David Fingold
Member since: Sep '16
VP and Portfolio Manager at
Dynamic Funds
Dynamic Funds
399 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick May 27/19, Down 13%) Still likes it. A big player in cyber warfare, drones, AR and VR (defence electronics). Excellent managers. Just bought a night vision systems company. Well positioned in all part of the fastest-growing parts of the defense industry.
(A Top Pick May 27/19, Up 1%) When interest rates rose in Q4, the stock fell down. The stock moves according to rates and not the fundamentals of the insurance industry, which frustrated him. So he exited. PGR has been doing well, because rates plunge and fewer people are driving, hence getting into car accidents, which suggest a good combined ratio. PGR is best in class in insurance.
Price target: 10,237 Yen The second-biggest maker of eyeglass lenses and a low-cost producer. He expects Hoya to take market share. It's also the world's second-biggest maker of endoscopes which will be used in selective procedures return post-lockdown. Hoya has been doing well, given its monopoly in photomasks used in lithography. Also are the only producer of glass used in hard-disk platters which helps transfer more data in a hard disc, which are seeing high demand.
Price target: 11,000 ILs The world's largest producer of hummus. People are eating at home alot now given the lockdown, so they are well-positioned short term. Well-managed.
Price target: 400.94 SFr A contract producer of pharmaceuticals, the biggest maker of biotech drugs and small-molecule drugs (pills). Chinese and Indian competitors are unreliable (receiving FDA notices), so Lonza is capturing market share who are reliable.
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COMMENT
COMMENT
April 7, 2020
He doesn't think we're ahead of ourselves, but responding to improvements in credit markes of the past 7-10 days. Not unusual--stock markets follow credit markets. Central banks are doing the right things, step by step, rapidly adapting, even regulatory changes to improve the smooth functioning of markets. Some of his portfolios must be fully invested, some not. He has plenty of dry powder still. He focuses on companies with strong balance sheets that have held up better than others. It's possible we've hit the bottom of the bear market. Maybe or maybe not there will be a testing of the bottom, but he feels most of the damage has been done.
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He doesn't think we're ahead of ourselves, but responding to improvements in credit markes of the past 7-10 days. Not unusual--stock markets follow credit markets. Central banks are doing the right things, step by step, rapidly adapting, even regulatory changes to improve the smooth functioning of markets. Some of his portfolios must be fully invested, some not. He has plenty of dry powder still. He focuses on companies with strong balance sheets that have held up better than others. It's possible we've hit the bottom of the bear market. Maybe or maybe not there will be a testing of the bottom, but he feels most of the damage has been done.
BUY
BUY
April 7, 2020
Playing the Raytheon merger and aerospace sector. You need to own the new Raytheon if you want to own aerospace, because the remaining pieces of UTX won't be involved here. But you need to be positive about a recovery in commercial aircraft, which of course is challenged during this pandemic. So, it makes more sense to be in a defense stock like Northrop Grumman which does almost no business moving civillians. He doesn't see commercial air business picking up soon.
Show full opinionHide full opinionPlaying the Raytheon merger and aerospace sector. You need to own the new Raytheon if you want to own aerospace, because the remaining pieces of UTX won't be involved here. But you need to be positive about a recovery in commercial aircraft, which of course is challenged during this pandemic. So, it makes more sense to be in a defense stock like Northrop Grumman which does almost no business moving civillians. He doesn't see commercial air business picking up soon.
Defense
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 7, 2020
A fine company he has owned. He exited months ago. It's defensive, so it won't do well in an improving economy. That said, we may be a recession, but recessions always end, and market discount the end of a recession 3-6 months in advance, probably ending June 30 or Sept. 30. Therefore the market needs to bottom in coming months. To get exposure in an improving economy, it's too early to enter this. But this is worth looking at. You need to own defensives, not just tech. Costoco is more offensive, which he prefers over Nestle, among consumer staples.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA fine company he has owned. He exited months ago. It's defensive, so it won't do well in an improving economy. That said, we may be a recession, but recessions always end, and market discount the end of a recession 3-6 months in advance, probably ending June 30 or Sept. 30. Therefore the market needs to bottom in coming months. To get exposure in an improving economy, it's too early to enter this. But this is worth looking at. You need to own defensives, not just tech. Costoco is more offensive, which he prefers over Nestle, among consumer staples.
