Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)

A long-term hold for her. Long-term secular trends for fertilizer are positive. NTR has been more cyclical than she anticipated; the Russian invasion spiked the commodity price last year. However, some farmers didn't buy at those high prices and waited, which pushed prices down. NTR made a lot of money in 2022, but are guiding down this year. NTR is the lowest-cost producer of potash. Also, she likes their retail operation because it's less cyclical. Good cash flow which supports their 3.5% dividend. She took profits when shares were high.

Demand for fertilizer is strong in the long term.
Current share price still high.
Long term growth of commodities such wheat will be strong.
Strong company, but wait to buy on weakness.

It is a very volatile stock and not a long term hold. Seasonal stocks like this tend to accelerate in the fall.

Still owns it, but reduce his holding because the price was dismal. A spec buy. NTR has had a rough ride lately given weak potash prices. But Brazilian prices are stabilizing, for instance. Likes its valuation now, so you can start adding at cheaper levels.

Volatile name. He doesn't favour these commodities. Decisions are made years in advance, and supply/demand is cartel-like. Instead, he'd choose the oil and gas space now.

Doesn't know why it's down so much, 50% from its peak. Its PE has fallen so low, 7x operating cash flow and are vertically integrated. They have a retail operation. There's consolidating in this sector. They're buying back shares. Been buying it in recent days.

Apples and oranges comparison, fertilizer vs. natural gas. All NTR's commodities have rolled over, earnings disappointed, he sold. NTR is a good company, valuation not good, not the time to own.

Likes and owns TOU. Gushing cashflow. Special dividends on top of regular ones. Dividend increase. Biggest and best nat gas producer in Canada. Commodity producers are slaves to the one thing they can't control, but TOU breaks the mold based on strategic contracts. Inexpensive 9x earnings, financially very strong. He's a buyer here.

Potash prices really increased after the war in Ukraine. But now prices have come down more to reality. Hard to increase capacity effectively. Forward guidance is poor. If there's growth around the world, this will also grow.

Would not be buying at current share price.
Past year - has under performed.
Wheat prices negatively affecting business.
Upcoming earnings reports will be pivotal.
Technicals not strong on business.

Largest manufacturer in the world. Quality company. Would own at the right price. Impressive profitability, solid balance sheet, pretty good dividend yield for income. Attractive valuation at 8x earnings, but wait. He likes it below $80.

Has fallen below $100, so it's now attractive. There'll be large demand for fertilizer ahead, and it will replace what comes out of Russia.

Good long term investment.
Current share price presenting buying opportunity.
Commodity style business requires close attention on price.
Owns shares in company.

Retail provides a nice balance to direct fertilizer prices. Tough run after coming off 2022 peak. Using an 8x, mid-cycle multiple and today's prices, you could easily see the stock in the $120-125 range. Plenty of upside on a more normalized price environment. Ukraine war plus weather is playing a role in volatility. Benefits from strong farmer income.

It's been beaten down lately, which is why he likes it. A slowing economy will mean bumps for this stock, but long-term the world's population will keep growing. Emerging markets want more meat in their diet, so crop-growing needs to be more efficient. Hence, fertilizer. NTR is globally diversified and owns the whole chain--from extraction from the ground to retail. Can buy and hold this for 5-15 years.