Javed Mirza
Technical analyst at Canaccord Genuity
Member since: Aug '18 · 634 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
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Big Win
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Win
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Neutral
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Loss
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Big Loss
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.46 | 75 29.41% | 58 22.75% | 39 15.29% | 48 18.82% | 35 13.73% | ||
| 1 Month | 2.32 | 1 1.52% | 18 27.27% | 27 40.91% | 19 28.79% | 1 1.52% | |
| 6 Months | 3.61 | 12 20.69% | 17 29.31% | 7 12.07% | 10 17.24% | 12 20.69% | |
| 12 Months | 3.62 | 17 32.69% | 11 21.15% | 2 3.85% | 13 25.00% | 9 17.31% | |
| 2 Years | 3.94 | 25 54.35% | 8 17.39% | 3 6.52% | 3 6.52% | 7 15.22% | |
| 5 Years | 3.82 | 20 60.61% | 4 12.12% | 0 0.00% | 3 9.09% | 6 18.18% |
Stock Opinions by Javed Mirza
The way equity markets are positioned, we're seeing technically a new intermediate term, 3-6 month rally phase take hold. That should have upside into August.
His team is kind of perplexed where we are in the market cycle. At the start of the year, they warned clients that a 4-year-cycle reset was going to take hold. Typically, that's a 15-20% correction lasting around 34 weeks. He thinks that's what we saw during the tariff tantrum, but the recovery was so quick. The real risk is that we are starting a cycle reset. He needs more confirmation of which way the economy is heading.
In Canada, seeing basic resources really leading the charge. Lots of interest in gold. Industrials are beginning to pick up. In general IT has been the leader of this bull run, especially in the US. It's shown leadership in Canada as well; though has come off over the last couple of months during this corrective phase, it's trying to reassert its leadership position.
The bigger allocation is moving away from the US dollar, potentially as reserve currency status. What's happening geopolitically is going to be reflected in the financial arena as well, and we're seeing that in the dollar.
The TSX made new highs, but the S&P 500 and Dow still haven't reclaimed that level. That's really positive. We're seeing the TSX take the pole position in North America. Everything he's seeing is quite positive for the TSX in general.
Seeing a catch-up trade. Pushing toward key resistance around $36; if we can get above that, next key level will be $40. Technicals on silver definitely look strong.
Broader picture and big impetus in silver and precious metals is the USD. The DXY is trading at a key level right now and testing recent lows. If you look at a 3-year chart, you can see quite clearly how it peaked near the end of last year and has been heading lower ever since. Commodities are priced in USD, so if the dollar's heading lower, that will be a tailwind for commodity pricing. Think natural gas, copper, gold, silver.
Extended in the short term, likely to see a pullback to around $74-75. Once that's done, broader reacceleration after that. But downtrend definitely broken, and it's in a new intermediate-term uptrend.
A rising tide floats all boats, and that's where we are now in the market. But remember that August and September are typically the worst months for equities. So you can hold this name till then, but then look to manage some risk.
He was talking just this morning to the fundamental analyst on this name, who's seeing signs of improving sentiment. Technically, starting to see the downtrend firm up across the entire space by putting in lows. Starting to see higher highs and higher lows.
Look at the 1-year chart. Big pop-up on earnings a couple of days ago. Definitely expect some near-term consolidation, but after that we're in an uptrend and he'd expect that to continue.
Started to put in a bit of a bottom a couple of months ago, as did many other airlines. This name's had a big move higher. There are 2 ways to consolidate: in price (sharp pullback) or in time (move sideways). Thinks we'll see consolidation at least for a bit, perhaps with a slight downward bias. (In tech analysis it's called a "flag".) Once done, it should resume the uptrend and move higher.
Once we get into August, put on the brakes or at least assess the risk.
The best way to do it is to scale in, and that's what a lot of the top traders do. We're human, and we all have that fear of missing out. But then we wonder if we're buying at highs, and the rug's going to be pulled out from under us.
Define the trend, and you want a trend that's up. Within that trend, continue to allocate as long as that trend remains positive. Start with 10-20% of your total investment goal, and see what happens. If a week or two later you're in the green, that's telling you that the market's agreeing with what you're doing. You can then add more exposure. Best of both worlds. If it does pull back, you haven't allocated your full position; if it moves higher, you aren't panicking about rushing in, because you're already there.
Doesn't mind nibbling here around $200. Lots of moving parts, and no one knows exactly how they'll play out. It is a laggard. Support is around $190-200. If you buy here, and it goes 5-10% lower, he'd look to exit. But if it pushes higher, and you're up 10%, he doesn't mind adding more.
This name continues to work, entire space has been on fire. The kind of chart you want to see. For precious metals, we're approaching negative seasonality (July-October). Will probably see a pullback over next couple of months. If you own, set some risk-control levels. If you want to add, go ahead now but keep some powder dry for later.
