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COMMENT
Are there still opportunities if you feel you've missed the rally? It's almost two different markets. You have the mega-tech, and then everything else in cyclical sectors. The opportunity is in cyclicals. You haven't missed the trade in stocks more injured by the pandemic such as industrials, consumer discretionary, and energy, which are more of a cyclical value trade. Tech stocks benefited from the stay at home stage. A "return to work" stock is one that will benefit once the economy gets back to normal life.
COMMENT
Energy and gold. Gold does best when there's a threat of deflation and currency devaluation. The last couple of days, energy has been working and gold has not. There's a fear of inflation. In the first time since 2016, he's only now adding to energy stocks on the services side and the producing side.
DON'T BUY
He cares about the data: valuation, price momentum, stability. This one did well as a consumer staple during the pandemic. Very stable, but a bit expensive. 22x price to earnings. Good balance sheet, reasonable yield and payout ratio. You won't go wrong with it, but better opportunities elsewhere.
Consumer Products
WAIT
Likes its price momentum and stability. Has not been harmed by Covid. At the upper end of what's a reasonable price, but he holds it because of such strong price momentum. Wary of adding new money at this stage, as starting to see a rotation from growth to value. If you have a 10-year horizon, you won't go wrong with a quality company like this.
Jason MannOwned
computer softwareprocessing
HOLD
Renewable energy has been hot. Has underperformed its peers a bit. Has a small holding for its yield. Well covered payout ratio of 65%. Debt is a bit of a concern. Reasonable price, decent value, decent volatility. Yield is 5.4%.
Jason MannOwned
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
HOLD
Undervalued, solid yield, reasonable payout ratio. Caught up in the value trade. Scores in top 2% of valuation. Will do better when yields start to rise. Will catch a bid with inflation. Don't give up on it.
Jason MannOwned
insurance
HOLD
Very cheap, trading below book value. Balance sheet is a little heavy. Great yield. Historically miss earnings. Consolidate a declining industry and try to rationalize it by cutting costs. He holds if for the yield and the valuation. Have to be patient.
Jason MannOwned
publishingprinting
BUY
Wouldn't be a seller here. Solid combination of momentum, stability, and price. Defensive. Pretty good at acquisitions and growth. Not a big yield, as they deploy cash into opportunities. If you see a real value rotation, you might see some price weakness. Long run, he'd be a buyer.
Jason MannOwned
food stores
COMMENT
Will consumer confidence ever recover? If you look at the US, even with its high unemployment, average income of the average American is actually and surprisingly up with all the stimulus. Consumer discretionary goods were flying off the shelves. But this could come to a grinding halt if money-printing stops or if we don't get a vaccine. The market is looking through all this to where it thinks we'll be 6 months from now.
BUY
Got hit in the general selloff. It's in the cyclical/infrastructure bucket. Challenge is it's just coming off the bottom on price momentum. Scores well on valuation, yield, and ROE. Payout ratio is a bit high at 89%. Would like to see more cash flow. Lots of debt. Should start to see some pickup as the oil patch improves. Yield is 8%.
Jason MannOwned
oilgas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 26/19, Down 15%) Caught up in the cyclical/value selloff. Have infrastructure that can't be replicated. Extremely good valuation. 8x price to earnings. Great balance sheet. Low payout ratio. Sold off, but it's coming back. Iron ore and steel prices are coming back. Beneficiary of inflation.
Jason MannOwned
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 26/19, Up 53%) In the sweet spot. Friendly energy sources. Scores high on valuation, price momentum, high ROE. Balance sheet relatively levered like all its peers. If we start to see a more meaningful rotation, may come under pressure. Payout ratio of 70%, with a yield of 3.2%.
Jason MannOwned
Utilities
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