Chief investment strategist at iCapital
Member since: Mar '22 · 16 Opinions
Small caps have been rangebound the past three years, but she thinks they will break out, driven by interest rate relief and financials.
M&A activity was turning around even before the election with $2 trillion of deals this year that exceeds that of 2021. Looking forward is the perfect environment for M&A. Upside to come.
Real-time data says that consumer spending is picking up, spending on services, commerce and e-travel, all in this ETF.
Chips are must-haves in a client portfolio given trends in EVs, AI and data centres which all need chips. Chip revenues are about half-trillion today, and are expected to doubole by 2030. Buy an any pullback. Also lieks chips because of the cyclical story. After de-stocking, inventories of semis rose which weighed on the semis sectors. But slowly, those inventories are declining. Also, chip demand is closely tied to performance in the manufacturing sector. Watch Wednesday's manufacturing PMI and see if it continues to increase.
If the Fed cuts rates, yields will decline as bond prices rise. Expect a 10% return in munies.
Homebuilders are hitting 52-weeks highs today. But IYR, which holds commercial REITs, remains down 25% from its highs. She likes IYR, if rates come down and real estates prices rebound.
Oil fundamentals are weaker than usual due to record demand as OPEC+ cut supply, but other sources are supplying too much. 2024 could see soft demand on the margins. Otherwise, collect dividends and enoy the share buybacks.
The latest upgrade makese sense. There's a huge secular growth opportunity and these alternative managers expand into wealth management. Also, there's potential for cyclical growth--fundraising in private equity has beeen very slow this year, slow deal flows. But now, valuations in private equity have reset by 20%. This is attracting interest back in this space and bodes well for 2024.
US financials have had a huge rebound in November after last spring. If interest rates decline, financials will benefit. However, she hesitates, because banks are most vulnerable to loadn defaults, bankruptcies and credit losses. She prefers tech now.
It can, but don't own gold now. You buy gold when inflation is rising (and the Fed does nothing) or there is a recession coming. She sees neither coming.
Content is king, but so many are producing content which is expensive to make. So, it's hard to compete in this sector and distributors have been struggling. Linear TV is dying.
Today's CPI report was positive. CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, which is on pace for 2% annually. Good. YOY it was 5% in March vs. 6% YOY February. A serious decline. Also, super-core inflation (services ex-shelter) declined YOU and MOM.
Doesn't like bank stocks now. But it's positive that the outflows from the small regionals has stopped and now there are some inflows. It comes down to competition for deposits and the online savings rates are much higher than what the banks are paying. So, the banks will have to raise their rates which will reduce their margins. Bank preferred shares are interesting, though.
The housing recovery isn't a done deal. The key 10-year yield rate will likely be stuck between 4-4.3%. We have budget deficits to worry about stronger growth and fewer rate cuts. Good news is that homeowners have built up a lot of home equity, which could help HD. Also, the XLY discretionary ETF is doing great.