Stock Opinions by Benj Gallander - Stockchase Experts
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Benj Gallander @

On Stockchase since : Apr 2002

President at Contra the Heard Investment Letter

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Stock Opinions by Benj Gallander - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

December 24, 2018

Market. In October he said there was a minimum 85% chance of the market dropping over 20% by the end of 2020 and he did say it could happen this year. It is not surprising him. It is the biggest December sell-off since the depression. Debt levels of governments were not tamed during good times. He is surprised only by how much it has come down and how quickly. Markets were really high and people recognized the problems. People are asking what governments will do as we head into a recession. Human psychology says that when things are bad you run out the door. It could be a reasonable time to buy now and there could be more opportunity ahead.
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Market. In October he said there was a minimum 85% chance of the market dropping over 20% by the end of 2020 and he did say it could happen this year. It is not surprising him. It is the biggest December sell-off since the depression. Debt levels of governments were not tamed during good times. He is surprised only by how much it has come down and how quickly. Markets were really high and people recognized the problems. People are asking what governments will do as we head into a recession. Human psychology says that when things are bad you run out the door. It could be a reasonable time to buy now and there could be more opportunity ahead.
Unknown
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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WATCH
Bombardier Inc (B)(BBD.B-T) 

December 24, 2018

He is looking at it. It has been on his watch list for quite a while. They made the same mistake as before when they ran up debt. They are selling off things that will hurt them. They don't seem to care that much about Canada now. Governments may be less likely to feed them in the future. It could be a good buy later on. He would rather sit back and watch it.
transportation equip & components
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He is looking at it. It has been on his watch list for quite a while. They made the same mistake as before when they ran up debt. They are selling off things that will hurt them. They don't seem to care that much about Canada now. Governments may be less likely to feed them in the future. It could be a good buy later on. He would rather sit back and watch it.
transportation equip & components
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$1.860
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
High Liner Foods(HLF-T) 

December 24, 2018

He did well when he held it just before they started the dividend. He missed a lot of the major upside. It is back on the stock watch list. They pay a lovely dividend. But they have a fairly high debt load. He might buy it later on.
Consumer Products
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He did well when he held it just before they started the dividend. He missed a lot of the major upside. It is back on the stock watch list. They pay a lovely dividend. But they have a fairly high debt load. He might buy it later on.
Consumer Products
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$6.600
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
TorstarCorp (B)(TS.B-T) 

December 24, 2018

He used to own it and sold it at a slight loss. It is in a sector having major difficulties. He continues to watch it but is not brave enough to buy it. It has no debt and the government is being more generous with media companies. If they keep on losing money then that is a problem.
publishing/printing
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He used to own it and sold it at a slight loss. It is in a sector having major difficulties. He continues to watch it but is not brave enough to buy it. It has no debt and the government is being more generous with media companies. If they keep on losing money then that is a problem.
publishing/printing
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$0.640
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
BlackBerry(BB-T) 

December 24, 2018

He has faith in John Chen because Mr. Chen has done turnarounds before. The reason BB-T came down so far is due to the market. When the market turns, this stock can turn around more quickly and move up by leaps and bounds. It has debt but have deep pockets.
electrical/electronic
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He has faith in John Chen because Mr. Chen has done turnarounds before. The reason BB-T came down so far is due to the market. When the market turns, this stock can turn around more quickly and move up by leaps and bounds. It has debt but have deep pockets.
electrical/electronic
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$9.160
Owned Owned
Yes

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WEAK BUY
Extendicare Inc(EXE-T) 

December 24, 2018

It has been beaten up badly and he is surprised by how much. The dividend is reasonable but the payout ratio is a little higher than he likes. It is not a contra stock because the upside is not high enough but he bought it for the dividend with capital appreciation. It has a lot of government support in Ontario. The increase in minimum wage hurt EXE-T.
other services
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It has been beaten up badly and he is surprised by how much. The dividend is reasonable but the payout ratio is a little higher than he likes. It is not a contra stock because the upside is not high enough but he bought it for the dividend with capital appreciation. It has a lot of government support in Ontario. The increase in minimum wage hurt EXE-T.
other services
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$5.970
Owned Owned
Yes

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SPECULATIVE BUY
Pengrowth Energy(PGF-T) 

December 24, 2018

He would bet against any company getting taken out in the next 6 months. He lost a lot of money on this one. He is happy to still own it although they could go bankrupt. They paired own the debt by selling off assets. They have to watch what is going on in the oil price. They have done quite a bit of hedging but will be free of it during next year and the stock will depend more on resource prices. It is a huge risk to own it.
oil/gas
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He would bet against any company getting taken out in the next 6 months. He lost a lot of money on this one. He is happy to still own it although they could go bankrupt. They paired own the debt by selling off assets. They have to watch what is going on in the oil price. They have done quite a bit of hedging but will be free of it during next year and the stock will depend more on resource prices. It is a huge risk to own it.
oil/gas
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$0.475
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

