President and CEO at Bedford Park Capital
Member since: Aug '21 · 114 Opinions
The US dramatically outperformed Canada with the S&P up 16% vs. TSX's 4%. A big spread though in both countries with large caps outperforming midcaps. Tech and energy have reversed trends this year vs. 2022. For future growth, investors should look at small/midcaps, because they are more nimble and it's lot easier for such companies to double in size and get the multiple expansion. He prefers (and specializes in) Canadian over American stocks.
IPO'd in 2021, but became profitable last year, tripling their revenue and became profitable in Q4 2022. Can they expand beyond Uber, Lyft and Doordash? That's what he's watching.
A favourite of his 3-4 years ago, but sold it after an acquisition, but paid a lot for it and that hit their profits. Also, executives sold a lot of stock. Decent company but there is better Canadian tech.
He bought it after their last deal, which doubled the size of their business. It will take six quarters before we see the company is like after that deal. meanwhile, margins will probably expand. New management team is fantastic. Long term will easily double or triple over 3-4 years.
Owns a small position, but wants to see better momentum before adding more. They did a raise of $7.85 a few months ago and shares have been weak since. Are digesting their latest acquisition and should rise higher.
The macro tailwind is there with aging demographics. But his main issue is them diluting shares. Also, their returns on capital aren't high enough. A decent, but not outstanding company.
Are positioned well. Sadly, he missed buying this much cheaper. This still has legs. Still fairly valued now.
A fine business with dominant market share. American upstart, Chewy, spooked investors by expanding to Canada, but he isn't worried. His problem is valuation vs. growth rate, so shares are fairly valued now. Long term you will do okay, but it's not exciting for him now.
One of the few large-caps he owns. Last year, they bought UPS freight, which hadn't been making money. TFI has a long track record of compounding capital at a high rate. Though trucking demand may be weak in coming quarters. But long term you will make 15-20% annually.
Has a super track record of financial returns, but there was a hiccup in the last federal budget which limited lenders to 35% maximum interest. Goeasy was charging 36%, so shares sold off hard. Investors have misunderstood the impact of this law, which he feels will be minimal. He reckons it's trading at 6x forward run rate earnings, incredibly cheap as it grows profits over 10 years 20% annually. Holds a large position.
Everything that could go wrong with this went wrong. A company was interested in buying them, but didn't, and CTS missed a couple of quarters. Then, it was removed from the TSX. Now we're at maximum pessimism and the company is not doing any buying. Margins should rise. It will take time to recover, but he would buy at current levels.
Last year, profits were way up, but suddenly Q1 was disappointing. They took a large provision for loan losses and their costs have shot up. So, they slashed profits. Pays a 7% dividend, and shares are cheap. He has trimmed his holding. Look elsewhere.
Shares recently dropped over disappointing margins and profits, but they are the best in telehealth. Also, they made puzzling acquisitions. But the CEO has a great track record and blue-chop investors are involved. The stock isn't going anywhere, but the market wants to see better profits.
He hasn't looked at this in years and it's a forgotten name. But he expects demand for oil to rise so there will be demand for energy services.
They historically grow through acquisitions, but results have been spotty. New management then focused on organic growth. He hasn't nought it yet because analyst projections are too high for his comfort. That said, the stock is cheap. It's on his radar. Are well-positioned as global food demand continues to rise.