
Quantitative/Technical Strategist at Raymond James
Member since: Aug '18 · 779 Opinions
More broadly the S&P 500, the TSX Composite, and the Russell 2000 remain quite constructive. All are trading above 50- and 200-day MAs. Starting to see early signs of some fraying, so market internals are coming off a bit. Market breadth is weakening a bit.
One of the most interesting things over the past couple of weeks is that the S&P and the TSX are making new highs, while the SOXX (Semiconductor) ETF is heading in the opposite direction.
Likes that the chart is showing higher highs and higher lows, which is constructive. Improving. His bigger concern is where we are in the market cycle model, transitioning to the "peaking" phase. If we were starting a new cycle, he'd be very bullish here. But markets are up and rounding over, and he's worried about a broader pullback in the next 6-9 months or so.
You could add here, but definitely limit your risk if it gets back to recent lows. $2300 might be the line in the sand.
Continues to improve, seeing higher highs and higher lows. Earnings will be a really good tell for the market. Semis have really come under pressure. Whatever NVDA does after tonight, the broader semis will follow suit. We know that it'll print great numbers, but where will the guidance fit in with expectations and is that already priced in?
Seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows. Starting to trend lower. One of those have it both ways stocks -- participates when markets are up, a place to hide when markets are down. Story's very positive.
Doesn't mind nibbling here. Pocket of support around $170. If it breaks that, time to reduce exposure. Look for the turnaround before you step back in.
Had a really big move higher. Then over the course of June-July and the last couple of weeks, momentum areas of the market have really come under pressure. So it's broader momentum selling. Oversold, so he doesn't mind nibbling here.
Overall, concerned about the lower highs and lower lows. If it can clear ~$860-875, he'd add then.
Energy names have had a big pullback. Energy stocks are poised to push higher, and that rising tide should lift all boats. Better to buy the worst stock in the best-performing sector, than the best stock in the worst-performing sector. Energy will continue to see tailwinds over next 6-9 months. He'd buy right here, right now.