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Javed Mirza
Technical analyst at Canaccord Genuity
Member since: Aug '18 · 544 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
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Win
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Neutral
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Big Loss
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.41 | 64 28.96% | 50 22.62% | 33 14.93% | 42 19.00% | 32 14.48% | ||
| 1 Month | 2.28 | 1 1.69% | 17 28.81% | 21 35.59% | 19 32.20% | 1 1.69% | |
| 6 Months | 3.59 | 12 23.08% | 15 28.85% | 7 13.46% | 7 13.46% | 11 21.15% | |
| 12 Months | 3.59 | 15 30.61% | 11 22.45% | 2 4.08% | 12 24.49% | 9 18.37% | |
| 2 Years | 3.83 | 20 58.82% | 4 11.76% | 3 8.82% | 1 2.94% | 6 17.65% | |
| 5 Years | 3.76 | 16 59.26% | 3 11.11% | 0 0.00% | 3 11.11% | 5 18.52% |
Stock Opinions by Javed Mirza
Bottom line is that back in October 2022, there was a major market low. After that, you typically see a new 4-year cycle in a 3-5 year cyclical bull market. By time, that should take us at least into the first half of next year. So the answer to the question is yes, and we can talk about some targets later. For now, the path of least resistance for equity markets remains up.
In Phase 2, the leaders typically are industrials, info tech, and basic materials. That's played out for the most part this year, especially info tech. But what we're seeing here, and on the semiconductor index, are early signs that we're failing to make new highs on the NASDAQ. The point is that we're starting to see signs of rotation away from information technology.
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At the start of the year, he was telling clients that the target was 5400, or roughly 15% upside. But it's a moving target now so 6000 is his next target, which is above the previous target of 5800 that was broken a couple of weeks ago.
On the TSX, he's looking at around 26,000. Back in the summer, his big call was that the TSX would outperform the S&P 500. The reason is that we're getting late cycle, and that should favour resources and the resource-heavy TSX. So far, that story has played out.
The MGK is a mega-cap growth ETF. Great way to look at all the big-cap tech bellwethers. We're seeing early signs that that's slowing down, which would be in line with this rotation out of some of the mega-cap leaders and into the broader market.
In his work he's seeing broadly a big rotation, which is positive. But it means we're pushing to the late cycle.
Key takeaway is that this chart continues to work. Long-term uptrend, with no signs that it's broken down. But we are seeing early signs that this big thrust upward we've seen is stalling.
Downtrend since earlier this year, along with energy stocks in general. Over the next month and a half, energy is historically weak or sideways. January-April is a time of really positive seasonality.
Price momentum started to improve. RSI started to tick up. Started to see institutional buying. Short-term price trend started to pick up. All of this tells him that the bigger downtrend is reversing, and now seeing signs of new uptrend. Next target is around $46, roughly 10% upside from here. Likes it here, attractive long-term entry point.
Seeing series of higher lows, but if ADBE takes out the lows of 3 months ago, that will indicate a new, clearly defined downtrend. In the penalty box, trading sideways. He'd be on the sidelines, waiting for confirmation on which direction it's heading next.
Last week, transportation started to tick up, and he'd include CCL in that group. This one has just broken out of a range, and he really likes the breakout above $20 from the base. If his call on the broader market is correct, should be upside into first half of next year. Could then see retest of highs of 2021, around $30.
Support around $75. He prefers to see a turn in relative strength. Relative laggard for the last year+, so not being recommended to clients. If you're in TD right now, closely watch that support level. If it moves below, suggests rotating further out of TD, as there might be more downside. So many pitches coming by, just let this one go.
A leader in the sector over the last year.
A leader in the sector over the last year.
In technical analysis, the similar theory is "Dogs of the Dow". Instead, he tries to put the best patterns and charts in front of clients. People like to vote for the underdog, but TD, for example, is not a dog he'd be voting for.
Golden crosses and death crosses sound good, but he doesn't use them; they're lagging indicators. Next target close to $100, so 20-25% upside. Has price momentum behind it. Recommending to clients.
"The longer the base, the bigger the time in space." Investors were patiently clipping coupons, and now there's been an upside breakout. Anyone who bought recently is in the green, and that's really positive.
His contrarian view is that rates are actually going higher; pause for 6-9 months, but then inflation's coming back. If not interest rate increases, it will at least mean no more cutting. Higher rates are pretty positive tailwinds for insurance companies. So even if you've got a gain, keep holding.
Fundamental things precipitated recent downdraft. Yesterday's chart showed fair bit of institutional selling. When you see that, typically more downside. Wouldn't be surprised to see $37.
Chart shows a longer-term uptrend, so he doesn't mind accumulating. However, context is 4-year cycle will peak in first half of 2025. There will be a better chance to invest once we're through that.
Sideways range for a while, but improving technically. Issue is that given we're late cycle, there will be headwinds next year. He'd stay on the sidelines. Better places to put $$ to work.
