BUY ON WEAKNESS

He likes this, but would like an entry point that started in the $90 area. Wait for this to drop under $100.

COMMENT

This is a group that he generally avoids. It can drop 10%-15%-20%. Too flighty for him. It is subject to news and there is possible disruption as well.

COMMENT

This is silver. Higher rates, in the US in particular, are probably a negative for silver and gold. Had owned this in the past but sold it near $20. Doesn’t like the group.

HOLD

Of Canadian tech stocks, this one would be right at the top. Not particularly cheap. He tends to get his tech exposure in the US, where there is more variation.

COMMENT

A levered way to play Canadian banks. When oil prices go down, this bank goes down more than it should. If you think oil prices are near their bottom, and he does, as they go up, this bank will catch up. This could be a really good levered play. Be careful, because if oil were to go back down to $40, this bank goes down.

COMMENT

Warren Buffett knows his name adds credibility, and this company needed credibility, so him going into this was a perfect match. BV, diluted for the 1st tranche, is about $19. It is very levered. He would rather sleep at night and own a bank than he would this.

HOLD

One of his top picks has better bottom line growth. This is not in a terrible industry and does have some growth, so he thinks it is okay to hold. There are better choices, but there are way worse choices. (See Top Picks.)

COMMENT

Has a really high yield. Payout ratio is well over 100%. They either have to raise equity, which they can’t do, sell assets, or cut the dividend which they might as well do as the market is assuming they are going to.

COMMENT

Sell because of the Amazon-Whole Foods deal? There are only 11 or 13 Whole Foods stores in Canada. Empire has its own problems in fixing Safeway in Western Canada. When Amazon announced the deal, Canadian stocks dropped 3%-5%. It will take a few years for Amazon to roll out their US stores. If he were forced to own one food store in Canada, it would be Loblaw’s (L-T).

COMMENT

He loves this rail, just because it has done so well this year. “Operating ratios” is the buzzword in railways and this one had the most room to move to the average. Just in one quarter, Hunter Harrison has moved it more than they have been moved for a while. Expects the stock is going to go a bit higher.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

This goes up and down with the daily thought about rates. The company is doing a good job and has lots of growth in Asia. Expects there is 10%-12% in earnings growth, and the chance of a dividend increase in early 2018.

TOP PICK

Because it has been hit with ESPN concerns, the stock is kind of bottoming. They’ve already lost something like 10 million subscribers on ESPN. All the rest of the businesses are doing great. Trading down to about 15X next year’s earnings, and 10X EV to EBITDA, which is as cheap as it has been for a few years. Dividend yield of 1.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $124.)

TOP PICK

A growth dividend payer. For pipelines, there is such a lead time in construction, contracts, etc. This has basically laid out 8%-10% earnings growth over each of the next 5 years with commensurate dividend growth. If you get that and you keep the current valuation, you are going to get 5 years of compound 12% a year or something. It’ll probably end up less, because rates are going to go up. A relatively safe way to park some money. Dividend yield of 4%. (Analysts’ price target is $72.)

TOP PICK

The Canadian bank that is exposed by about 50% to the US, so you get good diversity. It has lagged a little. Canadian banks are marginally down for the year, and this one is well off its peak. He thinks it goes back to its peak as we calm down about Home Capital. He is looking at a total return of about 14% for the year. Dividend yield of 3.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $71.)

HOLD

This is a Canadian company, but owns US real estate, gated communities mostly in the Southeast and Southwest US. Good operators. Stock is done relatively well lately. He owns their convertible debentures. This is now moved up to a point where it is probably a Hold.