Summer Sale

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DON'T BUY
An excellent company. Recently sold it due to noise over Huawei. He can't predict when 5G adoption will peak given uncertainty over whether Huawei will be allowed to participate or not. KEYS is trading above its fair value. Also, this is a cyclical business--not a buy-and-hold, so you must know when you will sell it. You have to be right twice with a cyclical: when to buy and sell.
DON'T BUY

A serial dividend grower? Traditional grocery stores are threatened by Amazon and hard discounters (in the U.S.). The latter dominate Europe and are a rising threat in North America. He prefers Costco who have the lowest prices anywhere; they also have the best demographics of anyone selling groceries, the wealthy, which makes Costco very defensive/safe.

BUY
A great company, which has successful marketed products, invested in the future and keeping their costs competitive. They're run by conservative, fine managers. They don't chase food trends. They're selling their slow-growing businesses. Be patient here, since it make changes slowly.
DON'T BUY
He won't touch the car sector. The peak has passed. He exited in fall 2013 when earnings momentum peaked.
WATCH
Owned it for five years until early this year, because of the noise of "medicare for all" that won't end until a Democratic candidate is chosen. An excellent company, but not timely.
TOP PICK
The world's biggest producer of military drones, so there's a big renewal for them now. They're also a big maker of night vision systems, and bought a competitor to reduce this space to only two players. 20-30% of their sales in 2018 were in cyber warfare. (Analysts’ price target is $141.24)
TOP PICK
An internet company that happens to sell insurance, goes the joke. They have the lowest costs of execution among P&C insurers, and have a better underwriting record than its peers. They benefit from lower interest rates; competitors charge more fpr insurance to make up for this. (Analysts’ price target is $81.82)
TOP PICK
A Japanese company and one of the world's biggest producers in making eyeglass lenses. Also, are the second-largest producer of endoscopes used for minimally invasive surgery which is a trend. (Analysts’ price target is $76.45)
COMMENT
A recession is not coming ...because gas prices are down year-over-year, and there's never been a recession when that has happened. Recessions happen after gas prices double or more in the 12 months leading up to it.
DON'T BUY

ING vs. HSBC Neither. He won't touch any European bank given negative interest rates. Period. HSBC does a lot of international lending and international flows aren't well-received by regulators; and they lend to the Far East. HSBC isn't a leader in many categories. ING, at least, leads in online banking in Europe, but they have loaned heavily to energy.

COMMENT

MSFT vs. Amazon No, they don't compete with each other. Amazon is the best cloud host, but not for small/medium-sized businesses. Instead, MSFT fills this gap very well, at they collect recurring revenue doing this, like a utility. This stabilizes their margins and increases MSFT's growth.

COMMENT
Market outlook. Bullish on Europe, focusing on multi-national companies based in Europe with international revenue, more than a pure European play.
COMMENT
All global bonds have risen in response to an aggressive stance from Trump in the largest jump this year. We also still have an inverted yield curve.
COMMENT
Steepest weekly loss in NASDAQ and S&P500 since December, year to date. The FANG stocks have yet to return to where they were. The Fed rate cut is due to global slowdowns, especially in manufacturing.
DON'T BUY
Among the worst banks in Europe. Trying to cut costs since 7 years, but still losing market share. Reduced dividends again. They don't know what they're doing. Want quality companies with free cashflow.