BUY ON WEAKNESS

The 10 year US bond yields hit 2.6% and went back down to about 2.15%. Lower interest rates are not good for this company and they also have some energy exposure. What is good, is that it is trading at about 5% lower than its peers. Also, has a good growth rate of about 8% and has US$ tailwinds. If you can get this at $23, you should be good.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 17/16. Up 47%.) Saw a lot of growth at the time it was not reflected in the price. It was an iconic brand with a lot of catalysts. Sees it growing at 20%, and he models 11% EPS growth. Expensive at 31X, but still cheaper than its 4-year average. Still a Buy.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 17/16. Up 8%.) He could see good growth at a reasonable price and trading at a multiple that was in line with the market, and yet at a higher growth rate. It was levered to Halifax which had turned the corner. There is probably more to go on this one. Leverage on the balance sheet is still a little high.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 17/16. Up 26%.) The catalyst on this was a big Short interest as speculators felt that Canada would really fall apart. He still sees this growing at 4.5% over the next couple of years. It is outperforming its peers on an operating leverage, even without restructuring. Had a very solid print on Q2. This is at a level where you could start adding to it now.

TOP PICK

Reduced their 2017 guidance as a result of the Spectra integration. More recently, it fell on an announcement of some line-3 delays. Doesn’t think this is going to affect 2018. Trading at a cheaper multiple than it has for a while. Has 11% EPS growth over the next couple of years. Also, when they announced the delay, the market saw that and took the stock down, but didn’t applaud the fact that they had announced $2 billion in new projects over the next couple of years. A solid dividend payer with dividend growth and a 50% payout ratio. 4.8% dividend yield.

BUY

This has Québec exposure and a little more energy exposure. Banks are a level now where he is fairly bullish on them. He would dip his toe in the water right now. Dividend yield of 4.3%.

BUY

Trading at 9.7X while its peers trade at 11.2X, because it has a little lower growth rate, and is very tied to Canada. Just bought Private Bank Corp in the US, and there is some uncertainty as to how that does. Because they are overexposed to Canadian housing, they are trading at a discount. Dividend yield of 4.77%.

BUY

Has a very strong pipeline and sees it growing at 28% over the next couple of years. Trading below its five-year average. Has a 62% PR. They tend to bump their distribution 5%-10% every year. Good balance sheet. The only thing wrong is that it is still pretty expensive. It doesn’t give too much opportunity to Buy, so trying to buy on a pullback is pretty tough. Just hold your nose and buy it.

COMMENT

71% natural gas. Obviously, there are concerns about energy. They’ve increased their asset concentration, lowered their costs. Q1 was good and their growth rate is pretty good. Very cheap relative to its peers. The only reason he wouldn’t buy this, if he were interested in an energy name, is that the balance sheet, although better than its peers, it is not ironclad or best of breed. Their 2018 production he models as still lower than that which they printed in 2014.

COMMENT

Just guided 10% EPS over the next 5 years. They claim they have a competitive advantage in technology, that will allow them to stay ahead of the competition. Great balance sheet. Very good growth. He models 12% EPS growth over the next couple of years. The only thing is, it is very expensive.

HOLD

This has done really well, but got a little bit too big over its skis. They’ve had a great growth rate, but missed in the last quarter because of higher costs. Their debt is starting to tick up. The stock is pricey relative to its peers. Not at a level where you want to be buying it.

HOLD

Missed on Q1 operational challenges in aerospace. They increased costs on a fleet overhaul, as well as having some bad weather. Even without some of these challenges, they would have missed by 5%. Management is still modelling 12% EPS. The stock is pretty illiquid. Trading below its five-year average.

COMMENT

A bit of a work in progress. They are tethered to Alberta to a large extent. Their NAV keeps falling. Thinks they are going to cut their distribution. Expects they are going to turn themselves around to a much more pristine asset. Transitioning into a higher quality, especially in the GTA. 4.75% dividend yield. Feels it is a turn around play and you get paid to wait.

COMMENT

This one really depends on how much exposure you already have to energy. If you are underweight, then you can start sniffing around. Balance sheets really matter if you have a world of $35-$40 oil for a long period of time. He doesn’t think that is going to happen. Expects oil will be for $38-$58, and if he is right, this is probably a really good name.

TOP PICK

Just acquired OneBeacon, the leading North American specialty provider, which will give them growth opportunities in the US. It is a highly fragmented space, so there are a lot of acquisitions upside. He models 18% EPS, and it is trading below its five-year average. OneBeacon is probably not accretive, but is probably neutral for 2017 earnings, and is really accretive over 24 months. Dividend yield of 2.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $103.)