Stock Opinions by David Fingold - Stockchase Experts
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David Fingold

On Stockchase since : Sep 2016

VP and Portfolio Manager at Dynamic Funds

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Stock Opinions by David Fingold - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

March 25, 2019

Market. The inversion of the yield curve tells you only ONE thing and that is that there WILL be a recession, but it does not tell you WHEN it will be. A recession is like death and taxes – it will happen, but when? Some of the best returns in the market are between inversion of the curve and when the economic ACTUALLY goes into recession. He will be watching carefully. He can't tell you if it is 12 or 36 months to recession. If businesses have access to credit then the economy can grow. Utilities had shrinkage of 5% in EPS last year but were one of the best performing sectors. People bought the ETFs because they thought they were defensive. Today the utilities are so expensive that it is pointless to be involved.
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Market. The inversion of the yield curve tells you only ONE thing and that is that there WILL be a recession, but it does not tell you WHEN it will be. A recession is like death and taxes – it will happen, but when? Some of the best returns in the market are between inversion of the curve and when the economic ACTUALLY goes into recession. He will be watching carefully. He can't tell you if it is 12 or 36 months to recession. If businesses have access to credit then the economy can grow. Utilities had shrinkage of 5% in EPS last year but were one of the best performing sectors. People bought the ETFs because they thought they were defensive. Today the utilities are so expensive that it is pointless to be involved.
Unknown
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
They are getting things right. It went sideways for 6-7 years while revenues were growing. Margins remained resilient except for one year. They had the wrong assortment that year. They understand what's in inventory, on order and they have a best in class on-line sales and they have a strong directly owned store network. They reached a point where same store sales started to grow and earnings started to grow. They are just executing very well right now. Competitors have had limited success.
clothing stores
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They are getting things right. It went sideways for 6-7 years while revenues were growing. Margins remained resilient except for one year. They had the wrong assortment that year. They understand what's in inventory, on order and they have a best in class on-line sales and they have a strong directly owned store network. They reached a point where same store sales started to grow and earnings started to grow. They are just executing very well right now. Competitors have had limited success.
clothing stores
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
People get confused because they control the Candu reactor technology. It is a very small part of their revenue base. They also supply nuclear reactors to the US military for subs and so on. He sold because they took an order for pressure valves and they had quality issues needing rework. It now lacks a catalyst unless sub production increases. There are better investment opportunities elsewhere.
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People get confused because they control the Candu reactor technology. It is a very small part of their revenue base. They also supply nuclear reactors to the US military for subs and so on. He sold because they took an order for pressure valves and they had quality issues needing rework. It now lacks a catalyst unless sub production increases. There are better investment opportunities elsewhere.
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$48.510
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
He likes the company. It is one of the better components of the financial industry in the US right now. Casualty insurance has been rated a market-perform recently. He thinks there is a hard pricing in personal lines. It is a conservative business. They can raise prices every 12 months. There are three big players. These guys have the lowest cost. They are well positioned.
insurance
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He likes the company. It is one of the better components of the financial industry in the US right now. Casualty insurance has been rated a market-perform recently. He thinks there is a hard pricing in personal lines. It is a conservative business. They can raise prices every 12 months. There are three big players. These guys have the lowest cost. They are well positioned.
insurance
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$72.720
Owned Owned
Unknown

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SELL
General Market Comment 

March 25, 2019

Resources: He is zero weighted right now.
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Resources: He is zero weighted right now.
Unknown
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Xilinx Inc(XLNX-Q) 

March 25, 2019

They make FPGAs. Programmable logic devices. It is a blank sleight over which you can create logic. It was originally a military technology. This is the only company left in this field. Military projects are classified. This technology will probably remain for some time. The market is rightly rewarding this company for being well positioned.
electrical/electronic
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They make FPGAs. Programmable logic devices. It is a blank sleight over which you can create logic. It was originally a military technology. This is the only company left in this field. Military projects are classified. This technology will probably remain for some time. The market is rightly rewarding this company for being well positioned.
electrical/electronic
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$124.130
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

