.08% | 18 11.84% | 13 8.55% | 17 11.18% | 37 24.34% | |
| 2 Years | 4.16 | 53 44.17% | 11 9.17% | 2 1.67% | 18 15.00% | 36 30.00% | |
| 5 Years | 3.55 | 18 50.00% | 3 8.33% | 2 5.56% | 3 8.33% | 10 27.78% |
Stock Opinions by Kim Bolton
We've spent 46 weeks getting to where we are for the year, and you don't want to let it all whittle away going into the last 6 weeks. He's being a little conservative here.
Tech stock valuations are rich. Right now, he wouldn't say it's overbought, but it isn't cheap either.
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In the technology arena, lots of people focus on the semiconductor stocks and so on. For him, it's all about the data, and you need rich, reliable data. His analysts have always said that it's about the integrity of the data.
Take a look at a chart that's set up like a dartboard. The bullseye is all about the data infrastructure, which provides the foundation. The second ring represents data processing and analytics, which unlocks the value from the data. Outer ring focuses on protecting the data from unauthorized access and ensuring compliance with regulatory standards.
This all has to work together to allow people to have faith in the data -- stored properly, best analytics, and protection of sensitive information.
Pretty priced to perfection. He's taken 2/3 of his position off; letting the remaining 1/3 go, as it's had a wonderful run, but putting in stops as it goes. He'd say buy it here around $880, try to get it in the low $800s, and then certainly if you see it down around $750.
(Analysts’ price target is $890.00)Benefited a lot from the CRWD issue, and probably the closest competitor of CRWD. Its software can do a security fix on data and access right away. Now around $27, 12-month price target of $29.90. Getting up there, but he'd still buy 1/3 here, add again around $26.25, final 1/3 around $25.
Very rich, 12-month price target of $475. What jumps out for him is the management. Lots of competition, but management has executed extremely well. SONO is a bit cheaper, or even Pandora or Deezer.
Cheaper than SPOT. Other names to look at are Pandora or Deezer.
He took profit on it, pre-split, back in August. It's very competitive out there. It was priced to perfection (a repetitious theme for today's show).
(Analysts’ price target is $21.50)Today's the big day. Short-dated options from market makers show NVDA trading about 8-8.5% on either side of the close at end of day. A lot of the market makers will have to cover on their options, probably more so to the downside.
Last time it reported in August, it was a great report with OK guidance, but over the next couple of days it traded from $125 all the way down to $95. You're going to have some opportunities to get in. For him, you have to own it, must be one of your top picks.
Right now, the largest market-cap company in the world, about $3.6T. If you extrapolate on its growth rate which is conservatively in the low 20%s, then market cap by 2029 could be anywhere between $5.6-6.3T. And that will be reflected in the stock. We can say this because it's really cornered the market on data centre accelerator chips; no one is even close.
Now at $146, so runway is a bit short. However, it owns 88% of the accelerator chips in data centres, which are the big buyers out there. Some hyperscalers are starting to build in-house chips which will eat into its business, but at the same time governments are ramping up. Plus, there's still the gaming side, which contributes about $10B a year. Automotive chips too -- right now $3B, but estimated to be in excess of $20B by 2029. Lots of horses in the race.
Took some profits. Now at $32.41, 12-month price target of $36.50. Competitive lithography process, at the point of scaling it. He's now considering whether to get back in. Fabulous job, deep pockets, can scale. Will be very competitive with ASML (which has issues of its own). He'd wait and is watching very closely.
Stalled out. His 12-month price target is $491, decent runway. Of the Mag 7, probably want this one at the top of your list because it hasn't accelerated as much as the other 6. So many horses in the race, from cloud to personal computing to business productivity. Nicely priced.
A good pick, as it went private a month later ;) Going back to the opening "dartboard" chart, this was in the analytics segment.
Went down, came back up, but basically flatlined. He sold in July. Bought 46 companies in the last year to the tune of about $6.6B, but it hasn't ended up on the bottom line. Has 775,000 employees. Client base is very sticky.
Buy in 1/3's here around $353, $335 (his targeted entry point), and $320.
Sold in July, after doing quite well and reaching his price target. Lots of legacy businesses.
DOJ talking of splitting out Chrome. One of his top 5 holdings. Not as volatile as some of the other Mag 7's. Makes $$ on the ads, not especially on the Search. And the advertisers love going to GOOG, not to competitors like Perplexity or Bluesky. Plus, has all kinds of other horses in the race such as cloud and Other Bets. Waymo will become very important with the Trump Bump, Musk, EVs, and autonomous driving.
12-month price target of $200.25, still room to go. Buy some here at $175, and some more around $170.
Remember that some of the semis are very cyclical. Right now, there's an oversupply on the memory side, which you can see with the likes of ASML. And you can see this ETF rolling over. He stays away from ETFs because they're a mixed bag. The place you want to be in semis is in AI chips -- like NVDA, and AVGO (nipping at NVDA's heels).
