Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)

Volatile name. He doesn't favour these commodities. Decisions are made years in advance, and supply/demand is cartel-like. Instead, he'd choose the oil and gas space now.

Doesn't know why it's down so much, 50% from its peak. Its PE has fallen so low, 7x operating cash flow and are vertically integrated. They have a retail operation. There's consolidating in this sector. They're buying back shares. Been buying it in recent days.

Apples and oranges comparison, fertilizer vs. natural gas. All NTR's commodities have rolled over, earnings disappointed, he sold. NTR is a good company, valuation not good, not the time to own.

Likes and owns TOU. Gushing cashflow. Special dividends on top of regular ones. Dividend increase. Biggest and best nat gas producer in Canada. Commodity producers are slaves to the one thing they can't control, but TOU breaks the mold based on strategic contracts. Inexpensive 9x earnings, financially very strong. He's a buyer here.

Potash prices really increased after the war in Ukraine. But now prices have come down more to reality. Hard to increase capacity effectively. Forward guidance is poor. If there's growth around the world, this will also grow.

Would not be buying at current share price.
Past year - has under performed.
Wheat prices negatively affecting business.
Upcoming earnings reports will be pivotal.
Technicals not strong on business.

Largest manufacturer in the world. Quality company. Would own at the right price. Impressive profitability, solid balance sheet, pretty good dividend yield for income. Attractive valuation at 8x earnings, but wait. He likes it below $80.

Has fallen below $100, so it's now attractive. There'll be large demand for fertilizer ahead, and it will replace what comes out of Russia.

Good long term investment.
Current share price presenting buying opportunity.
Commodity style business requires close attention on price.
Owns shares in company.

Retail provides a nice balance to direct fertilizer prices. Tough run after coming off 2022 peak. Using an 8x, mid-cycle multiple and today's prices, you could easily see the stock in the $120-125 range. Plenty of upside on a more normalized price environment. Ukraine war plus weather is playing a role in volatility. Benefits from strong farmer income.

It's been beaten down lately, which is why he likes it. A slowing economy will mean bumps for this stock, but long-term the world's population will keep growing. Emerging markets want more meat in their diet, so crop-growing needs to be more efficient. Hence, fertilizer. NTR is globally diversified and owns the whole chain--from extraction from the ground to retail. Can buy and hold this for 5-15 years.

Both are ones you could own, but which one now? BIP.UN has robust, organic growth, inflation-linked cashflows, just announced an acquisition that looks accretive. BIP.UN is one of the 10 stocks in Canada that you need to own; it's at levels that are being ignored, so you could buy right now. 

NTR doesn't have the same growth rate, it actually looks negative. NTR will be a buy at some point, but you can wait for lower levels.

Fertilizer is a cyclical business, and in the past few weeks prices have dropped dramatically, with the drop being blamed on recession fears but also on farmers' budgets, which are being squeezed on all sides. 
This has resulted in a couple of broker downgrades on the stock, and some panicked selling. 
At 7X earnings the stock reflects at least some of this concern.  
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Still likes it here. Shortage in the fertilizer market, due to war in Europe. Sold with the run up, but he's now looking at it again. Good long-term story and pricing power. Good job at vertical integration. Ag within basic materials makes sense.