Chief investment strategist at iCapital
Member since: Mar '22 · 16 Opinions
Chips are must-haves in a client portfolio given trends in EVs, AI and data centres which all need chips. Chip revenues are about half-trillion today, and are expected to doubole by 2030. Buy an any pullback. Also lieks chips because of the cyclical story. After de-stocking, inventories of semis rose which weighed on the semis sectors. But slowly, those inventories are declining. Also, chip demand is closely tied to performance in the manufacturing sector. Watch Wednesday's manufacturing PMI and see if it continues to increase.
The latest upgrade makese sense. There's a huge secular growth opportunity and these alternative managers expand into wealth management. Also, there's potential for cyclical growth--fundraising in private equity has beeen very slow this year, slow deal flows. But now, valuations in private equity have reset by 20%. This is attracting interest back in this space and bodes well for 2024.
Doesn't like bank stocks now. But it's positive that the outflows from the small regionals has stopped and now there are some inflows. It comes down to competition for deposits and the online savings rates are much higher than what the banks are paying. So, the banks will have to raise their rates which will reduce their margins. Bank preferred shares are interesting, though.
The housing recovery isn't a done deal. The key 10-year yield rate will likely be stuck between 4-4.3%. We have budget deficits to worry about stronger growth and fewer rate cuts. Good news is that homeowners have built up a lot of home equity, which could help HD. Also, the XLY discretionary ETF is doing great.