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Quantitative/Technical Strategist at Raymond James
Member since: Aug '18 · 755 Opinions
Yes -- things like discretionary, industrials, and more risk-on parts of the market. In his view, we're in a new 4-year cycle (essentially, a 3-5 year cyclical bull market).
We're in the expansion phase of the business cycle. This phase should take us sometime into the middle of 2027, and that's despite geopolitical risks.
If you go back all the way to WW2, these 4-year cycles operated almost like clockwork. Every 4 years you'd get this major low.
Now, because information is flowing faster, these cycles are truncating. Any kind of really large geopolitical event (such as the conflict in Iran) will raise energy prices, and we'll see knock-on effects later this summer. His team will react accordingly.
They were very concerned as we moved through the conflict to the end of March. But markets have repaired themselves. From his long-term cycle work, it looks as though markets are back on track.
What they saw was that 3 of the top 4 strongest sectors were energy, materials, and staples. Those are typically the phase 3 plays that he calls the "exciting end" -- typically when the market starts to peak out.
Luckily, markets have regained their more cyclical, bullish footing. Industrials and info tech have regained their pole positions. Right now, things look positive. But one tweet or one event can put us back in the soup.
With his firm's proprietary models, every stock gets put into 1 of 4 different quadrants. Right now, all US and Canadian software stocks are in quadrant 4 (the penalty box). In a downtrend and heading lower.
On the weekly charts, these stocks are showing early signs of bottoming. His team would rather be a bit late to get in until they see signs of a bigger bottom and a turn up. At the moment it's like catching a falling knife.
All the software names are in this spot. Ultimately, some names will emerge as winners. But for the moment, the profiles all look the same. You have to tread carefully.
Chart shows staircase consolidations and rallies. Earnings days are a total black box for him, no idea what's going to happen today (coin toss). We'll either see a corrective phase back to support, or see another push higher.
Longer-term chart continues to work. He'd look to add on weakness -- either right away if there's a drop, or later in July/August if the stock moves higher in the short term.