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Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOBUYJun 23, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 09, 2026. Market Open.
Exposure to the 4 horsemen of Western Canadian growth: gas, LNG, condensate, and crude. Partnership with META. Heartland Extraction Plant should see more volumes. Leverage to the pipeline going west out of Alberta. Exposure to Cedar LNG facility under construction.
Low double-digit internal growth, plus dividend yield, gives you ~15% annual compound return. Yield is 4.65%.
They will benefit from the long-term investments that Canadian government is making in Western Canada, like growing oil and natural gas production (LNG Canada). They have a good track record of completing projects on time and on budget. Always a good dividend payer, now at 4.5%. The midstreams are a safe way to play ongoing production in Western Canada.
There are some overhangs on deals with KKR and Apollo but it is well run and has the best growth prospects of similar companies. The coming increase of LNG is good for Pembina as the Canadian infrastructure gets larger. Even at higher prices today it is showing strength.
A name for a good dividend and safety. Pipelines are not quite as good as utilities, because they're perceived as being commodity-sensitive (even though they're really not).
You'll get your dividend, and the safety means you can sleep at night (and that's worth something). You can get diversification via funds and ETFs.
PPL is up 4% this year and 25% over 52 weeks. It's 18X earnings with a 3.23% dividend that has shown decent recent growth. Debt is high as is common in the sector, but OK earnings growth is expected over the next two years. Cash flow is high and stable, though we would like to see higher free cash flow conversion. The share count has declined over the past six years with buybacks. All in, we would consider it OK. Fundamentals and sector outlook are fine. It is priced well. We would not expect huge growth here, but we would consider it decent for income and potential growth over time.
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