TOP PICK
Profit warning for the coming quarter was essentially a warning they did so well in the consumer space on market share that margins are going to be down. Will probably be $0.02 short on an $.85 base. Now selling at a single-digit multiple and are doing quite well in the space.
TOP PICK
Financials have got hit so much that they are down at the bottom. This one has the best capital and balance sheet of all the Canadian financials and probably the least market exposed. Oversold and should have a good bounce back.
TOP PICK
Soft cyclical. Fertilizer with exposure to the retail side but also to potash, nitrogen and phosphate. It looks like the prices being negotiated are going to be quite firm. Planting was postponed in North America in the 4th quarter. Expecting higher earnings.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 28/08. Down 11.3%.) Sold in September at $32+ for a small loss because of exposure on the financial side. Likes the long-term outlook and it could come back at some time.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 28/08. Down 46.9%.) They have met all expectations and still pays a dividend. Announced they do not intend to cut the yield. Now paying a 22% yield. Online business grew 42% last quarter.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 28/08. Down 59.8%.) Long-term outlook for uranium is positive and a nice alternative to oil. He doubled up his holdings at $1.59 in November. Going to hold for the next couple of years.
COMMENT
Well managed. Has everything going for it. Higher gold production. Next growth project is in Turkey. Thinks it is running out of the relative steam and you'll now rely on whether gold continues to move up. Will act like an average gold from now on.
BUY
Pipelines are a relatively safe place to hide. Particularly likes this in the low $30’s but would Sell at $35.
BUY
(Caller has a 10 to 15 year time horizon.) With that time horizon, this is almost a no-brainer to Buy now but could go lower. Will have weak earnings through 2010 but doesn't think they will cut dividends. Expects loan losses for a few quarters.
BUY
(Caller has a 10 to 15 year time horizon.) With that time horizon, this is almost a no-brainer to Buy now but could go lower. Will have weak earnings through 2010 but doesn't think they will cut dividends. Expects loan losses for a few quarters.
COMMENT
If you are bullish on oil this is great. However, like a lot of commodities, when it turns you are often better in the companies that are more levered in a way. Not sure of the short-term outlook on oil at this time.
BUY
If you are bullish on oil this is a good entry point. At this point, the risk is almost all oil price. This is not his favourite.
DON'T BUY
Doesn't like the drillers because nobody wants to drill with the low oil price environment. There is also a surplus of natural gas.
COMMENT
Stop Losses: In this environment and given the volatility, stop losses worked like they probably never have before. Probably less effective now than they were last fall. You could lose a position that is good value but you could buy back in again.
DON'T BUY
Not his favourite. Has gotten down to about 5X EBITDA and is starting to look interesting. There was a bit of a run up on the infrastructure side presuming more trains would be needed but that could take years after any announcement. Thinks there is too much government entanglement in the way they get contracts.