Kim Bolton
President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1591 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
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Neutral
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Loss
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Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.55 | 237 31.94% | 141 19.00% | 87 11.73% | 145 19.54% | 132 17.79% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.6 | 16 7.88% | 65 32.02% | 52 25.62% | 62 30.54% | 8 3.94% | |
| 6 Months | 4.86 | 62 32.80% | 39 20.63% | 17 8.99% | 37 19.58% | 34 17.99% | |
| 12 Months | 4.83 | 74 43.53% | 19 11.18% | 13 7.65% | 23 13.53% | 41 24.12% | |
| 2 Years | 4.56 | 61 45.19% | 15 11.11% | 3 2.22% | 19 14.07% | 37 27.41% | |
| 5 Years | 3.89 | 24 53.33% | 3 6.67% | 2 4.44% | 4 8.89% | 12 26.67% |
Stock Opinions by Kim Bolton
And they should, but we'll have to see what tomorrow brings.
When he looks at the NASDAQ futures, there's a line that goes all the way back to December when it was up around 22,200. The 19,000 level in the June contract is really important as a pretty solid indicator. It was breached earlier today, but has come off now.
He's holding anywhere between 20-30% cash across various accounts and even in his fund. If we get a close over that 19,000 on the June futures, he'll put that cash to work.
Sorry to say, but no. There is a timeline to it though. Trump's going to have to pull back on the rhetoric come the fall, which really means by the summer. Believes the tariff rhetoric will continue until, at the latest, the end of June. Then they have to focus on the mid-term elections, which are a year away. The last thing they want to do is lose the majority in Congress.
So we're still in for some volatility.
For the past couple of years it's been all about generative AI. He thinks that come next year (so starting in the second half of this year) it's going to be all about robotics.
The bullseye in the chart is all about the hardware -- physical foundation that ensures the robots have all the mechanical capabilities and sensory input. The second ring is all about the operating system and software side -- intelligence that allows decision-making and perception. Finally, the outer ring is all about applications and integration of solutions toward specific industries (such as healthcare, hospitality, transportation).
He'll talk in the Top Picks about a handful of these.
Relatively high yield. Defensive sector. Elevated payout ratio, rising debt, and weak growth outlook present too many risks. Hasn't done that poorly this year. 12-month price target of $34.75. If you're concerned, you could sell 1/4 or 1/3 as a sacrificial lamb.
The Mag 7 name he likes going into the second half of the year. Search is still extremely popular even though everyone was worried about AI. At the front of the line when it come to innovation in AI. So many other horses in the race. 75-80% of revenues come from ads; so a recession would definitely hurt, but that seems to be off the table for now as the S&P 500 "death cross" has recovered for now.
Fallen off a lot, but so have similar companies like CLS and DELL. If he's correct that the tariff issue will settle down over the next couple of months, this is a great place to buy. 12-month price target of $138. Cyclical. Hardware side is very leveraged, so susceptible to interest rate moves.
His 12-month price target for the US listing is $121.50. Canadian e-commerce darling. Lets a merchant manage pretty well its whole business across all kinds of sales channels. Software business, so keep your eye on interest rates as it's a bit leveraged. Would suffer in a recession.
Buy in thirds here at $86-87, $81, and $77. (He usually never manages to get that final 1/3.)
Everyone brings up this word, but it's such a low probability. You can have slower growth, absolutely, with all the tariff rhetoric. But he doesn't think it's going to actually result in a recession. The situation is self-inflicted by Trump, and we've seen over the last couple of days how he can dial it back. He and his people are watching the market and they know how to rig it.
Management has reestablished its credibility; still some work to do, and that's why they didn't want to sell. Very robust platform. Owns in some of his separately managed accounts, though not in his fund; means it's less investable and more of a trade. Products and services are top-notch.