food processing
WATCH
WATCH
April 7, 2020
He's moved to the sidelines on Google, because ads are their primary revenues. In every recession, ad revenues fall hard. He owns Amazon, which already earns ad revenues. It's early to get exposure to advertising, because ad budgets may get cut in the near term. But if this is a short recession that'll end in the summer, then the market may be looking past the recession already.
He's moved to the sidelines on Google, because ads are their primary revenues. In every recession, ad revenues fall hard. He owns Amazon, which already earns ad revenues. It's early to get exposure to advertising, because ad budgets may get cut in the near term. But if this is a short recession that'll end in the summer, then the market may be looking past the recession already.
Business Services
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 7, 2020
Goldcorp vs. Pan American Silver He doesn't cover Canadian stocks. Gold bullion, he owns though. Gold bullion (not gold stocks) looks interesting. From 1970 to 2012, gold was a good hedge for an equity portfolio. A 5% gold holding in bullion was an excellent hedge. From 2012 to just recently, bullion wasn't acting normally, rising and falling in tandem with the stock market. Now, gold is behaving more normally. Gold bullion is not gold stocks and acts as portfolio insurance. When stocks perform well, then bullion is not and vice versa. It's a small part of his portfolios.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGoldcorp vs. Pan American Silver He doesn't cover Canadian stocks. Gold bullion, he owns though. Gold bullion (not gold stocks) looks interesting. From 1970 to 2012, gold was a good hedge for an equity portfolio. A 5% gold holding in bullion was an excellent hedge. From 2012 to just recently, bullion wasn't acting normally, rising and falling in tandem with the stock market. Now, gold is behaving more normally. Gold bullion is not gold stocks and acts as portfolio insurance. When stocks perform well, then bullion is not and vice versa. It's a small part of his portfolios.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 7, 2020
He exited oil and gas in 2015 after investing in it since 2004. Up cycles in energy take place 20 years apart, so we are 5-10 years into a down cycle. He needs to see production and reserve growth per share before investing in an oil stock, and no stocks are. That said, oil has been oversold and is due to bounce up, but will these stocks bounce from a lower level?
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe exited oil and gas in 2015 after investing in it since 2004. Up cycles in energy take place 20 years apart, so we are 5-10 years into a down cycle. He needs to see production and reserve growth per share before investing in an oil stock, and no stocks are. That said, oil has been oversold and is due to bounce up, but will these stocks bounce from a lower level?
integrated oils
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 7, 2020
(A Top Pick May 27/19, Down 13%) Still likes it. A big player in cyber warfare, drones, AR and VR (defence electronics). Excellent managers. Just bought a night vision systems company. Well positioned in all part of the fastest-growing parts of the defense industry.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick May 27/19, Down 13%) Still likes it. A big player in cyber warfare, drones, AR and VR (defence electronics). Excellent managers. Just bought a night vision systems company. Well positioned in all part of the fastest-growing parts of the defense industry.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 7, 2020
(A Top Pick May 27/19, Up 1%) When interest rates rose in Q4, the stock fell down. The stock moves according to rates and not the fundamentals of the insurance industry, which frustrated him. So he exited. PGR has been doing well, because rates plunge and fewer people are driving, hence getting into car accidents, which suggest a good combined ratio. PGR is best in class in insurance.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick May 27/19, Up 1%) When interest rates rose in Q4, the stock fell down. The stock moves according to rates and not the fundamentals of the insurance industry, which frustrated him. So he exited. PGR has been doing well, because rates plunge and fewer people are driving, hence getting into car accidents, which suggest a good combined ratio. PGR is best in class in insurance.
insurance
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 7, 2020
Likes it. He hasn't bought it, because he isn't sure which stock to own in this sector. Abbott and Boston Scientific are better choices, he thinks, with more upside potential given product innovation.
