Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)

He sold this a few months ago. Remains unsure of the outcome and impact of the Russian-Ukraine war and the movement of Ukrainian war, such as the Russia bombing of the Odessa grain port. (His family comes from Odessa.)

Peak earnings in 2022, down since then, though this may not disrupt cadence of dividend growth since it's well capitalized. Dividend may grow more modestly but with a higher payout ratio. Still more downside risk with downslope of commodity cycle. Quality company.

He has added more with the pullback. It has exposure to other fertilizers besides potash. Headwinds from the springtime are lessening and fertilizer demand is good for the long term.

Each time he has traded this, he's made money. Loves the chart now, trying to break its downtrend and trying to breakout after a period of consolidating. If it breaks out, there's so much room ahead. If it breaks down, he'll sell.

Share prices down lately.
Fertilizer prices down.
Has been buying shares.
Good long term investment.
Demand for product is strong and robust.
Well run company.

It peaked early 2022 at $140 when the Russian war started, but has fallen to $80. Earnings disappointed and guidance was lowered. We've seen the bottom in this. It's the major player in fertilizer, is vertically integrated and offers good long-term growth. The falling US dollar helps. Also, they're buying back shares and generating lots of free cash.

Owns shares in the company.
Selling shares on strength @ $130 - $110.
Will owns shares for the long term.
Cyclical business - but strong fundamentals.
"Saudi Arabia of Potash" an attractive asset.
Recently buying shares @ $70-$80. 

No for anything, but especially this one. Decisions are made a lot longer than a year ahead. Timeline for commodities needs to be greater than that. End users are shifting use of this commodity, so be cautious. Either go longer, or choose another trade.

He has traded this many times. NTR was in a downtrend, but has rallied this year and it's looking like a breakout. If it moves above its lows, he'll hold on, but if it breaks down, he will sell. He likes it short term and maybe for longer.

Quite a bit of beta. Long-term the space makes a lot of sense, but a lot depends on politics. Russian events have pushed up the price of wheat and fertilizer. 200-day MA is falling, technical picture is not appealing.

We like the NTR’s valuation, trading at 10.7x Forward P/E, which is at the lower end of historical averages (ranging from 7x to 20x). The balance sheet is also decent, with net debt/EBITDA in only at 1.3x. The company has a shareholder-friendly policy of aggressively repurchasing shares. Although the near-term outlook is not so attractive, we think investors could do quite well at this valuation three or five years from now. Overall, we would be comfortable adding here, to a position size that reflects its cyclicality.
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It rallied hard when Russia invaded Ukraine, but potash prices were 3x their historic average and demand pulled back. They missed earnings for a few quarters. That said, it's a quality company. It's much better than the days when they dealt merely potash. Their supply stores offer good returns on capital. There will be a time to get back into this. Sales were so strong last year that this year's comps will look unflattering. He will wait for this to bottom.

Really likes it here. Quant work is showing attractive value at these levels. Pulled back to some key technical levels. Chart is improving.

Recent port strike will cause higher demand for products.
Does not own shares, but is a strong business.
Expecting higher share price.
Supply of Potash very erratic. 

Volatile over the last 5 years with weak shareholder returns. Stock isn't expensive and the balance sheet is good. It's driven by the underlying commodities (fertilizer). You're better to look at AFN. NTR may not hurt you, though. If commodities rally, so will NTR.