Stock Opinions by Javed Mirza - Stockchase Experts
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Javed Mirza @

On Stockchase since : Aug 2018

Technical analyst at Canaccord Genuity

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Stock Opinions by Javed Mirza - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 28, 2018

Where are the markets going from here? Major 4-year bottom cycle in 2016. In October, there was a standard pullback. At first, they called it a "holiday sale." But the technical damage was severe, a 4-year cycle reset, a business cycle contraction. So 6-9 months from now, there will be economic weakness. We're in the process of starting a new 4-year cycle. On average, the 4-year cycle pullbacks were 15%, and they lasted 34 weeks. If we hit either goalpost, he'd look to add to equities. This is not the start of a new bear market. From 2000-2010 was a secular bear market, where the price damage was around 34% and the duration was also extended. Current cycle sets us up for another 2-3 years of upside.
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Where are the markets going from here? Major 4-year bottom cycle in 2016. In October, there was a standard pullback. At first, they called it a "holiday sale." But the technical damage was severe, a 4-year cycle reset, a business cycle contraction. So 6-9 months from now, there will be economic weakness. We're in the process of starting a new 4-year cycle. On average, the 4-year cycle pullbacks were 15%, and they lasted 34 weeks. If we hit either goalpost, he'd look to add to equities. This is not the start of a new bear market. From 2000-2010 was a secular bear market, where the price damage was around 34% and the duration was also extended. Current cycle sets us up for another 2-3 years of upside.
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WATCH
Dollarama Inc.(DOL-T) 

December 28, 2018

Support range from 2016, can it hold? Starting to break through its 200-day, so he's cautious. Looking for that support level to hold and for a move higher, wait for confirmation of a break in the downtrend. It's been a growth stock and defensive, but it's moving away from growth. Watch to see if a new uptrend takes hold. If it breaks through highs of late 2015, it could go to 20.
Consumer Products
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Support range from 2016, can it hold? Starting to break through its 200-day, so he's cautious. Looking for that support level to hold and for a move higher, wait for confirmation of a break in the downtrend. It's been a growth stock and defensive, but it's moving away from growth. Watch to see if a new uptrend takes hold. If it breaks through highs of late 2015, it could go to 20.
Consumer Products
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$31.670
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Alphabet Inc. (A)(GOOGL-Q) 

December 28, 2018

Held support a couple of times last year. Wouldn't mind adding exposure here. Next support level is around $880. Longer term uptrend is intact. Longer term, info tech is an area he likes. Info tech should be one of the outperformers in the next 4-year cycle. It's been on sale the last 3 months.
Business Services
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Held support a couple of times last year. Wouldn't mind adding exposure here. Next support level is around $880. Longer term uptrend is intact. Longer term, info tech is an area he likes. Info tech should be one of the outperformers in the next 4-year cycle. It's been on sale the last 3 months.
Business Services
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$1046.680
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WATCH
Kirkland Lake Gold(KL-T) 

December 28, 2018

It's in his select equity portfolio, the only gold stock there. Major support around $30. Likes this name, but only concern is if new cycle takes hold, and there's a shift into cyclicals, then defensive areas should sell off. Pullback to $30 would be standard, and if it goes below that he'd reduce exposure.
precious metals
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It's in his select equity portfolio, the only gold stock there. Major support around $30. Likes this name, but only concern is if new cycle takes hold, and there's a shift into cyclicals, then defensive areas should sell off. Pullback to $30 would be standard, and if it goes below that he'd reduce exposure.
precious metals
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$34.450
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 28, 2018

Gold longer term. "Intermediate term" is 3-6 months. Right now, we're in a commodity bear market. Whereas between 2000-2010, we were in a commodity bull market while in a secular bear market in equities. So commodities were bid up more than stocks. The next commodity bull cycle should be around 2028-29. In the next few years, gold will underperform equities, but there will be periods when it will be great to hold. Three factors caused him to be bullish on gold in August/September: seasonality, low valuation, and commercial hedgers were long. It could get more dicey in the near term.
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Gold longer term. "Intermediate term" is 3-6 months. Right now, we're in a commodity bear market. Whereas between 2000-2010, we were in a commodity bull market while in a secular bear market in equities. So commodities were bid up more than stocks. The next commodity bull cycle should be around 2028-29. In the next few years, gold will underperform equities, but there will be periods when it will be great to hold. Three factors caused him to be bullish on gold in August/September: seasonality, low valuation, and commercial hedgers were long. It could get more dicey in the near term.
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Kinder Morgan Canada(KML-T) 

