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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate AEM as a TOP PICK.  As the Odyssey project moves towards underground mining by 2028 they expect annual gold production to grow to more than 500,000 ounces.  It trades at 1.3x book.  Cash reserves are growing, as they retire debt and buy back shares.  We recommend trailing up the stop-loss (from $52) to $60, looking to achieve $92 – upside potential of 28%.  Yield 2.3% 

(Analysts’ price target is $91.82)
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TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

With wildfire related production cuts ending, we again reiterate CVE as a TOP PICK.  Rainbow Lake production of 20,000 barrels per day is coming back online.  The company trades at 9x earnings, 1.6x book value and supports a 20% ROE.  Cash reserves are growing, allowing for an aggressive retirement of debt and the buying back of shares.  We continue to recommend a stop-loss at $20, looking to achieve $29 – upside potential over 25%.  Yield 2.3%

(Analysts’ price target is $29.66)
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TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

With strong cash flows allowing aggressive debt retirement and share buybacks, we reiterate VET as a TOP PICK.  About one-third of its production is based outside North America, diversifying its cash flow.  Windfall taxes in Europe, have taken some of the wind out of the sales, but the fundamentals still look good as it supports a 68% ROE and trades at 3.5x free cash flow versus peers at 7x.  We recommend trailing up the stop (from $13.00) to $14.50, looking to achieve $25.00 – upside potential over 40%.  Yield 1.9%

(Analysts’ price target is $25.85)
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 09/23, Down 2.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with UA is progressing well.  To be disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $6.00) to $6.50 at this time.  

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 04/23, Down 9.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with MRNA is stagnating.  To be disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $100) to $110 at this time.  

COMMENT

Fears of a recession are subsiding. The economy has been stronger than he and many expected, but he remains concerned about the effects of higher interest rates on consumers and businesses. US bank earnings now show that defaults have not creeped up, but he's watching this. Caution remains warranted. We are in an indebted economy that will eventually cause problems. Inflation is down (new numbers today), but everyday there are labour negotiations and higher wages will fuel inflation. Without lower rates, the economy will struggle. That's TDB for stock markets. Canadian stocks, such as energy, are yielding 6%. That's what he cares about.

BUY

He's bullish natural gas in western Canada. LNG Canada is coming online in 2025, a game changer for nat gas demand in Canada. Also, there have been two recent FIDs (final investment decisions) in the US, where LNG production is set to increase. All this means, more nat gas production and higher, more stable pricing. Likes TOU a lot, but owns the similar Arc Resources.

DON'T BUY

The US was a growth driver for them, but are facing more competition there. US telcos are falling as a whole. Also, in Canada there could be the launch of a wireless service without launching a network. And Rogers owns a big stake in CCA, so will Rogers delever following the Shaw deal? These are three overhands that have pressured shares. He prefers CCA's larger peers. Also, telecoms remain weakness.

BUY

A core holding. They've never cut the dividend and have grown it for many years. One of the best management teams anywhere in the world; are great counter-cyclical buyers. He's very bullish natural gas, which is another tailwind for CNQ. Their Oil Sands are best in class and will continue to produce steady cash flow.

BUY

The dividend is safe and in fact growing at the fastest rate among Canadian telcos at 5-7% this year. Pays 6.2%. He's about to buy more shares for himself and clients. Good long-term growth ahead because immigration is rising at high levels, a tailwind for Telus. But they're having problems with Telus International, so they lowered guidance. They invested in next-generation technology, good long term but will be lumpy. More competition comes with Shaw-Rogers, but this won't be a huge change. Shares are as cheap as they have been for a long time.

COMMENT

They might sell LB and there's a good market for Canadian banks now, but regulatory issues could block it. If you're sitting on a 30% profit, yes, you can take profits. Yields more than 4%.

HOLD
Is the US regional banking crisis over?

He's not sure that the crisis is over. Excess savings during Covid are waning as inflation bites. Canadian banks are valued reasonably, so are good to buy now as a long-term hold. But inflation could bite and trigger defaults and credit spreads widening on corporate bonds. He's waiting. You can buy a partial here and wait, because such shares could go lower. TD shares have moved from $78 to $83 recently. He bought, but is sitting tight.

PARTIAL BUY

Yields 6.4%, among the highest at Canadian banks. Clearly, there are problems. You're not paying a lot for this, and TD and Royal could drop further in an economic downturn. He's unsure if the CEO will stay long term or is a place-holder. Historically, buying the weakest Canadian bank has been a good strategy. In this sector, he's looking at BNS and CIBC, but isn't rushing into this space, because rising interest rates will hurt consumers (liquidity and the ability to pay loans). That said, it won't hurt to buy a partial position now.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 06/22, Down 6%)

This is set up well for the next decade. They process 25-33% of all natural gas in Western Canada. A massive infrastructure footprint there. They will probably buy (a portion of) Transmountain, and said they won't issue equity or at least very little. Can capital from KKR. A great company. Pays a 6.6% dividend.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 06/22, Down 36%)

He added shares on their downturn some months ago. The good thing with utilities are their regulated rate of return--this is essential to remember. Renewables have suffered cost increases and performance problems, but it's mostly been a sentiment-driven thing. Once confidence returns, AQN will be a higher stock.