March 25, 2019

The streaming thing is very interesting. They may or may not announce today they are getting into that business. If they follow Netflix into the space then it reduces the scarcity value. We will find out the hard way. He got out of AAPL-Q because he was worried their volumes would go negative. When this happens, others in the past have seen the beginning of the end when this happened. They have to show they can grow their revenues in other businesses. As you look out several years, there is the 5G network rollout.
electrical/electronic
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The streaming thing is very interesting. They may or may not announce today they are getting into that business. If they follow Netflix into the space then it reduces the scarcity value. We will find out the hard way. He got out of AAPL-Q because he was worried their volumes would go negative. When this happens, others in the past have seen the beginning of the end when this happened. They have to show they can grow their revenues in other businesses. As you look out several years, there is the 5G network rollout.
electrical/electronic
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$188.740
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Strauss Group(STRS-IT) 

March 25, 2019

(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Up 25%) Largest producer of hummus as well as snack foods in Israel. He is a happy shareholder. They are a top brand in eastern Europe for coffee.
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(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Up 25%) Largest producer of hummus as well as snack foods in Israel. He is a happy shareholder. They are a top brand in eastern Europe for coffee.
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Down 12%) He took a position during low interest rates. They moved up and the industry performed incredibly well and then something bad happened. Interest rates went high and money market funds became competitive with bank deposits.
Financial Services
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(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Down 12%) He took a position during low interest rates. They moved up and the industry performed incredibly well and then something bad happened. Interest rates went high and money market funds became competitive with bank deposits.
Financial Services
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$98.930
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Up 85%) They do test equipment including that for the military. They have less competition than in previous cycles. They alone have a 5G tester. This is the original HP business that started in a garage.
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(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Up 85%) They do test equipment including that for the military. They have less competition than in previous cycles. They alone have a 5G tester. This is the original HP business that started in a garage.
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$84.780
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Fair Isaac Corp.(FICO-N) 

March 25, 2019

It is attractive. It is impossible to get a US mortgage without their score. It is moving to the cloud because some companies cannot afford an installation of their software. There should be more visible and repetitive growth due to moving to a software-as-a-service model.
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It is attractive. It is impossible to get a US mortgage without their score. It is moving to the cloud because some companies cannot afford an installation of their software. There should be more visible and repetitive growth due to moving to a software-as-a-service model.
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$262.580
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Airbus(EADSY-OTC) 

March 25, 2019

He has not participated because the cycle seems very full. This will do badly in a recession. He is surprised that they went into additional innings. But think about the ending of the cycle.
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He has not participated because the cycle seems very full. This will do badly in a recession. He is surprised that they went into additional innings. But think about the ending of the cycle.
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$32.530
Owned Owned
No

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WEAK BUY
Pfizer Inc(PFE-N) 

March 25, 2019

Healthcare in general has outperformed in every bear market. A lot of it comes from large cap pharma companies. He prefers LLY-N. But there is no question that this one is interesting and has good management.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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Healthcare in general has outperformed in every bear market. A lot of it comes from large cap pharma companies. He prefers LLY-N. But there is no question that this one is interesting and has good management.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$41.890
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
CVS Health Corp(CVS-N) 

March 25, 2019

Stay away from it because he thinks these businesses are misunderstood. Drugstores are not a defensive business. People will by less makeup in a recession.
specialty stores
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Stay away from it because he thinks these businesses are misunderstood. Drugstores are not a defensive business. People will by less makeup in a recession.
specialty stores
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David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$54.950
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Deutsche Bank AG(DB-N) 

March 25, 2019

A Merger with another bank? He stayed way because he does not like their lines of business. Merging both balance sheets leaves him at a loss. He does not see how it helps them except perhaps to close branches and lay people off. Germany is a massively over-banked market.
banks
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A Merger with another bank? He stayed way because he does not like their lines of business. Merging both balance sheets leaves him at a loss. He does not see how it helps them except perhaps to close branches and lay people off. Germany is a massively over-banked market.
banks
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0 comments
David Fingold

VP and Por, Dynamic Funds...

Price Price
$8.170
Owned Owned
No

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