December 24, 2018

To stay ahead as a technology company is difficult. It looks like iPhone sales will come down now. It should be a debt free company but they have a huge debt load. Most other tech companies have lost their luster at some point. The question is when it will happen to this one. He would rather they pay a dividend to shareholders than to have their debt. He questions their huge share buy-backs as well because they are doing it so far above book value.
electrical/electronic
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To stay ahead as a technology company is difficult. It looks like iPhone sales will come down now. It should be a debt free company but they have a huge debt load. Most other tech companies have lost their luster at some point. The question is when it will happen to this one. He would rather they pay a dividend to shareholders than to have their debt. He questions their huge share buy-backs as well because they are doing it so far above book value.
electrical/electronic
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$146.830
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Aegon N.V.(AEG-N) 

December 24, 2018

(A Top Pick Dec 08/17, Down 24%) All his picks from a year ago have done badly. This is a huge insurance company out of Holland. It is a very big company. They pay a very nice dividend that just went up 14%. The cap ratios are better. They are selling off some things that will reduce revenues but they expect to growth them back. Dividends allow him to be stupid longer and he is happy to sit with this one. (Guest's target: $20).
Financial Services
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(A Top Pick Dec 08/17, Down 24%) All his picks from a year ago have done badly. This is a huge insurance company out of Holland. It is a very big company. They pay a very nice dividend that just went up 14%. The cap ratios are better. They are selling off some things that will reduce revenues but they expect to growth them back. Dividends allow him to be stupid longer and he is happy to sit with this one. (Guest's target: $20).
Financial Services
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$4.480
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 08/17, Down 61%) He just doubled down on it. They got hit in oil and gas but they did a lot of smart things. They took care of expenses and changed some equipment. They moved a lot of operations from Canada to the US, where they are doing better. They have nominal debt after having taken care of it.
oil/gas field services
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(A Top Pick Dec 08/17, Down 61%) He just doubled down on it. They got hit in oil and gas but they did a lot of smart things. They took care of expenses and changed some equipment. They moved a lot of operations from Canada to the US, where they are doing better. They have nominal debt after having taken care of it.
oil/gas field services
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$0.720
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Quarterhill Inc(QTRH-T) 

December 24, 2018

(A Top Pick Dec 08/17, Down 44%) They are patent trolls. They have lumpy earnings quarter to quarter. Recently they have been losing money. They moved partly to the Internet-Of-Things. They won a big suit against AAPL-Q but they are appealing it. Legislation has made it hard for a company to be a patent troll now.
electrical/electronic
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(A Top Pick Dec 08/17, Down 44%) They are patent trolls. They have lumpy earnings quarter to quarter. Recently they have been losing money. They moved partly to the Internet-Of-Things. They won a big suit against AAPL-Q but they are appealing it. Legislation has made it hard for a company to be a patent troll now.
electrical/electronic
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$1.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

December 24, 2018

Crypto currencies, AI, and marijuana. The key here is choosing the right companies. He does not have any recommendations, however. You are going to have bad actors and you have to stay away from them. AI is the big buzzword now and choosing the right companies is still the right thing to do. He only buys companies that have been around for 10 years.
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Crypto currencies, AI, and marijuana. The key here is choosing the right companies. He does not have any recommendations, however. You are going to have bad actors and you have to stay away from them. AI is the big buzzword now and choosing the right companies is still the right thing to do. He only buys companies that have been around for 10 years.
Unknown
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
No

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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 24, 2018

Tax loss selling is huge this year and has been accelerated because of what is going on. He does most of his buying this time of year. Normally there is a Santa Clause rally worth a half percent or more. He never transfers between currencies. He would prefer, if he had to, to transfer US to Canadian right now because it is so beaten up.
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Tax loss selling is huge this year and has been accelerated because of what is going on. He does most of his buying this time of year. Normally there is a Santa Clause rally worth a half percent or more. He never transfers between currencies. He would prefer, if he had to, to transfer US to Canadian right now because it is so beaten up.
Unknown
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Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
Hudson Bay Co.(HBC-T) 

December 24, 2018

He owned it years ago. It got taken over and he did really well. They had a lot of difficulties. Retail is not going to die. He never sells to take a tax loss in December but if you want to get it off the table, then match it up against winners. Ask yourself why you bought it and ask if it still makes sense. Stay disciplined but learn from your mistakes.
department stores
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He owned it years ago. It got taken over and he did really well. They had a lot of difficulties. Retail is not going to die. He never sells to take a tax loss in December but if you want to get it off the table, then match it up against winners. Ask yourself why you bought it and ask if it still makes sense. Stay disciplined but learn from your mistakes.
department stores
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0 comments
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$7.180
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
ING Groep NV(ING-N) 

December 24, 2018

He looked at it closely after 2008. It is not on his watch list now although it was for a number of years. He never pulled the trigger. He does not see this bank going under but it will go with the cycle. Things may or may not turn around any time soon. It will move up significantly at some point in time. (Analysts’ price target is $18.50)
investment companies/funds
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He looked at it closely after 2008. It is not on his watch list now although it was for a number of years. He never pulled the trigger. He does not see this bank going under but it will go with the cycle. Things may or may not turn around any time soon. It will move up significantly at some point in time. (Analysts’ price target is $18.50)
investment companies/funds
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Inv...

Price Price
$10.380
Owned Owned
No

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