President at FSA Valuation Service
Member since: Sep '16 · 311 Opinions
They're kind of hurting themselves with these tariffs. He doesn't see the point of them. Lots of bluster and politics. Thinks there's enough pressure that tariffs won't be implemented in a meaningful way, and that's the optimistic part.
The pessimistic part is that he's concerned that maybe some of these tariffs will be worse. Some of the jobs data was pretty weak. That could be a leading indicator that the economy might be slowing down a bit.
Earnings have been coming in pretty strong, especially in tech and consumer discretionary. Some of the other areas haven't been as good. Healthcare keeps struggling.
Tariffs are still the #1 thing. He's never had to analyze so much politics in his life, and he's been doing this for quite a while. He'd like to see the rhetoric abate and actual deals get done. That would uncover the true impact. He'd also like to see the jobs data get a bit stronger.
There is an opening to lower interest rates now, as the latest jobs data gave the Fed a bit of a green light. Lower interest rates would mitigate tariffs somewhat.
In oncology, but he isn't deeply familiar with its product pipeline. He can say, with quite a bit of confidence, that they've been improving on fundamentals since around 2017-18. ROC marched up from 6% to 13%, very consistent. Pretty good valuation at 13x EV/EBITDA. Well run.
He doesn't get too hung up on a weak couple of years. If the fundamentals are there, you just have to wait it out.
A tough one. Lots of speculation in the name. If you look at it with a purely quantitative view, you'd be a bit nervous. Still in the high growth, ramping up operations, risky "startup" phase. Improving ROC. Valuation makes him pause.
Doesn't have a problem owning it, but should not be core. If your portfolio has 20 stocks, 5% each, then this one should only be ~2%. With today's earnings pop, good to trim.
Recent struggles are probably due to stablecoin, which is tied to the US dollar. If it can manifest into an efficient system (very low, or zero, transaction fees), could be a threat to V's business. Visa also has the ability to change its fees or to set up its own stablecoin. He's not too concerned, it's really just noise. This is his favourite.
Down 8% off 52-week high, which is normal trading that can happen to any stock at any time. Down 3% this week. As good a time as any to buy.
No red flags here. Always screens #1 or #2 in his work on NA banks. So consistent and efficient. Keeps doing the right things over and over. Cashflow to support semi-annual dividend increases has actually been declining the last 4 quarters. Payout ratio (his firm calculates it a bit differently) is 41%, very reasonable.
Long-term buy and hold. Get it in your portfolio and forget about it.
One of the top beneficiaries of the LNG market. Just started shipping overseas, and this will grow over time. Improving ROC last couple of quarters. Valuation is 6.4x EV/EBITDA, not worrisome. If you believe in LNG, this is your go-to name.
3-year CAGR is 17%, 1-year is 21% including dividends. Yield is 2.7%, low payout ratio, dividend is growing.
The grid itself isn't built up enough regardless. Buildout of data centres is huge, representing a whole other layer of energy that we're going to need.
There are a number of attractive companies that are involved in electrification, building the data centres, etc. ETN is one example, as is VRT. HVAC is integral, as these centres need to be kept cool. We saw META do a huge deal with CEG, which is unusual but shows how big the area is going to be. Stay away from the speculative companies.
Nuclear is also bubbling up. We're behind on supplying energy needs for this area, and that's why uranium stocks have been doing really well. He hasn't been able to find just the right opportunity to put money to work in the segment, but there are opportunities. CCO is a nice company, but doesn't screen particularly well. Investors have bid up the stock, as that's where the future looks to be heading. Engineering firms also play into the theme. EME is an example.
Another beneficiary is AVGO. They don't make the chips that do the calculations, but the chips that move the data. Its stock's been doing phenomenally well, and that's all about the data centre buildout. MRVL also makes chips that move data.
Look at the numbers first, story second. Numbers explain why stock's down. Revenue growth over the last 4 quarters hasn't been inspirational; very little growth, averages out to about zero. Margins are OK, but ROC is slipping a bit. For the long term, buy it and forget it, you'll be fine.
He wouldn't enter now. Wants to see the ROC move back up, which would need 5-8% revenue growth. He's had more success investing after results for the quarter are in; you might miss the first day where it gets a little pop, but the stock could also go down for the next 3 months.