Jon Vialoux
Member since: Jan '13
Research Analyst at
CastleMoore Inc.
CastleMoore Inc.
626 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Up 1%) Played it for the seasonal trade. Came up to the 200-day moving average twice, and rolled over. So he got out. January - May is the optimal time to own. Might have a secondary run in July, August, September.
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Down 0.4%) Trade wars with China was a reason to pick EM, as he didn't want to bet only on China. China's been a big factor in the drawdown. December - April is the optimal time. Feels that it will move higher once there's a trade deal, but he won't participate as it's against his seasonal mandate.
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Up 0%) From end of March to end of last week, he's been 100% invested. Recently took 66% out and put it in bonds, defensive, and cash. Now looking at areas that will benefit from a volatile market. Now is looking to redeploy and letting risk/reward be more aggressive.
Will benefit from volatility. Trades in options in futures. Seasonal strength is May - October. Reverse head and shoulders, should go to about $200. Yield is 1.64%. (Analysts’ price target is $183.63)
Tends to be less volatile than higher beta areas of software. Revenues are growing. Holds Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce. Optimal is July - November. Not in it yet, but the runway is coming up. Trend is still positive.
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COMMENT
COMMENT
May 10, 2019
Uber IPO. Opened up, and then down on the day. Despite the tariffs increase overnight, shows resilience of this market, as there was a massive reversal on the day. "Sell in May, go away" may not play out after all.
Uber IPO. Opened up, and then down on the day. Despite the tariffs increase overnight, shows resilience of this market, as there was a massive reversal on the day. "Sell in May, go away" may not play out after all.
Jon Vialoux
Research Analyst, CastleMoore Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 10, 2019
"Sell in May, go away" strategy. The market actually trades higher over the summer months. Sell in May strategy gives 64% less of a return than just buy and hold. Gains tend to be larger from October to May. Lower your risk during the summer, by owning sectors such as healthcare, agriculture, staples, utilities, REITs, energy. Have to be more tactical in the off-season.
"Sell in May, go away" strategy. The market actually trades higher over the summer months. Sell in May strategy gives 64% less of a return than just buy and hold. Gains tend to be larger from October to May. Lower your risk during the summer, by owning sectors such as healthcare, agriculture, staples, utilities, REITs, energy. Have to be more tactical in the off-season.
Jon Vialoux
Research Analyst, CastleMoore Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 10, 2019
Analysis on oil. Was bullish on oil from end of January to a couple of weeks ago. Strong demand fundamentals were driving the price. Overhang is a supply glut. Expects to see price supported at $60-62 and then a move higher from there during summer driving season. Demand is there and should support it over the long term.
Analysis on oil. Was bullish on oil from end of January to a couple of weeks ago. Strong demand fundamentals were driving the price. Overhang is a supply glut. Expects to see price supported at $60-62 and then a move higher from there during summer driving season. Demand is there and should support it over the long term.
Jon Vialoux
Research Analyst, CastleMoore Inc.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 10, 2019
Optimal period is between October and February. Positive in 15 of last 20 periods. Charts show a downtrend. We have a breakout. Trading above moving averages, has momentum. New trend should carry it higher. Technicals do look supportive.
Optimal period is between October and February. Positive in 15 of last 20 periods. Charts show a downtrend. We have a breakout. Trading above moving averages, has momentum. New trend should carry it higher. Technicals do look supportive.
investment companies/funds
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 10, 2019
Outlook for the Dow? Tested upper limit 3 times. Triple top. Significant level of resistance. We have a lower low, but not a higher high. Could reignite further selling pressure. Until we break out higher or lower, we're in a consolidation phase.
Outlook for the Dow? Tested upper limit 3 times. Triple top. Significant level of resistance. We have a lower low, but not a higher high. Could reignite further selling pressure. Until we break out higher or lower, we're in a consolidation phase.
Jon Vialoux
Research Analyst, CastleMoore Inc.
BUY
BUY
May 10, 2019
Transportation is cyclical. Tends to do better October - May. Optimal time is between December - April, good rate of success. Recently, broke out of head and shoulders bottoming pattern. Went parabolic, now consolidating. Trend is still in your favour. A buy.
Transportation is cyclical. Tends to do better October - May. Optimal time is between December - April, good rate of success. Recently, broke out of head and shoulders bottoming pattern. Went parabolic, now consolidating. Trend is still in your favour. A buy.
Transportation
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
May 10, 2019
Cyclical. Want to take profits. Optimal time is November - February. Between now and November, tends to trade negatively. Recently, materials production fell off. Inventories will have to be alleviated, so demand for materials is lower. Longer term, if it trades below $24, he doesn't want to be there.
