President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1425 Opinions
It certainly helps out on the software side, because they're more leveraged.
Imagine a chart set up like the rings on a dartboard. It will depict the infrastructure that's been built out over the last couple of years.
In the middle, the bull's eye, is the power grid. It provides the power for everything else that's going to happen. Names like NRG, PPL Corp, DUK, SO. A lot of US names. Interestingly, the utilities side is up 25-27% YTD.
Moving to the second ring, there lie the data centres. All the way from the hyperscalers like AWS and Azure to EQIX and DLR. That's the backbone of the AI stack.
The third ring is communication infrastructure. Boring, but essential. 5G. Names like VZ, CSCO, and JNPR.
On the outer ring, you find the semiconductors. From NVDA to ARMH. Designers, foundries, equipment suppliers, to manufacturers.
Right now, you definitely want to be invested in the semiconductors, because we're still only second or third inning. Data centres are also attractive. As well, good dividends come out of the communications area. Really, anything except utilities (though they're up a lot this year).
If infrastructure is what's been built out, the stack is where we're going.
Imagine another bull's eye chart setup. In the middle, you have all the cloud storage.
Around that, you have the data analytics. Here you'll find DDOG, MDB, and the like.
Third ring is what's happening right now, which is machine-learning models. Gemini from GOOG, Watson from IBM, Claude from Anthropic. All the algorithms are here, processing everything to get to the outer circle.
Outer circle involves the applications. He thinks this is where the puck is going over the next year. It can be very broad, or industry- and company-specific. NFLX, SNAP, ADBE, CRM. Happening in education with DUOL. A good point to note is that model training could actually eat the lunch of some of these applications.
If you don't own, don't buy. If you already own it, and it's in a registered portfolio, perhaps hold on (as you can't take advantage of capital losses). In a non-registered portfolio, there are better places to get more visibility for the future.
Stock price has almost been halved, so it has good value down here. Its technology is state of the art. Litigation problems are focused on management and accounting irregularities; an overhang that keeps him away. Whereas litigation of those in the Mag 7 is par for the course due to their various monopolies.
Great idea. 12-month price target of $828, decent runway. Will benefit from model training that's specific to certain industries. So instead of spending 15 minutes trying to find a movie to watch, the algorithms will actually cater to what the viewer's needs and wants are. Great example of where applications will be company-specific on the entertainment side.
Model training is happening right now but he really feels that, looking out 1-3 years, NFLX will be a great beneficiary.
12-month price target of $79, still a bit of room. On the chart, you can see the highs that go back to the early summer. Buy 1/3 here around $68, another at just under $64 where there seems to be some support, and the final 1/3 at just over $60. Put in a stop around $54-55.
Concentration risk, but its manufacturing and platform solutions are state of the art. Client base includes hyperscalers and service providers. Extremely well run.
Blown through price targets. He's taken about 2/3 of his position off, still holds about a 1.5% position. Enterprise contracts have really started to flourish. His researcher in Silicon Valley tells him that PLTR really seems to be the place attracting the best talent on the data analytics side, thereby delivering enviable customized products.
(Analysts’ price target is $29.00)He likes to spread his investment across the whole chip sector. There are 4 areas: foundries, manufacturers, equipment suppliers (see his Past Top Picks), designers.
Foundries are agnostic; he'd probably pick TSM. In the manufacturers, he'd pick MU, as it both designs and manufacturers. For the designers, he'd definitely pick NVDA.
Great run, but now a pullback along with the sector. Not a tremendous runway ahead. Topped out around $37-38 a number of times. Take some profit above $35.50-$36. If it breaks out above $38, get back in.
He sold most, but still retains a small 1% position. Very cheap, other companies are interested. It all comes down to execution. If you didn't own it, you could pick it up here, and let it go around $25-26 for a trade.
He's not concerned, because its monopolistic attributes attract this kind of scrutiny. Growth is phenomenal. Getting into other business ventures. Moat is expanding. Still likes it, especially compared to peer options.
Still a decent runway ahead. 12-month price target of $258. Has built a moat around the wafer and fabrication side, over 50% market share. Buy it here around $198, another 1/3 in low $180s, and final 1/3 in low $170s.
Seems to be better managed now. Focus on software in autonomous and electric vehicles. On top of that, number of lucrative partnerships around the world. Interesting, doesn't own, but is getting close. Doesn't think it will be a double from here.
(Analysts’ price target is $7.00)Will probably go higher, and to the detriment of INTC. 12-month price target of $195, just below the peak earlier this year. Well-managed designer. Very innovative. Not in his fund, but in separately managed accounts.