December 28, 2018

Entire energy sector has fallen off a cliff. Stay with Kinder Morgan, energy as a whole will come back. The 4-year cycle reset right around the corner should help put a floor under all these sectors that have been under pressure.
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Entire energy sector has fallen off a cliff. Stay with Kinder Morgan, energy as a whole will come back. The 4-year cycle reset right around the corner should help put a floor under all these sectors that have been under pressure.
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$15.780
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 28, 2018

Healthcare sector for the long term. Managers rotated to it as a place to hide when the market was volatile. If it's paying a strong dividend, no reason to sell. Especially with the 4-year cycle reset coming up. There will be a rotation out of defensives and back into cyclicals, so don't sell at the lows. There's more upside to come. Has a long-term, stable uptrend.
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Healthcare sector for the long term. Managers rotated to it as a place to hide when the market was volatile. If it's paying a strong dividend, no reason to sell. Especially with the 4-year cycle reset coming up. There will be a rotation out of defensives and back into cyclicals, so don't sell at the lows. There's more upside to come. Has a long-term, stable uptrend.
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

December 28, 2018

Financials have been hit hard. With a 4-year cycle reset, this area should outperform, especially in the first year of the new cycle. This is an attractive entry point, it's down 33%. If you hold it, don't sell.
banks
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Financials have been hit hard. With a 4-year cycle reset, this area should outperform, especially in the first year of the new cycle. This is an attractive entry point, it's down 33%. If you hold it, don't sell.
banks
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$24.390
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Dream Global REIT(DRG.UN-T) 

December 28, 2018

(A Top Pick Oct 31/18, Down 12%) Has underperformed. Pretty strong support where we are right now.
REAL ESTATE
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(A Top Pick Oct 31/18, Down 12%) Has underperformed. Pretty strong support where we are right now.
REAL ESTATE
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$11.820
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Cineplex Inc(CGX-T) 

December 28, 2018

(A Top Pick Oct 31/18, Down 30%) Liked the dividend. Market didn't like the earnings report. Doesn't like a chart with lower lows, so they removed it from the portfolio.
other services
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(A Top Pick Oct 31/18, Down 30%) Liked the dividend. Market didn't like the earnings report. Doesn't like a chart with lower lows, so they removed it from the portfolio.
other services
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$25.100
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 31/18, Up 8%) A defensive name that's rewarded him.
food stores
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(A Top Pick Oct 31/18, Up 8%) A defensive name that's rewarded him.
food stores
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$67.850
Owned Owned
Yes

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PARTIAL BUY
Support and resistance? He's a bit concerned about the chart. The support level will be important, if the downtrend breaks and it can close above, he'd be adding exposure. Take a bit of exposure and see what happens. If it breaks above, complete the position. And if it breaks below, reduce exposure.
food processing
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Support and resistance? He's a bit concerned about the chart. The support level will be important, if the downtrend breaks and it can close above, he'd be adding exposure. Take a bit of exposure and see what happens. If it breaks above, complete the position. And if it breaks below, reduce exposure.
food processing
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$73.630
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Whitecap Resources(WCP-T) 

December 28, 2018

All energy stocks totally bombed out. If the 4-year cycle reset takes hold, the stock has bottomed and begun to retrace. This stock is not his preference, but if you're going to buy, this is the time to buy.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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All energy stocks totally bombed out. If the 4-year cycle reset takes hold, the stock has bottomed and begun to retrace. This stock is not his preference, but if you're going to buy, this is the time to buy.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$4.190
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WAIT
Goldcorp Inc(G-T) 

December 28, 2018

Challenging to see gold move higher, when the equities don't follow. If you're going to be in gold, you want one of the leadership names in terms of relative strength like Kirkland Lake, Agnico Eagle, and Barrick. Time to be in a laggard is when you see gold bullion on a bull run.
precious metals
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Challenging to see gold move higher, when the equities don't follow. If you're going to be in gold, you want one of the leadership names in terms of relative strength like Kirkland Lake, Agnico Eagle, and Barrick. Time to be in a laggard is when you see gold bullion on a bull run.
precious metals
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$13.200
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
TransCanada Corp(TRP-T) 

December 28, 2018

TRP-T vs. KEY-T. One of the most important data points is beta. He would choose TRP, because it's less correlated to the market. Has more protection on downside risk. Plus, it has higher overall performance. A couple of weeks ago, it was bottoming and relative strength was holding in really well. (Analysts’ price target is $63.55)
oil/gas pipelines
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TRP-T vs. KEY-T. One of the most important data points is beta. He would choose TRP, because it's less correlated to the market. Has more protection on downside risk. Plus, it has higher overall performance. A couple of weeks ago, it was bottoming and relative strength was holding in really well. (Analysts’ price target is $63.55)
oil/gas pipelines
0 0 0 0 0
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Javed Mirza

Technical , Canaccord Genuity ...

Price Price
$48.890
Owned Owned
Unknown

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