Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Market. September is the weakest month for stocks globally. The first 5 trading days this month have all been on the downside. On a seasonality basis, the market drops dramatically, and then tends to pull up around the middle of October. Every year, something unusual happens between the middle of June and mid-October, which causes volatility in the markets. Last year it was BREXIT and the previous year was China. 2008 was a world financial crisis. The VIX, at this time of year, from July right through until the middle of October, has a strong period of seasonal volatility. This year there have been several little spikes along the way, but hasn’t shown up strongly this year. What could be the spike this year? It could be North Korea, a couple of hurricanes in the Gulf, problems with Trump getting his agenda through Congress. There are all kinds of things happening in the next few weeks, which could trigger that scenario. Prior to the release of 3^rd quarter results, analysts historically have been overly optimistic with their estimates in the 1^st half. When it gets to September, they rethink and decide to pull the numbers back a little, which causes markets to come under pressure. Right around the middle of October through to the end of the year, the economically sensitive areas get particularly strong. Also, historically the months of January and into early February have been some of the weaker ones for the year.

Historically Canadian banks reach a fairly important low around the end of September, and then move higher through until the end of November, when banks report 4^th quarter results. CEOs love to give you good news at that time. We are just about to enter a period of seasonal strength for this bank. Chart shows the price has been coming down, but has formed a nice base. Recently the stock has started to show positive momentum, and also has moved above its 20-day moving average. It might be a little early for a seasonal trade, but this is an interesting opportunity going into the fall.

Historically this had a very strong seasonality during the summer as the rest of the market languished. It only does very well until the beginning of November. Chart shows it has already established an upward trend, and it would be nice to see it move above its current level, which would confirm that it is in an upward trend. A good seasonal trade right through until the beginning of November.

Historically REITs have done quite well in the summer. This one shows a nice upward trend and you are into a period of seasonal strength, which only lasts until the end of September. If you own the stock, continue to hold.

He is not familiar with the seasonality of this, but logic would suggest that since it is involved in the base metal sector, it should normally be doing well near the end of the year. Technically, the stock has completed a nice little base, and has just broken above the base, which is quite encouraging. It fits in with something else. The price of nickel, a major part of this company’s production, has recently broken on the upside, and looks like it wants to move higher with other base metals.

Technically, this has just broken a support level today. The stock is in a downward trend, so there is downside risk technically. It has yet to show signs of bottoming. Historically, it has done well in the summer, but is just not doing it this year. There are better opportunities elsewhere.

Seasonality does not apply to this because of all the things that have been going on during the last few months. Technically, there has been a low on the stock, followed by a Buffet bump and the stock reached what seems to be an overhead resistance level. There is basically a trading range now, and it wouldn’t be unusual for that range to stay there for quite a while.

This is clearly in a downward trend. That is not unusual. Most of the Canadian energy stocks have been in that trend for the last while. There is good reason to believe that the company, mainly a gas producer, is going to show signs of bottoming. The stock has support just below current levels. Other gassy stocks, during the last couple of weeks, has started to form some base building patterns. He would like to see this perform a technical pattern before recommending it. Put it on your radar list, because historically these kinds of stocks do well at this time of year.

A base metal stock that has a very distinct seasonality. Historically, the best time has been from October to approximately May of each year. Currently, this is still in a trading range and September could be a little difficult for base metal stocks. Watch this, because it looks like it is lining up for the next period of seasonal strength at around the middle of October.

(A Top Pick June 2/17.)

(A Top Pick June 2/17. Up 2%.) This peaked right around the 3^rd week of July, which is what he had predicted. From its high point to now, the stock is down about 3%. If you had owned the Cdn ETF (FHH-T), exactly the same product, it would have been down 10%, because of the Cdn$ moving higher.

(A Top Pick June 2/17. Up 1%.)

This has a history of bottoming right around the end of August, and then moving higher through until the 2^nd week in December. Natural gas prices have been bottoming during the last few weeks. Very briefly, a few days ago, this moved above its trading range. These normally go significantly higher, usually around the middle of December. You have to be aware that there is a contango involved in this particular product. His preference is to not to play natural gas directly, but to do it with equity securities.

Virtually every year, they announce new products which usually come out around the beginning of October. Historically, this moves higher prior to the announcement. Seasonality ends after they have made the announcement of new products. In this case, the announcement is going to be coming on September 12th. We are getting very close to the end of the seasonal strength. If you own it, you might want to take some money off the table at around September 12.

Oil? Crude oil has a period of seasonal strength from late January right through until May of each year, and does extend into September, but from September through until January it tends to move lower. The time to play crude oil is in the spring. Technically, it is getting close to a longer-term support level, but is still in a downward trend.