Likes it. He hasn't bought it, because he isn't sure which stock to own in this sector. Abbott and Boston Scientific are better choices, he thinks, with more upside potential given product innovation.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 7, 2020
He has owned it. A great investment bank, but now there are few private equity deals and no IPOs. They have a lot of overnight cash from clients, but very low interest rates will earn little here. Little money to be made here in this crisis. Wait for capital markets to return.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe has owned it. A great investment bank, but now there are few private equity deals and no IPOs. They have a lot of overnight cash from clients, but very low interest rates will earn little here. Little money to be made here in this crisis. Wait for capital markets to return.
investment companies/funds
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 7, 2020
Healthcare is one of the best three sectors over the last 50 years. Eli Lily is a better choice. He's not in drugstores, because they are cyclical, such as 2008-9 when they got hit in a slow economy. Drugstores make their money buying impulse items in addition to their drugs, and people don't buy in tough times. He suggest Costco which fulfills prescriptions, but sells groceries. And Amazon is getting into this space.
Healthcare is one of the best three sectors over the last 50 years. Eli Lily is a better choice. He's not in drugstores, because they are cyclical, such as 2008-9 when they got hit in a slow economy. Drugstores make their money buying impulse items in addition to their drugs, and people don't buy in tough times. He suggest Costco which fulfills prescriptions, but sells groceries. And Amazon is getting into this space.
specialty stores
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 7, 2020
PAYX has a solid reputation, but everyone in payroll processing faces rising jobless claims and layoffs and this hurts this sector. Payroll is driven by macro factors, not business fundamentals. Avoid this space and wait until a recession bottom and payrolls improve. Also, these companies won't earn interest on the floats they hold because rates are near zero.
Show full opinionHide full opinionPAYX has a solid reputation, but everyone in payroll processing faces rising jobless claims and layoffs and this hurts this sector. Payroll is driven by macro factors, not business fundamentals. Avoid this space and wait until a recession bottom and payrolls improve. Also, these companies won't earn interest on the floats they hold because rates are near zero.
computer software/processing
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 7, 2020
A lifeco in America that deals in seg funds. They have a stronger share in cancer insurance in Japan. With interest rates so low, the present value of the benefits they have promised to pay policyholders have risen in value. So, it makes no sense to own any insurers until long-term rates rise. PRU has a strong capital position, so it's better than its peers, but it isn't immune.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA lifeco in America that deals in seg funds. They have a stronger share in cancer insurance in Japan. With interest rates so low, the present value of the benefits they have promised to pay policyholders have risen in value. So, it makes no sense to own any insurers until long-term rates rise. PRU has a strong capital position, so it's better than its peers, but it isn't immune.
insurance
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
April 7, 2020
A fine defense electronics company exposed to cybersecurity which has enjoyed increased funding from Congress. But in America he prefers Northrop Grumman which has exposure to space and hypersonics, but no commercial exposure, though LHX has been selling down its commercial exposure. Overall, he likes LHX.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA fine defense electronics company exposed to cybersecurity which has enjoyed increased funding from Congress. But in America he prefers Northrop Grumman which has exposure to space and hypersonics, but no commercial exposure, though LHX has been selling down its commercial exposure. Overall, he likes LHX.
Technology
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
April 7, 2020
A great company, a top cloud player. But a company needs advanced IT department to use Amazon's cloud service, whereas MSFT can support small/medium-sized software developers can sell them over MSFT's cloud. MSFT has been tested through fire and have passed the test during this pandemic, proving that their cloud services continue to work during massive use as people continue to work from home. MSFT has the right stuff.
A great company, a top cloud player. But a company needs advanced IT department to use Amazon's cloud service, whereas MSFT can support small/medium-sized software developers can sell them over MSFT's cloud. MSFT has been tested through fire and have passed the test during this pandemic, proving that their cloud services continue to work during massive use as people continue to work from home. MSFT has the right stuff.
computer software/processing
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