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Don Vialoux
Research Analyst at TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM
Member since: May '04 · 1945 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
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Big Win
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Win
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Neutral
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Big Loss
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.11 | 144 41.03% | 87 24.79% | 49 13.96% | 45 12.82% | 26 7.41% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.03 | 16 22.54% | 21 29.58% | 27 38.03% | 7 9.86% | 0 0.00% | |
| 6 Months | 4.01 | 17 23.94% | 22 30.99% | 14 19.72% | 15 21.13% | 3 4.23% | |
| 12 Months | 4.07 | 26 36.62% | 20 28.17% | 5 7.04% | 9 12.68% | 11 15.49% | |
| 2 Years | 4.15 | 35 50.00% | 16 22.86% | 2 2.86% | 9 12.86% | 8 11.43% | |
| 5 Years | 4.29 | 50 73.53% | 8 11.76% | 1 1.47% | 5 7.35% | 4 5.88% |
Stock Opinions by Don Vialoux
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Seasonal Investing. The best time for seasonal investing is the 3 weeks starting in mid-December. That is the strongest time for the S&P 500 and the TSE. During the last 27 periods, the TSE Composite has gone up 23 times with an average gain of 2.4%. That period is the end of tax loss selling pressures. There is also diminished institutional activity where companies close operations in the middle of December.
Typically, the stock does very well when there is greater demand for iron ore, and typically does well when steel stocks are doing well. This has recently broken its key resistance and has a longer-term upward trend. The technicals are certainly positive.
Historically US financial stocks have done very well from approximately January through until April of each year. The chart shows a nice upward trend and the stock recently broke to new highs.
Technically, this has a pretty good chart. The stock recently broke out above its trading range, so it is definitely in an upward trend. Relative strength is also a positive. Seasonally, we are just entering into the period of seasonal strength. It looks like it is going to go higher both technically and seasonally in the next 3-4 months.
This just broke out to an all-time high. Canadian bank stocks have very distinct seasonality. Historically they have gone up as you get close to the end of the year. Normally they peak around the end of December. This year we have had an extension which has taken it into a higher level and an all-time high. Stocks like this, once they get into a new year, have a tendency to have an underperformance in the new year, the beginning of January through to the end of March.
This has been in an upward trend, but struggled a little recently, and has been underperforming the market. It's in a trading range of between $67.50 and $80. If you own this, you should probably continue to hold it. If it breaks below its support level of around $67.50, that would complete a double top pattern. If it moves above its previous high, of about $78, that would be quite encouraging.
How do you use Bollinger bands? Bollinger bands give you a range for a security to trade within 2 standard deviations. Most stocks will trade within those bands over a long period of time. This stock is an interesting one because, for a long period of time, it has been coming way down. Bollinger bands have been getting tighter and tighter and then, all of a sudden the news came out that they were going to reduce production and uranium oxide immediately went up 15%. Using Bollinger bands can be very useful except when there is specific news that comes out on a company like this, which can have a significant impact. Seasonally, it has done very well from November right through until April of each year. It hasn't done that for the last few years. This year, we might have something going for us, and it looks like the stock could expand beyond its Bollinger bands for a period of time.
This has very strong seasonality. It normally starts around the end of January, and moves through until springtime. It’s been in a trading range for the last couple of weeks, and will probably be there for another 2-3 weeks until about the middle of January. That will be the time for an opportunity.
