He would bet against any company getting taken out in the next 6 months. He lost a lot of money on this one. He is happy to still own it although they could go bankrupt. They paired own the debt by selling off assets. They have to watch what is going on in the oil price. They have done quite a bit of hedging but will be free of it during next year and the stock will depend more on resource prices. It is a huge risk to own it.
To stay ahead as a technology company is difficult. It looks like iPhone sales will come down now. It should be a debt free company but they have a huge debt load. Most other tech companies have lost their luster at some point. The question is when it will happen to this one. He would rather they pay a dividend to shareholders than to have their debt. He questions their huge share buy-backs as well because they are doing it so far above book value.
(A Top Pick Dec 08/17, Down 24%) All his picks from a year ago have done badly. This is a huge insurance company out of Holland. It is a very big company. They pay a very nice dividend that just went up 14%. The cap ratios are better. They are selling off some things that will reduce revenues but they expect to growth them back. Dividends allow him to be stupid longer and he is happy to sit with this one. (Guest's target: $20).
(A Top Pick Dec 08/17, Down 61%) He just doubled down on it. They got hit in oil and gas but they did a lot of smart things. They took care of expenses and changed some equipment. They moved a lot of operations from Canada to the US, where they are doing better. They have nominal debt after having taken care of it.
(A Top Pick Dec 08/17, Down 44%) They are patent trolls. They have lumpy earnings quarter to quarter. Recently they have been losing money. They moved partly to the Internet-Of-Things. They won a big suit against AAPL-Q but they are appealing it. Legislation has made it hard for a company to be a patent troll now.
Crypto currencies, AI, and marijuana. The key here is choosing the right companies. He does not have any recommendations, however. You are going to have bad actors and you have to stay away from them. AI is the big buzzword now and choosing the right companies is still the right thing to do. He only buys companies that have been around for 10 years.
Tax loss selling is huge this year and has been accelerated because of what is going on. He does most of his buying this time of year. Normally there is a Santa Clause rally worth a half percent or more. He never transfers between currencies. He would prefer, if he had to, to transfer US to Canadian right now because it is so beaten up.
He owned it years ago. It got taken over and he did really well. They had a lot of difficulties. Retail is not going to die. He never sells to take a tax loss in December but if you want to get it off the table, then match it up against winners. Ask yourself why you bought it and ask if it still makes sense. Stay disciplined but learn from your mistakes.
He looked at it closely after 2008. It is not on his watch list now although it was for a number of years. He never pulled the trigger. He does not see this bank going under but it will go with the cycle. Things may or may not turn around any time soon. It will move up significantly at some point in time. (Analysts’ price target is $18.50)
They have been getting so many licenses that it should help with revenues going forward. It pays a dividend that is pretty good at this level. They will be looking to do some takeovers that are accretive. It could quadruple, depending on the law suits they are dealing with, especially AAPL-Q. (Analysts’ price target is $2.08)
It is the second time he has owned it. They are now looking at strategic alternatives. Every year they were losing money until recently. They may get taken over and it would be over $2. They have taken care of lowering a number of their expenses.
Richardson Securities, one of their businesses, is the largest independent money manager in Canada. Two years ago they were raising money for commodity companies and now they are doing it for oil and gas companies. Last quarter was so great they did a special dividend and re-instituted a regular one. The balance sheet is pretty good. They just sold their US operations. Once a dividend is re-instituted, it has a lot of weight with Benj. Maybe TD-T will buy them as they have considered it before.