(A Top Pick August 29/16. Down 7.35.) Sometimes these things take patience to pan out. They have a 20+ year record of generating value for shareholders. Reported earnings today, which were better than expected. In addition to organic growth, they have been very, very capable serial acquirers. Just closed on their largest acquisition on June 28, and another US deal yesterday. Both should be accretive. Trading at 16X earnings. This is still a Buy.
(A Top Pick August 29/16. Up 29.36%.) He continues to like this. They make packaging, containers and labels for global manufacturers, predominantly consumer packaged goods. Increasingly they are getting into more advanced applications. Did a deal in December for a British company that makes plastic polymers that are used in banknotes. There is a long runway for growth in this, because only 3% of banknotes globally are made from this high-security polymer film.
(A Top Pick August 29/16. Up 18.2%.) Auto sales numbers in North America have been cooling off, coming down from a high of about 18.2 million units last summer to about 16.6 million units. This one is a global champion and well diversified with about 40% of sales coming out of the US, a big chunk coming out of Europe and a small but increasing proportion of sales coming out of Asia and growing very, very quickly. They target 8% EBITDA margins and have been coming in above that. He continues to be a buyer.
This is among the largest producers of gold in Canada. He is cautious on gold producers, as the commodity has been in a multi-year slump. The problem with miners in general is that they seem to find myriad ways to go off the rails. He can see a place for physical gold as a strategic hedge against doomsday or general economic malaise, but thinks there are better ways to own gold than this company.
He used to own this, but sold it about a year ago. His concern was on valuation and interest rate sensitivity. This does midstream natural gas processing in Western Canada. Involved in a very large transaction to buy WGL Holdings in the US for about $6 billion. The market doesn’t like the transaction and the stock traded down quite sharply when they announced the deal. This company paid way, way more in dividends than their earnings. Also, the stock is quite expensive.
He likes this company. It has struggled in the last couple of months. The approximate cause for weakness in the stock is that they are coming up to an important decision point about significant capital expenditure that they may or may not undertake. They acquired some US assets that were in Western Canada, and there was some optionality around the assets to spend $3 billion to build a big PDH petrochemical plant. This could be a good positive catalyst going forward in a couple of years.
Base metals producer including predominantly copper and zinc assets around the world. This is really linked to industrial production and global growth. To the extent that this is picking up, it should be a tailwind for this stock. This is not going to be able to coin profits through the cycle, it is going to have boom and bust phases. The conditions seem to be aligning nicely, and the base metals complex for a tailwind to their earnings.
This should be able to continue the 20 year+ history of growing earnings. They’ve grown earnings 21% compounded over the last decade. The strategy is to price sharply on fuel. People are very sensitive on gasoline, and merchandise in stores is very attractively displayed. The in-store merchandise draws 3 to 5 times the gross margin that the fuel does. Dividend yield of 0.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $75.)
Canada’s largest pipeline company. The crown jewels would be the main line and Lakehead pipelines, a pipeline that carries about two thirds of all the oil produced in this country. They also own downstream assets that distributes natural gas. Just completed a $42 billion transformational acquisition of Spectra Energy in the US, making them the 4th largest company in Canada. It also broadens their asset base and positions them strategically in a growing production base. Dividend yield of 4.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $62.)
Canada has a banking oligopoly. This is the 2nd biggest bank in the country. Has a very strong, dominant domestic franchise and a well positioned asset management franchise. They have a large and growing presence in the US. With interest rates hikes that are occurring in the US, the likelihood of them improving their net interest margins, and ultimately their profitability, is very good. Dividend yield of 3.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $71.)