Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)

Technical chart shows a falling price with lower lows, lower highs. Below 200-day MA. Soft commodity prices. Volatile on demand and pricing. Avoid for now. Long-term, less land so productivity per acre will matter.

He has owned it through its rise and fall. It has very cheap access to natural gas. If you have it in your portfolio you could sell some if it gets to a 6% holding and then buy back if it gets down to the 3% level.

Stock's still not cheap despite its fall. 14.8x 2024. Modelling no growth. Whippy. Buy a bit. Writing a put is an excellent idea -- why not oblige yourself to own it at $62-64 for 3-4 months, and take in some really nice premiums.

Half of the business is in retail which accounts for the 4% dividend. The other part is a call on potash prices which are down substantially but should do better in the long term.

11x earnings, yield of 4%. Oligopoly. Russia-Ukraine war increased price of potash in 2020. It's really a commodity business, too volatile, he wouldn't own. There may be too much potash at some point.

NTR is highly cyclical, and investors are worried that China's slowdown will continue to impact contract pricing. But at 11X earnings, with a 4% dividend, we think it is attractive for investors with some patience to ride out the current downturn. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Has no idea when it's going to bottom. Whole farm sector's had a rough time. Company's not going away. There will be a turn. Wouldn't be surprised if this turned out to be one of the best TSX performers in 2024.

Owns shares in company. Recent share price weakness not a concern. Nature of business strong. Would recommend holding. 

Recent weakness in share price, not good for momentum. Seasonality a factor - would wait to buy in summer. 

Technically, good time to buy. No justice in this business, so just because it's oversold doesn't mean you're going to get rewarded. Around $60 is good risk/reward. Nice dividend. He's looking at it. 

Fundamentals will improve over time. Like putting mail bags out for the train back in the day, you didn't know when the train would come, just that at some point it would.

NTR is one of the larger Canadian stocks in Canada, at a $34B market cap. It pays a 3.1% yield, trades at a cheap valuation of 10.6X, however, its forward earnings and sales estimates are fairly muted. Fertilizer prices have been coming down, and this has put pressure on the stock. We expect potash prices to stabilize in the coming year or more, and with NTR's strong free cash flow generation and good management team and balance sheet, it can benefit from a stabilization or even potential increase in potash prices. 

Over a long period of time, we would be comfortable buying and holding NTR at these levels given its industry-leading position in the space. We believe some patience will be required, though.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Owns shares in company and likes future prospects. Good value style company wit diversified assets (Potash, retail etc.) Well rounded business with strong management. Conflict in Ukraine and Middle East creating demand for grain products. Expanding population will also increase demand. Expecting further earnings growth. Recent fall of share price presenting a good buying opportunity. Massive moat around business. 

Has come way off its high. Fertilizer prices have not risen as hoped. Remains a good agriculture company. Benefits from its retail operations. But margins are thin given input costs. If this improves, the stock will pop.

A lot of moving parts here. Headlines tend to derail the stock's progress. Steer clear of it. Analysts like it, though, but not him. 

Large markets for export of Potash and grain products. Overall, a strong business. Weakness on share price due to high growth expectations not being met after Russia/Ukraine invasion. However, good business to own for the long term.