Kim Bolton

Glimmers of hope over next 6 months? Historically since WW2, every time the stock market ran up 20% or more as in 2021, it fell double digits in the first half of the following year. In the second half of that year, markets had at least returned to break even. The second thing is that inflation and interest rate hikes have already been significantly priced in. So by spring of 2023, developed world economies could experience a relief rally, if investors convince themselves that the Fed will dial back aggressiveness to prevent a deep recession. Remember, stock markets tend to look 6-12 months ahead. So spring 2023 should look more optimistic than today. Lastly, technology sector needs to lead the charge, as it's the biggest sector. Look for tech to be more robust as we enter the second half of this year.

Which area of tech to watch? Every 10 years, the pendulum swings between hardware and software. From 2011-2021, the horses that led the way were software. Before that, it was hardware. Now, the ones that seem to have the stabilizing factor, like META, are starting to move towards hardware. The trend is just starting to swing away from software and over to hardware.

SaaS that's taken it on the chin. Digital twins to increase efficiencies for machines and environments. Hardware and software. Unprofitable. No debt. Cash on the balance sheets. He follows it. (Analysts’ price target is $5.82)

SaaS really got punished with rate hikes, inflation, and supply chain issues. Operating system for the digital world. Story is great, but underlying metrics and free cashflow are of real concern. Loves the company, but it's unprofitable.

Whole payment side has struggled, very competitive. Innovation in the space, especially in Europe. If you don't want to sell, write some calls to make some money. Ability to innovate, but they'll need to look to the future. Look at ADYEN, it's on the cutting edge of "real-time rails".

Innovation in the space, especially in Europe. On the cutting edge of "real-time rails".

Shadow of its former self. Innovated into software side, but this is in the penalty box. Better opportunities elsewhere with longer runways, such as in cybersecurity. Look at ZS for web gateways, SPLK for security information management, or PANW for network security.

AMZN vs. SHOP Both have extremely long runways. In uncertain times, he'd rather recommend a megacap like AMZN, which has more defenses if we were to go into a recession, and that's a big "if". SHOP at $338 US is an absolute bargain. He has a 5% position in AMZN, one of his top 5 holdings, but less than 1% in SHOP.

SHOP vs. AMZN Both have extremely long runways. In uncertain times, he'd rather recommend a megacap like AMZN, which has more defenses if we were to go into a recession, and that's a big "if". SHOP at $338 US is an absolute bargain. He has a 5% position in AMZN, one of his top 5 holdings, but less than 1% in SHOP.

Leader in AI, with the smartest people. Will become a significant player, but still early. Not profitable, and profitability is years down the road. Total addressable AI market is 119B. Lots of the megacaps already have revenue to divert to AI. (Analysts’ price target is $10.56)

(A Top Pick Aug 04/21, Down 24%) Down 24%, which sounds ugly, but it's actually the best-looking one in the crowd. Long runway to the price target. If you think that a year from now, inflation and rates will have calmed down, the tech sector will be led by the likes of this company. Profitable, free cashflow. 99% contract renewal rate. (Analysts’ price target is $625.00)

(A Top Pick Aug 04/21, Down 70%) He got out as the macro picture changed. Lowered guidance because of lower borrowing demand. (Analysts’ price target is $51.00)

(A Top Pick Aug 04/21, Down 85%) Online platform connecting buyers and sellers for digital services. Not profitable. Financial metrics make it hard to wade back in.

New CEO is both an engineer and management operator, exactly what INTC needs. Product line breadth gives it a huge advantage. Added acquisitions every year for the last 5. Free cashflow machine, very profitable. Enviable gross margins by making most of its own chips. Leader in CPUs and autonomous vehicle chips. Price target is $56.

Semiconductor space. The semi space has come off a good 50-60%. Though he's unsure of the macro headwinds, he kept his stocks and shorted the SOXX to protect the portfolio.