Sees Nat Gas trading from Mid-$2s to mid-$4s until LNG starts exporting and we bring down the surplus in North America. Encana is the biggest player in North America. Bought recently for clients around $19. The best he will see is $22-$23. He will sell if anything bad happens above $22. FCG is an ETF in the US and is also a nice way to play Nat Gas.
Likes it and is a great way to play the large cap space if you are picking stocks. He is looking to add to his positions. Near 52 week lows. We should get a bounce soon. Problems in gold stocks are not going away any time soon (higher costs). Trading rallies are the best we can expect in the sector. Ultimately in the next 3-5 years he thinks the Euro will break up and gold will go higher.
Had a great ride and was a stand-out in the sector so it is natural to expect a correction. There is big support under $100 and if that breaks it will go back to 52 week lows. Be cautious on this one and don’t step up to the plate. He is hearing negative things on the potash side (Fundamentals and supply/demand things).
China coming in for a soft or hard landing? TCK’s biggest assets are copper and coal. Their level of inventories are high and demand is waning. China is not going to have a hard landing; they will engineer a soft landing as they have in the past. They will probably only grow at 5-6%. In terms of infrastructure build, it just has to cool. TCK will be a range trader. If it goes to 52 week lows then accumulate. You have to be a trader. KOL in the US is the whole coal sector and you want to watch it to see what the sector is doing.
Educational Segment. Behavioral Finance. People make investment decisions emotionally rather than rationally and that can be problematic. How you think about pulling the trigger on buy and sell decisions has a lot to do with your outcome. Let’s say you buy a great stock you saw talked about on TV for $53 and a couple of weeks later a scathing report comes out by a bear guy and the stock is now trading at $40. Then a guy comes out on TV and says it's going to $15 but another says it will return to the 52 week highs. Do you double up? Do you put a stop loss in? Do you wait a week and call in to this show? Only the stop loss is a rational choice. You have to have a plan.
Markets. On March 6th he talked about a head and shoulders pattern and predicted S&P would hit 1560 then last week it hit 1563. We are in an upward channel and the trend is upwardly positive, even with this Cyprus disruption. The trend finds support at 1520 and we could go there and still maintain the upward trend. He is bullish. The TSX broke out of a long term range from 11500 to 12500 and we are holding above that range. It is probably not your go-to play at this point as there are better opportunities out there. Everything cyclical is seasonal at this point – Avoid defensive. The risk on trading in the markets started last week.
We missed the secondary run last fall (Jul-Sep). Do you ever see reversals in non-seasonal times? Seasonality has fundamental reasons beneath it. Stay away from it right now. It could do something during the seasonally weak period but not something he would do. Gold is out of favour right here. We lost support at $1550. We tested it a number of times and now it looks like it will break. There is also a descending triangle right now.
Markets. The news from the EU about Cyprus made him nauseous. If you are going to tax wealth, ok, but if you go into bank accounts and just take money from people’s accounts, that is just a major failure of a government. Perhaps a lot of the money is related to the Russian Mafia. He is not worried about it being a contagion. This is a reason for the markets to pause. Be cautious over the next couple of weeks. If the S&P pulls back to 1475, that is a healthy thing. A pullback makes sense.