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Stock Opinions by Jason Mann

COMMENT
Fourth straight day of decline in equities. Rally that started after the rout in June is looking more like a bear market rally, unfortunately. We've rolled over and are at least likely to test the lows. Sparked by the Fed. Notion of a pivot was taken off the table. Fed is going to raise rates and hold them there for a time, which has changed the narrative on stocks. Bond market wasn't all that fussed about it, until the last couple of days.
Unknown

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COMMENT
Stagflation. Where inflation is high and sticky, but growth is slowing. Q2 earnings reports didn't show a big degradation in earnings. But the challenge is the outlook is getting worse, and guidance and analysts' estimates are starting to materially decrease. The one good August CPI print at 8.5% came down only because of energy, which is pretty volatile and already seems to be on its way back up. Inflation could just as easily reverse the other way. Stagflation is a very tough environment for equities.
Unknown
COMMENT
Timeline of a downturn. If we're going into a typical recession, which seems more likely, earnings could decline by 15%, and it takes 18 months for that recession to run its course. Stocks start to discount the end of the recession 6 months earlier. Spring/summer next year could see the market finding a bottom.
Unknown
SHORT
Lots of hype on lithium. Auto industry needs a ton. Challenge is many companies aren't profitable yet, and the valuations are very expensive due to hype. He's slightly short the stock. Positive trend, but expensive valuation and very volatile. No cashflow.
Mining
DON'T BUY
Middle of the pack. Somewhat expensive. No issue with net debt. Mission critical. Trend is neutral.
communications / media
COMMENT
Factors for picking stocks. Positive momentum, reasonable valuation, lower volatility or stable. He doesn't have buy or sell targets. It's a matter of is the stock starting a new uptrend, and is it cheap enough? He never picks a bottom or top. He wants cheap, rising, and stable.
Unknown
WAIT
Poor trend. Bucketed with the growth at any price stocks. Great business over the long run, but stock became too expensive. Getting cheaper, but still 36x earnings. No debt. He'd want the trend to turn around before getting interested.
computer software / processing
COMMENT
Canadian bank earnings. Rougher earnings session for the banks, and some of them came off pretty hard. For the banks, it depends on your thinking. He tends to be more medium-term, so trends do matter. Longer term, banks are fantastic businesses, and an oligopoly in Canada. Depends on what your timeline is. In retirement, you may not want to hold for 10+ years, and you may want to pause until we get some resolution on the economic outlook and the yield curve starts to steepen again. Rising rates is theoretically good for banks, as they can charge higher interest, but they have to fund that at well. The other challenge is trading and investment banking has really suffered. Worst year for IPOs in 35 years, plus economic slowdown has caused these areas to dry up. He's neutral until we get clarity on the economy.
Unknown
HOLD
Holds a small position for the yield of 5.6%. High quality, like all the banks. Pretty reasonable payout ratio. Cheap at 8.7x earnings. Probably more volatility for the group as we work through recession fears.
banks
SHORT
PE is about 30x. Viewed as a tech growth darling, and the multiples have really contracted. Still not all that cheap, middle of the pack. Mediocre value, very negative trend, and negative volatility in a pretty strong downtrend. Until one of those things changes, it stays on the short side.
computer software
COMMENT
Covering shorts. A stock can attract a short if it has mediocre value, negative trend, negative volatility. Until one of those things changes, a stock will stay on the short side. A trigger would be if a stock declines over 40% in a 6-month window, as then it becomes too dangerous to stay short. Or if the cost to borrow it goes above 10% a year, which is a sign that too many people are shorting a stock. Those types of stocks can become meme stocks or get caught up in a junk rally like the one in July.
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 07/21, Down 23%) Merger with Legato. Steel prices have come off, so this one has languished. Incredibly cheap. Less than 3x forward earnings. 97% ROE. High quality balance sheet and business. Don't sell here, as price has more than discounted a recession.
steel
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 07/21, Down 15%) Today it's cheap, versus long-term expectations. Trading in line with peers. Lumber companies have been trading sideways at best on fears of major slowdown in housing. They're discounting Armageddon, and he doesn't see that happening. IFP bought 16%, and they're not done.
Forestry
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 07/21, Down 18%) Slow and steady. Decline is more or less in line with financials in general. Yield of 7.9%, modest payout ratio, trades at 1x book value, 11x PE. Depends on your timeline. He owns it for the solid yield.
mngmnt / diversified
HOLD
Energy is his top net sector exposure. Cheap. Scores near the top on price momentum and valuation, trades at 10x earnings, recent beat. Aims to be debt free by year's end. Incredible cashflows. Low capex spend. See his Top Picks.
oil / gas
Showing 1 to 15 of 841 entries