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Stock Opinions by Zachary Curry

COMMENT
Interest rates higher for longer means portfolio adjustments?

You're starting to see commentary out of the Fed, not necessarily that they're going to hike once more, but that rates are going to stay higher for longer. The forecast is for a 1/4 rate reduction by this time next year. Adjustments will have to be made, both personally and within portfolios.

Unknown
COMMENT
Cautious of companies that need debt to expand?

That's right. Before rates started going up, they were called "zombie companies", where they were being kept alive by low interest rates. We're starting to see those companies fracture. In the Russell 3000, the top 20% of companies with high interest-coverage ratios were doing markedly better than the bottom 20%. Refinancing is coming in, and companies are getting less money with higher rates and the debt's coming back to roost.

Companies with either low debt levels and positive cash positions, or debt levels that are serviced with internally generated cash, are the ones that will do better over time. The stronger will do better, and the longer rates stay high, the more that trend will continue.

Unknown
BUY

Lots against them during Covid with no one driving, labour costs going up, and blocked supply chains. Those trends are unwinding. More driving = more accidents. With automation, repair costs are that much higher. M&A mojo should return.

other services
DON'T BUY
Aritzia Inc.

Discretionary sector is tough, with worries about economic spending and GDP growth. This sector is the first to come off. Other retailers would perform better in the coming environment of slowing growth. See his Top Picks.

specialty stores
DON'T BUY

Steer clear, despite dramatic drop. Lots of news yet to unfold. You don't know what you're getting. Panama mine represents 60% of company's value. Look for mining in a friendlier jurisdiction.

integrated mines
STRONG BUY
Microsoft Corp
MSFT vs. GOOG

Owns and likes both, but MSFT gets the nod if you forced him to choose, because of its AI potential.

A lot of the trend right now is in AI, and MSFT will be the winner. They already have the platform, just increase the price and that's good for margins. Strong user-installed base that AI can leapfrog off of.

GOOG is more of an advertising company, and ads are coming back. Net margins of 25%, good growth. GOOG will have more work to do on the AI front. Given the recent price drop, there are worse companies to buy.

computer software / processing
BUY
Alphabet Inc
GOOG vs. MSFT

Owns and likes both, but MSFT gets the nod if you forced him to choose, because of its AI potential.

A lot of the trend right now is in AI, and MSFT will be the winner. They already have the platform, just increase the price and that's good for margins. Strong user-installed base that AI can leapfrog off of.

GOOG is more of an advertising company, and ads are coming back. Net margins of 25%, good growth. GOOG will have more work to do on the AI front. Given the recent price drop, there are worse companies to buy.

Technology
WEAK BUY
Cenovus Energy

Likes the energy space. Good company, though he prefers other names. Higher oil prices will increase cashflows. Returning more money to shareholders. Oil companies will be profit and cash machines if oil stays in $80 range. 

oil / gas
HOLD
Bank of Nova Scotia

Management changes. Strategic plan will be announced in December. Selling stake in Canadian Tire Financial will help by adding to capital cushion. If you own now, hold, as you're getting paid to wait. 

It has more international exposure. Don't average down. Instead, use those funds to diversify. Try RY for wealth management, or TD for US retail banking. Those are the two banks he prefers.

banks
BUY
Royal Bank

Try RY for wealth management, or TD for US retail banking. His preferences in the space, and he owns both.

banks
BUY
Toronto Dominion

Try RY for wealth management, or TD for US retail banking. His preferences in the space, and he owns both.

banks
BUY
Toyota

Didn't rush to build EVs the way others did, and this will help in the long run. In general, EVs are not selling well, inventories are building up, and infrastructure isn't yet there. Hybrid option has the most mileage longevity, and Toyota seems to be going that route, which is the most prudent approach. Great cars, huge company. Safe for a 3-5 year hold.

Automotive
HOLD

If you've held on through this year's ups and downs, keep holding. For a new position, look elsewhere. Utility sector has been hard hit, as higher-for-longer interest rate expectations took hold. AQN went down more than most because of its specific issues. Utilities are recovering. It will find its footing. 

electrical utilities
PAST TOP PICK
Visa Inc.
(A Top Pick Jun 01/23, Up 7%)

Cross-border travel recovery since Covid is a big margin. Talk about transaction rates going down, but it seems to be able to weather those storms. Real moat around its technology. He remains positive.

other services
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 01/23, Down 2%)

Under pressure, but his view is longer term. Assets are irreplaceable. Overall, should grow with the economy and increase prices. Synergies from merger will last a long time. It will take longer, but eventually a NA powerhouse.

Transportation
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