
President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1895 Opinions
They owned it when it was called Yandex, something like the Google of Russia. The company moved to Israel and the Netherlands. Nebius specializes in building out a full AI stack. It has legs with a $19 billion deal with Microsoft which gives them cash flow. The recent META announcement has created competition which caused the drop. It's starting to come back now.
They own it in a separately manged account, not their main portfolios. It is somewhat expensive along with some volatility so he is selling some calls. There is competition with website security and other software companies have built pipes eg. Datadog. Their price target is $275 which is its recent peak.
It dropped a lot in May and has been going through the usual IPO euphoria. He has a 12 month target of $45, well above its recent lows. It is a great Canadian story in quantum computing on the photon technology side, light emitting to build qubits, and needing only room temperature and not freezing temperatures. He considers it a pretty cool company and its software stack is well used. He would buy up to the 2 to 3% level but not over 4%.
It is similar to Arista with Internet and Ethernet connectivity. It is part of the expanding role of optical fiber due to the limitations of copper. It is difficult to break into optical. Bell buys their optical stuff from Corning. He has a 12 month price target of $265 and you could buy in thirds, adding it as it goes down.
He still owns it but is selling some calls to raise some income. He raised the hedge for protection of the portfolio after such a big run. It was only about $175 a year ago. Had $111 billion in revenue with 49% gross margin in the last quarter. He feels it is pretty fully priced.
Like Apple it was sort of a sleeper last year. It sells processes and analogue chips, very different than GPU's. Is involved in networking products and services. The AI stack explosion needed their products and technology. It is fully priced according to analysts' price targets.
It has had a big run so don't chase it. When stock prices go parabolic price targets go out the window. He compares Micron to SK Hynix (Korean) which IPO's on Friday and could take some of the liquidity out of the memory space. Also Sandisk and Seagate which are also a bit stretched. One company has a price target of $1800 but he has sold 2/3 of his position because he has made so much money. It is one of the kings in computer memory and data storage solutions. You could buy it at $975 and lower.