Kim Bolton
President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1681 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
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Big Win
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Win
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Neutral
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Loss
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Big Loss
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | 264 32.96% | 152 18.98% | 92 11.49% | 151 18.85% | 142 17.73% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.71 | 20 9.26% | 69 31.94% | 55 25.46% | 64 29.63% | 8 3.70% | |
| 6 Months | 4.98 | 68 33.66% | 42 20.79% | 18 8.91% | 39 19.31% | 35 17.33% | |
| 12 Months | 4.92 | 78 42.86% | 22 12.09% | 14 7.69% | 24 13.19% | 44 24.18% | |
| 2 Years | 4.68 | 69 47.92% | 16 11.11% | 3 2.08% | 19 13.19% | 37 25.69% | |
| 5 Years | 3.72 | 29 50.88% | 3 5.26% | 2 3.51% | 5 8.77% | 18 31.58% |
Stock Opinions by Kim Bolton
That's the $1M question. Things are very fully priced right now. NASDAQ's trading at just over 28x PE, and S&P just over 24x. Historically it should be ~19x. There's sentiment that the US Fed Reserve will cut come September by 0.25%.
When you look at what's really driving it, it's the AI story. Here in Canada, the commodity side has done extremely well except for the energy complex. But base and precious metals are ruling the roost.
If you look back to 4 years ago, CPI topped out around 9%. It's come down and, really for the last year and a bit, has stabilized. He rather doubts it's going to get down to the Fed's target 2%. Everything's lined up now for them to cut by 0.25%.
Who knows what happens come December. Interest rates coming down will be reflected in the valuations, and that's why you can get PE multiples up this high. They're at nosebleed levels right now.
It's very much taken a back seat, mainly because Mr. Trump just turns it on and turns it off. Everyone's gotten numb to that. People are focusing now on price and earnings. You can't really trade or invest based on tariffs or negotiations, but you can trade on valuations.
Really likes it, especially because they bought CYBR (one of his stocks ;) Difficult call at this point. His price target is $185, and today it's trading ~$177. Then it will have to digest CYBR (still needs both regulatory and shareholder approval). China may use this as a pawn in negotiations.
For new $$, he'd choose ANET instead.
Views it the same way as Intel. He feels the investor's pain, but finally got out of the way. Slow on execution with AI, and hopes this will change. Firefly had pretty good fanfare and brought many software components together. Doesn't think AI will eat their lunch because AI is more about single solutions than multiple solutions. Lots of brand loyalty.
Will still be around in 3 years, but 10 years could be a different story.
For 2026, the big thing is going to be the Optimus robot. Company estimates it will sell 20-30k of these $20k robots. They're already being used in factories. Also things going on with Grok, the large language model; needs a partner, and he feels it will be AAPL.
EVs are important, but you have to look to the future with this one. May be dead money for the next quarter, but will absolutely bounce back with Optimus.
12-month price target of $620. Hasn't trimmed, still second-largest holding in his fund. Earnings were very strong, especially coming out of the cloud. So many strong horses in the race. Very strong in AI participation.
Buy in thirds here, under $500, and ~$470.
Being acquired by PANW, but still trading. Strong execution. Usually in a takeover situation, he lightens up or lets the whole position go. But he's still holding because thinks so well of management. Plus, closing is not until Q2 or Q3 of next year, so anything could happen in the meantime including a competing bid.
