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COMMENT
5-year US dollar index. If there's one thing to look at to worry about, the US dollar is interesting. Nascent uptrend into late fall caused markets lots of problems. Started falling late November. Strong US dollar is not good for lots of reasons. Investors are anticipating good outcomes for Brexit, US-Europe, US-China trade relations. EMs benefit from weaker US dollar, as well as US global corporations. Weaker dollar is good for markets. General downward trend from 2016 should continue if we want markets to remain positive.
BUY
Just started picking it up a week ago. Looks quite good. Nice sloped base. Wants it to get through $80. Good downside protection around $76. Some indicators are starting to turn up. Risk/reward pretty good in this seasonally strong period. Would take profits around $90, so more of a trade than a long-term hold.
chemicals
BUY
Big relationship to US dollar, so dollar strength means gold weakness. Gold gets seasonally weak right now. May go sideways for a while. If it breaks the downtrend, it can accelerate pretty quickly. Second seasonality is in the summer, but could happen earlier. Timely to buy right now, and wait for the next shot up.
precious metals
SELL
If it breaks through $109.50, you'll go down to $105, and then the next spot is $98. Banks are predictable, not a big drop. Better places to deploy capital because of seasonality and rate slowdown. He'd look at it again around $100-105. Interest rates would really need to rise to see it break through.
banks
WAIT
Bank weakness more amplified in the US. Deep support around $56 range. A lot of indicators are oversold. Want to see a bit of a turn up. Down today around 5%, a big drop. Wait 2-3 days as a good rule of thumb to see if it's stabilized. Then you could put in a third, if you have a long-term commitment to it. Then another third 3 days after that.
PARTIAL BUY
Pretty positive. Wants to go higher. Battle between bulls and bears is around $18. Rising lows. Good seasonal time to look at it. He owns FNV. Good risk/reward here, and sometimes that's all you can ask for in investing. If you're a longer-term investor, you can buy this today but not the whole thing until you see it start to accelerate above $18.
precious metals
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 30/18, Down 38%) Gapped down, now a political football. Had been basing before that. Look at the long-term trend, and as long as it holds between $33-35, looks as though it would get worked out. Could be tax-loss selling down the road, but for now, he likes it and he's holding.
contractors
PAST TOP PICK
WATCH
What does the increase in volume signal? Some technicians see volume as confirmation. You need volume spike to confirm a move. On the downside, volume doesn't tell you a lot, as things can start slowly. So don't read too much into it. If this stock comes back down to north of $105, a lot of investors would probably come back in. A good name, if you didn't want to buy XLD or HHL.T.
biotechnologypharmaceutical
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