Stock Opinions by Karen Firestone, CEO, Aureus Asset Management

BUY
Microsoft Corp
Shares jumping 8.5% after announcing earnings late yesterday.

It deserves its re-rating. The report was a relief and its numbers beat: slightly better revenue and costs, making some disciplined margin improvement, and generated a lot of free cash flow. Generative AI is important, though they didn't stress it in the call. MSFT's beat benefits the market as a whole, given its 6% weight in the S&P. MSFT is on the verge of acceleration. Bulls say it's the way to play AI safely (cushioned by its various businesses), but bears say the valuation is too high and it isn't a pure-play AI. Her answer: the chart has climbed a wall of worry and has made a beautiful move higher after bottoming at the end of 2022. Also, the UK blocks Microsoft's takeover and she's glad--videogames are cyclical and is a tough business.

computer software / processing
BUY

There's room to run. Instagram has held in. Perhaps Reels is seeing momentum and maybe digital ads are rising. If these happen, then expect some (not huge) revenue acceleration which will move shares higher.

0
BUY

The downgrade is late to the party. Shares are down 30% YTD. Schwab has seen an inflow of assets since the banking crisis in mid-March. This is a brokerage firm that does asset management; it isn't First Republic Bank. It trades at 10x earnings 2024.

investment companies / funds
BUY
Visa Inc.
They just reported

A major position for her. Unlike some AmeEx and some companies, Visa reiterated that the consumer remains strong. A different spin or customer from AmEx? Don't know.

other services
HOLD

Trades at a low 13x PE 2024, reiterated full-year guidance, and have maintained their market share. Hold but be patient.

0
BUY
CarMax

The used car market will pick up because people are buying new cars.

Automotive
COMMENT

When the year began, she noted that the positive thing about the market was how negative sentiment was. Three months later, the Nasdaq and tech is up 15-19%. Who expected that when many expected new lows first. This is the effect of all previous rate hikes, and maybe there are 25 basis points left before the Fed likely pauses. Inflation is clearly going in the right direction. Tech was smothered last year when their multiples fell lower than the market. So, their current comeback makes sense to see some reversal now in leadership. Also, the market has handled this banking crisis unexpectedly (well).

Unknown
PARTIAL SELL

She trimmed her holding recently. It's outperformed the market the past year and has had a good run. It's a discretionary and tech and about travel which is doing well, though possibly could slow. But still likes it and remains a large holding.

department stores
PARTIAL SELL

It's outperformed the market the past year and has had a good run. People were driving more, but maybe that's played out. has just trimmed it. Still likes it.

Automotive
BUY

She just added shares. It's been underperforming the market, but still has growth being #1 in health insurance in the U.S. Will enjoy earnings growth this year whatever happenings to the economy.

medical services
SELL
First Republic Bank

She bought it as it spiked 50% (good), then the next day it fell (bad). It was a very small position. She expected the bank's deposits position to be contained, but it didn't.

Financial Services
BUY
Adobe Systems

It peaked in late 2021 around $700 then fell to $275. It's $380 now. The market hated their Figma purchase but that's integrating now while Adobe is cutting costs as sales come back. Adobe software is mission-critical. Shares are attractive.

computer software / processing
SELL
First Republic Bank

Down 25% this morning and shares halted. She owns a very small position, picking up some last week, but selling this week. The fear factor is the reason.

Financial Services
COMMENT
Amazon.com, Inc.
Is cutting 9,000 more jobs

PE is over 60x this year, and 39x forward for 2024. It's going down. They'll probably cut more costs. The stock has performed badly in the last two years, so management is doing everything to become more efficient, so the layoffs are a step in the right direction.

specialty stores
BUY

Like Pepsi, it's a steady earner and trades at the same 21x PE. Lots of cash flow and higher ROE than peers. Will do well in a tough economy.

medical services
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