Today, Bruce Campbell (1) commented about whether TCN.TO, TD.TO, TRP.TO, DIS, MFC.TO, CSX, EMP.A.TO, CUF.UN.TO, KEY.TO, HCG.TO, CWB.TO, GIB.A.TO, THO.TO, TSGI.TO, CNR.TO, EFN.TO, ATD.B.TO, AQN.TO, DHX.B.TO, GOOS.TO, ALA.TO, SHOP.TO, BCE.TO are stocks to buy or sell.
A levered way to play Canadian banks. When oil prices go down, this bank goes down more than it should. If you think oil prices are near their bottom, and he does, as they go up, this bank will catch up. This could be a really good levered play. Be careful, because if oil were to go back down to $40, this bank goes down.
Sell because of the Amazon-Whole Foods deal? There are only 11 or 13 Whole Foods stores in Canada. Empire has its own problems in fixing Safeway in Western Canada. When Amazon announced the deal, Canadian stocks dropped 3%-5%. It will take a few years for Amazon to roll out their US stores. If he were forced to own one food store in Canada, it would be Loblaw’s (L-T).
He loves this rail, just because it has done so well this year. “Operating ratios” is the buzzword in railways and this one had the most room to move to the average. Just in one quarter, Hunter Harrison has moved it more than they have been moved for a while. Expects the stock is going to go a bit higher.
Because it has been hit with ESPN concerns, the stock is kind of bottoming. They’ve already lost something like 10 million subscribers on ESPN. All the rest of the businesses are doing great. Trading down to about 15X next year’s earnings, and 10X EV to EBITDA, which is as cheap as it has been for a few years. Dividend yield of 1.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $124.)
A growth dividend payer. For pipelines, there is such a lead time in construction, contracts, etc. This has basically laid out 8%-10% earnings growth over each of the next 5 years with commensurate dividend growth. If you get that and you keep the current valuation, you are going to get 5 years of compound 12% a year or something. It’ll probably end up less, because rates are going to go up. A relatively safe way to park some money. Dividend yield of 4%. (Analysts’ price target is $72.)
The Canadian bank that is exposed by about 50% to the US, so you get good diversity. It has lagged a little. Canadian banks are marginally down for the year, and this one is well off its peak. He thinks it goes back to its peak as we calm down about Home Capital. He is looking at a total return of about 14% for the year. Dividend yield of 3.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $71.)
He likes this, but would like an entry point that started in the $90 area. Wait for this to drop under $100.