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Today, The Monthly Gems by Allan Tong and Stockchase Insights commented about whether CCL, CB, FL.V, ABNB, AMZN, GOOG are stocks to buy or sell.
FL has seen some executive turnover, including the CFO quitting. But it also in May released its pre-feasibility study on the PAK project, outlining life-of-minee cash flow of $8B on an initial ~$500M capital cost and net present value of $2.6B. Drilling is ongoing. Insiders, owning 20%, have been small net buyers in the past six months. There has been chatter of government assistance with its project in terms of infrastructure and/or construction. Things are moving forward nicely here. '
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CB pays a good yield of 1.8%, has grown its sales and earnings decently over the past five years, with a five-year sales and earnings CAGR of 6.2% and 6.4%, respectively. Analysts estimate good growth in the future years, with earnings estimates of 19% and sales estimates of 7.5% for this year. Most insurance companies generate a significant amount of earnings from their investment portfolios, which are mostly made up of bonds, and so high interest rate environments can help their bottom line, however, decline in rates will also help bond prices. Management has done an excellent job and Evan Greenberg, the CEO has over 45 years of insurance experience and joined the company over 20 years ago. We think the name is buyable here.
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From a momentum standpoint the stock looks good, more than doubling this year and with a big jump in earnings expected in 2024. However, debt, at 31X cash flow, still makes us wary overall. To survive covid the sharecount nearly doubled since 2019 as it issued shares for capital. Going into a possible recession, we would still be cautious here overall. The easy money on the recovery has probably been made now, and it may be more challenging going forward.
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General Investing Mistakes: Not Doing Enough Research. After 35 years in the business, we’re still surprised by how little research investors do before they buy a stock. Some look at price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields, and that’s about it. Even professional investors often don’t do enough homework. During COVID-19, a famous investor talking on television about lending platform Upstart Holdings Inc. became completely flabbergasted when asked what the company actually did. He, unfortunately, became a meme.
Look at the company’s income statement, look at the balance sheet. Read all the company’s public documents and go through its investment presentations. Look at its history: Has the company done what was planned? How much stock does management own?
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DeepMind's many activities bode well for Alphabet's future. So, what about its current numbers? Alphabet trades at a low multiple, 27.5x, compared to its peers: Meta at 37x, Apple 32.73x and Amazon 303x. Their Android operating system is the most popular on the planet with a 71.63% market share, though trails Apple's iOS in the U.S. Meanwhile, Google Cloud is growing at 30%, but with 10% market share, still lagging AWS (32%) and Microsoft's Azure (23%). GOOG shares ran up this year, along with big tech, but have plateaued since mid-May. A definite buy on the next pullback.