Cyclical. Want to take profits. Optimal time is November - February. Between now and November, tends to trade negatively. Recently, materials production fell off. Inventories will have to be alleviated, so demand for materials is lower. Longer term, if it trades below $24, he doesn't want to be there.
precious metals
BUY
BUY
May 10, 2019
Amazon vs. Disney. Both in streaming. Both have long-term growth potential. Revenues are growing above average. Seasonally, high-growth technical names can do well in the summer. So this tells you that, as a tie-breaker, Amazon is better for the summer.
Amazon vs. Disney. Both in streaming. Both have long-term growth potential. Revenues are growing above average. Seasonally, high-growth technical names can do well in the summer. So this tells you that, as a tie-breaker, Amazon is better for the summer.
specialty stores
HOLD
HOLD
May 10, 2019
Disney vs. Amazon. A core holding for him. Both in streaming. Both have long-term growth potential. Revenues are growing above average. Seasonally, high-growth technical names can do well in the summer. So this tells you that, as a tie-breaker, Amazon is better for the summer.
Disney vs. Amazon. A core holding for him. Both in streaming. Both have long-term growth potential. Revenues are growing above average. Seasonally, high-growth technical names can do well in the summer. So this tells you that, as a tie-breaker, Amazon is better for the summer.
entertainment services
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 10, 2019
MACD explanation. Stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. A momentum indicator. Want to see the convergence do better on different time scales. When momentum is trending higher, a crossover is a trigger to buy, a crossover below is a trigger to sell. He looks for divergences to see if there's waning buying or selling demand for a stock. Momentum negatively diverging from price is typically a precursor to a downturn.
MACD explanation. Stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. A momentum indicator. Want to see the convergence do better on different time scales. When momentum is trending higher, a crossover is a trigger to buy, a crossover below is a trigger to sell. He looks for divergences to see if there's waning buying or selling demand for a stock. Momentum negatively diverging from price is typically a precursor to a downturn.
Jon Vialoux
Research Analyst, CastleMoore Inc.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 10, 2019
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Up 1%) Played it for the seasonal trade. Came up to the 200-day moving average twice, and rolled over. So he got out. January - May is the optimal time to own. Might have a secondary run in July, August, September.
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Up 1%) Played it for the seasonal trade. Came up to the 200-day moving average twice, and rolled over. So he got out. January - May is the optimal time to own. Might have a secondary run in July, August, September.
integrated oils
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 10, 2019
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Down 0.4%) Trade wars with China was a reason to pick EM, as he didn't want to bet only on China. China's been a big factor in the drawdown. December - April is the optimal time. Feels that it will move higher once there's a trade deal, but he won't participate as it's against his seasonal mandate.
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Down 0.4%) Trade wars with China was a reason to pick EM, as he didn't want to bet only on China. China's been a big factor in the drawdown. December - April is the optimal time. Feels that it will move higher once there's a trade deal, but he won't participate as it's against his seasonal mandate.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 10, 2019
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Up 0%) From end of March to end of last week, he's been 100% invested. Recently took 66% out and put it in bonds, defensive, and cash. Now looking at areas that will benefit from a volatile market. Now is looking to redeploy and letting risk/reward be more aggressive.
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Up 0%) From end of March to end of last week, he's been 100% invested. Recently took 66% out and put it in bonds, defensive, and cash. Now looking at areas that will benefit from a volatile market. Now is looking to redeploy and letting risk/reward be more aggressive.
N/A
BUY
BUY
May 10, 2019
Seasonality differs from broader energy. Optimal time to hold is March - July. Has had stellar Y/Y revenue growth. He's bullish on oil, so expects this to do well. Has rolled over a bit, but you can pick out a momentum divergence. Looks as though we're on a trend of higher highs, higher lows. Support coming in at $62. Good time to buy.
Seasonality differs from broader energy. Optimal time to hold is March - July. Has had stellar Y/Y revenue growth. He's bullish on oil, so expects this to do well. Has rolled over a bit, but you can pick out a momentum divergence. Looks as though we're on a trend of higher highs, higher lows. Support coming in at $62. Good time to buy.
integrated oils
WATCH
WATCH
May 10, 2019
Lower lows, lower highs. Support at $22.50. What's concerning is the descending triangle pressuring the support below. Wouldn't look to play it yet. If it breaks, we'll see lower lows ahead. Just exited period of seasonal strength, and it couldn't produce gains, so that tells you something.
Lower lows, lower highs. Support at $22.50. What's concerning is the descending triangle pressuring the support below. Wouldn't look to play it yet. If it breaks, we'll see lower lows ahead. Just exited period of seasonal strength, and it couldn't produce gains, so that tells you something.
wholesale distributors
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