Jon Vialoux

A phenomenal day with the oil crash on top of the coronavirus. Everything got washed out. The TSX plunged over 10%. Phenomenal. Usually in pullbacks, the TSX outperforms Wall Street because of the yields in Canadian stocks, but not today. The consensus trade of going long oil and short treasuries got wiped out today. The unwinding of bullish bets and hedge funds can take down the wider market. When markets hit all-time highs, the technicals didn't make sense. Today we saw massive breakdowns in key levels of support, like $42 for oil. Be cautious. Industrial production is trending below average. If we don't get the push higher into spring, markets get vulnerable which we're seeing now. Seasonally, we're supposed to be positive now, which is not the case at all. The S&P is below the 200-day moving average, and you don't want aggressive exposure when this happens. 2,800 was support, but we broke below that today. Charts are looking like the Dec. 2018 lows, especially the TSX. As long as we're below the 200-day, there'll be volatility. Don't be aggressive, but nimble.

Nov-Apr is seasonality. Even before today's sell-off there was trouble brewing in this. This looks like it's heading to its Dec. 2018 chart. In each rebound up MFC will see shareholders sell into strength. That's a warning. Wait on this one.

It's impressive how far it's fallen. Seasonality is now, but the chart is moving the opposite way. Technicals were negative for a long time. It was hitting resistance so long then finally gave up. Now, the price of oil slammed today. All oil stocks will be vulnerable. But VET is now oversold with a parabolic move down. Parabolic moves are always unsustainable. Be careful if you nibble away here.

June 12-Sept. 3 is seasonality. This is holding above its 200-day moving average while so many stocks are below. Buy outperformers like this instead of bottom-fishing. Apple is holding up--there's buying demand.

Buying gold during this chaos? Yes, it has been a good buy during this volatility. Gold has risen as a classic hedge to volatility. Gold is a classic hedge in Jan-Feb when volatility rises. Seasonality ends in late-February. The trend is still higher, though gold is close to its $1,700 target, so he's not rushing to buy it. Next seasonality is late-July to late-September. Other times, gold underperforms while cyclicals do well. Cash is king. He holds 40% cash. Take your profits and hold cash.

How long will oil companies hang onto their dividends before cutting them? $40 is around the break-even for Canadian oil prices and oil is below that today. Globally, there's an oil glut. It needs a lot more demand or a supply shock, but the latter will bankrupt some companies. Cuts to dividends and production are likely. Friday's OPEC news was an alarm to get out of oil. WTI's neckline is $42 and now it's $31. We could return to 2016's $26, but he wouldn't be surprised with a snapback rally. Oil is so difficult for the average trader.

(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Down 19%) Mid-Dec to early-March is seasonality when it outperforms the market--which is something you want, not merely making market gains. However, this year, there wasn't buying demand for small caps. He sold this.

(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Up 14%) Gold hit his $1,700/ounce target today so he's no longer excited by it--unless you think the virus will get much worse. This is a bet on rising volatility, and he doesn't know if that will happen. Rather, he expects a snapback or volatility to decline. Mid-Dec though February is seasonality for gold. The trend is still positive.

(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Down 15%) Any consumer stocks are terrible now. Don't buy then. However, now is seasonality, and the high dividends are attractive during volatile times. This failed to act as his hedge during volatility which upsetted him.

Cruiselines? Now--and after--the virus you don't want to own cruiselines. Buy stocks that have held up during this pullback, instead.

Today, this crossed its 200-day moving average briefly. But long-term this still looks positive, still has a positive trend. Sept. 9- Feb. 5 and the summer are seasonality.

It's rangebound from $50-83, so buy at $50 and sell at $53. This has held up well during this pullback, which is what he is looking for. This shows buying demand.

It's resisting at the 200-day moving average which concerns him. Long-term, this could move lower, though you can play it for a bounce in a possible rebound rally if you're nimble. The lid today around $17 acts as a lid, which means investors will sell into later. It's not an investment now.

It's more defensive at this volatility time of year, but anything energy today was massacred. PPL crashed through support and its 200-day average. Today was horrible. PPL got crushed. Avoid. Oil needs to rise above $40 for oil stocks to have a chance.

He sold this by mistake on Friday. CNR broke support today, which is a big knock. It held off resistance for so long until today. He questions its growth long-term.