Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Has a magnificent valuation, over 22 times book value, with a PE of 104. This is practically a dead giveaway on the street. $1500 would be a sell signal but it could have an upside of $1900. It has had some spectacular wipeouts along the way since inception. The stock comes back quite quickly and then it drives on. At some point it will wipe out but it is destroying the retail industry right now. He thinks the growth will continue right now.

This is his largest position in the portfolio. His target price is $1875 over the next 12 months. This is the poster child for consumer services. They had great Q1 earnings including cloud applications. Amazon web-services owns 70-75% of the cloud services sector he estimates, which acts as a great cash cow.

The hype around this company is disconcerting. He wonders if they will be able to execute on what they promise. At these valuations, it is not something he would recommend to clients. A company this big will have a very difficult time doubling in value. Market cap is $780 billion – bigger than the Swedish GDP.

There are many strong catalysts going forward: their Cloud, Amazon Prime and, especially now, advertising segments. A solid stock.

Continue to hold it. It has been a rocket of a stock. You could take a little profit of 5% whenever it makes you 20%. There is a moat they are creating across North America. They get products from the manufacturer to the consumer and take out several middle men who each take 20% margin, saving the consumer money. They have a vast number of prime members who get music and movies from them. The company is doing good things. They are getting into advertizing. Alexa will understand how you live and work. You would see massive earnings if they pulled out all their cap-X.

It's the ultimate disruptor. We all use Amazon a lot more. He watches this stock closely. Could this be a dip and a time to buy? Trump's anti-Amazon tweets are just noise. There's a lot going on in the tech world and Amazon will benefit.
173X forward earnings, and that's likely why he doesn't own it.

He thinks Amazon is a great company but from a value investing perspective, it is not a great stock. He would not bet against this company, but he thinks it will take a long time for the earnings to catch up.

It has a forward PE of 147 times and a price to book of 23. This company is a great disruptor. They are radically changing the whole retail scene. It recently broke out to a higher valuation level. It is a company that simply does not quit. He would be careful, however, because it is so expensive. If it breaks through $1300 then it means the growth arc is over. It has survived bear markets in the past.

He wrote a blog on FANGs. Basically he noted that a lot of these stocks moved a lot over their 200 day moving averages. He thinks they are overbought by 10% over. This one was 37% over the 200 day. He thinks it will return to its trend line. It is so overbought that it could drop more. $1100 or $1200 is a screaming buy.

(A Top Pick Jan 19/17, Up 70%) It will continue to make people money. Don't put too much stock in what Trumps says. Amazon is growing rapidly and profitably. Its assets and sales keep rising tremendously every year, but not its debt. It reinvests its money in business opportunities. Will move into healthcare, advertising and content creation (Amazon Prime Video), and even banking. Delivers value.

(A Top Pick June 20/17, Up 60%) Continues to love it. Still needs to put all its cash back to work like the Whole Foods acquisition. Will definitely hold it. A very rich valuation, so he limits his holding to 3%.

He prefers to make his call based on the 5-year chart. It has been in a healthy up channel, but he thinks it is over-bought. It will likely correctly down soon. The double-top in the Nasdaq could also signal a pause in the price strength. Be patient.

It trades at a very high multiple. Amazon is only 20% of the online business and there's lot of global growth for it. Buy the dips. They're expanding quickly into many areas. Good and bad: Jeff Bezos reinvests all the revenues in trying new areas--he's innovative. He's made strategic acquisitions like Whole Foods. Also, there's a whole generation that wants to--and will--do everything online.

Is there a chance for a stock split? He owns this and thinks the split will be coming in the next year or two. He bought it last Christmas after shopping for family on their system – purely on gut feel. They are only scratching the surface on their distribution play. This should be in your portfolio for the next 20 years. Longer term there is risk if their position becomes too dominate.

He does not own this, but wishes he held an early position in this incredibly well-run company. The multiples are just too hard to wrap his head around. If he held it, he would protect his initial investment (take money off the table) and let the rest run.