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Stock Opinions by Kim Bolton

COMMENT
Nervous about the tech belles of the ball?

You gotta ride the wave. In his fund, he has about a 45% hedge, which is a bit overweight. But the top 5 stocks in the market are his top 5 stocks, and you just go with it until it doesn't work.

The software stocks are interesting, because they've really taken a back seat to the whole AI thing.

Unknown
COMMENT
What does it look like when the wave starts to crash back down?

If you look at the possible catalysts going out, perhaps a change in tone on the interest rates? Even when the 10-year got up to 4.5-4.55%, the ones with deep pockets at the front of the parade could weather it.

Unknown
COMMENT
Not uniform across the tech sector, as some are hitting lows.

That's right. If you look at the NASDAQ 100, there are a heck of a lot making new lows, and the majority are certainly sitting below their 50-day MAs. But the big mega-cap guys are holding it up. The top 5 stocks account for about 30% of the NASDAQ 100.

Unknown
COMMENT
Nibbling at some of the tech underperformers?

What's really running it is this whole AI revolution. It's the picks and shovels right now, and the rest will join in the parade. But for now it's still the infrastructure guys -- think data centres, infrastructure, server suppliers, semiconductors.

He continues to trim and then goes to the infrastructure (hardware) side of things. Interesting, because from 2011 to 2022 it was all about the software. Once in a while, the pendulum would swing over to the hardware, but it's swung way over there right now. Even guys like DELL and CSCO, the servers to data centres, have done tremendously well.

Unknown
COMMENT
How long before companies see a return on picks and shovels investment?

It will probably happen for the end users, he's not sure about the software guys. Everyone's being forced to be a "first adopter" of AI. It's supposed to help the bottom line and margins. There's a narrative out there that the software companies are going to take a back seat, because people will be able to get their analytics from the AI tools embedded in the hardware. We're seeing this in both education and healthcare.

Unknown
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Dead money for a couple of months?

Great run, fully priced. Screens for iPhones, TVs, and laptops. With virtual reality a trend, it's getting into headsets. King of the hill on technology, no lack of demand. To add, do it in thirds at $200-205, $190, and in the $180s.

(Analysts’ price target is $209.00)
electrical / electronic
BUY ON WEAKNESS

It's done OK, but not as great as the big names. 12-month target is $6.55. Pretty widely held. Removed from the TSX Composite, so that dragged it out of some portfolios. Buy in thirds here at $4.70, $4.50, and $4.25.

Technology
PARTIAL SELL
Lam Research Corp

Take a bit off, and put proceeds into its competitor ASML.

Technology
HOLD
NVIDIA Corporation

The largest holding in his fund at 8.7%. He's no longer even writing calls on this one, which means he's no longer hedging this particular position. Analysts' target is not too far away, but every time stock reaches the price target, analysts just nudge it up. Set up rolling stops.

He stress tests his positions every morning. The #1 risk used to be the supply side. Now it's demand, but their order book goes well into 2026, so it shouldn't be an issue.

(Analysts’ price target is $141.00)
computer software / processing
HOLD

Was supposed to be the next big NVDA, and that's why he holds it, but it's lagged. Pretty good runway. He's taken a bit of profit. 

(Analysts’ price target is $190.00)
electrical / electronic
BUY
Astera Labs

Hasn't moved, but he thinks it will. Makes hyperscalers run faster and more efficiently, and most of them own it. 

Technology
HOLD
ASML Holding
Exit point?

His 12-month target is $1160, still decent runway, he hasn't trimmed yet. King of the highway in etching. The one running behind them is CAJ.

But if you're concerned about ASML, or your position's getting too big, take some profits and move some over to CAJPY.

electrical / electronic
HOLD
Fortinet Inc

Hold for now, but he wouldn't hold it going into earnings, estimated to be August 2. Management is tremendous, but very conservative, and they lowball numbers and then stock rolls over.

If you ever get a chance to buy CRWD, that's a good one in the space.

Technology
BUY

A good one to put some money towards.

Technology
TRADE
Enghouse Systems

He's traded in and out of it, not really invested for the long haul. Hasn't performed all that well. Builds the business the way CSU does, but without the success.

computer software / processing
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