Stock Opinions by Michael Sprung - Stockchase Experts
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Michael Sprung @

On Stockchase since : Oct 2000

President at Sprung Investment Management

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Stock Opinions by Michael Sprung - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 20, 2019

The market has bounced back quickly. He's surprised. It's like the last gasp; we've seen this before prior to past downturns. We had a sudden downdraft (December 2018), then a bounce (January-present), then things hit reality. Reality is tthere's a disconnect between high markets and economic realties around the world, particularly amid trade wars. Economists are lowering expectations for global growth. Be very cautious by holding more cash than usual, be careful what you invest in, and take profits. He expects no move by the U.S. Fed today, not in this market.
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The market has bounced back quickly. He's surprised. It's like the last gasp; we've seen this before prior to past downturns. We had a sudden downdraft (December 2018), then a bounce (January-present), then things hit reality. Reality is tthere's a disconnect between high markets and economic realties around the world, particularly amid trade wars. Economists are lowering expectations for global growth. Be very cautious by holding more cash than usual, be careful what you invest in, and take profits. He expects no move by the U.S. Fed today, not in this market.
Unknown
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
They sold a big part of their financial side last year, so they have a lot of cash. They increased their dividend. Otherwise, how will they deploy this capital? It can't only be share buybacks. They dominate in legal, accounting and finance, though the latter had depressed margins for a long time as they competed with Bloomberg. Maybe with their new partners, they will do better in the finance side. The stock has recovered too fast for him, so he'd wait.
publishing/printing
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They sold a big part of their financial side last year, so they have a lot of cash. They increased their dividend. Otherwise, how will they deploy this capital? It can't only be share buybacks. They dominate in legal, accounting and finance, though the latter had depressed margins for a long time as they competed with Bloomberg. Maybe with their new partners, they will do better in the finance side. The stock has recovered too fast for him, so he'd wait.
publishing/printing
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$75.350
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Royal Bank(RY-T) 

March 20, 2019

It sold at a premium to its peers for many years, but now RY is trading in line with them. The big banks are a safe, long-term investment. Based on valuation, he prefers BNS, but RY is a dominant player that pays around a 4.5% yield.
banks
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It sold at a premium to its peers for many years, but now RY is trading in line with them. The big banks are a safe, long-term investment. Based on valuation, he prefers BNS, but RY is a dominant player that pays around a 4.5% yield.
banks
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$102.910
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
They're making acquisitiongs regularly and expanding their global footprint. Doing a great job managing the company. As a value investor, he wouldn't step in because he doubts they can maintain their organic growth and always priced too high.
investment companies/funds
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They're making acquisitiongs regularly and expanding their global footprint. Doing a great job managing the company. As a value investor, he wouldn't step in because he doubts they can maintain their organic growth and always priced too high.
investment companies/funds
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$24.770
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Down 2%) All the Canadian banks have been down this period, but based on relative valuation, he'd pick BNS now. Pays a good dividend. Its relative valuation has slipped because it is exposed to Latin America. That said, this is a core holding of his and he owns a lot of it.
banks
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(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Down 2%) All the Canadian banks have been down this period, but based on relative valuation, he'd pick BNS now. Pays a good dividend. Its relative valuation has slipped because it is exposed to Latin America. That said, this is a core holding of his and he owns a lot of it.
banks
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$72.780
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

March 20, 2019

(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Up 12%) They're making fine progress in fiber to the home and capturing market share. Their wireless is also doing well. They regularly raise their dividend.
telephone utilities
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(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Up 12%) They're making fine progress in fiber to the home and capturing market share. Their wireless is also doing well. They regularly raise their dividend.
telephone utilities
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$58.710
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

March 20, 2019

(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Up 21%) At the time he picked this, there was concern about them being able to expand their pipelines, but they have maintained their core business very well. Their buyback of U.S. assets has straightened out the company's business structure. They will regularly raise their dividend in the years to come. This is a core holding.
oil/gas pipelines
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(A Top Pick Feb 21/18, Up 21%) At the time he picked this, there was concern about them being able to expand their pipelines, but they have maintained their core business very well. Their buyback of U.S. assets has straightened out the company's business structure. They will regularly raise their dividend in the years to come. This is a core holding.
oil/gas pipelines
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$49.200
Owned Owned
Yes

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SPECULATIVE BUY
Stuart Olson Inc(SOX-T) 

March 20, 2019

They've hit one obstacle after another and are in a business that should be doing much better. They do more construction and less engineering vs. its peers. This is way oversold. This is a higher-risk, higher-reward holding. This could pay off down the road.
REAL ESTATE
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They've hit one obstacle after another and are in a business that should be doing much better. They do more construction and less engineering vs. its peers. This is way oversold. This is a higher-risk, higher-reward holding. This could pay off down the road.
REAL ESTATE
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$4.560
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
BlackBerry(BB-T) 

March 20, 2019

They've evolved effectively into a security software company with good contracts with car and U.S. government clients. The stock price is reflecting this good news, but its multiple is too high for him.
electrical/electronic
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They've evolved effectively into a security software company with good contracts with car and U.S. government clients. The stock price is reflecting this good news, but its multiple is too high for him.
electrical/electronic
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$12.450
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
As a value investor, he thinks the rails are expensive, and he doesn't think the economy will grow that fast to justify a big increase in rail stocks. Rails are good, steady players, though, and are managing costs well. Now, they're too expensive. He'd step in at 10-15% below current share prices.
Transportation
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As a value investor, he thinks the rails are expensive, and he doesn't think the economy will grow that fast to justify a big increase in rail stocks. Rails are good, steady players, though, and are managing costs well. Now, they're too expensive. He'd step in at 10-15% below current share prices.
Transportation
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$115.360
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
No reason to sell this. Yield pays 4.2% and it is priced competitively vs. the big banks. The ROE has been creeping up a bit. It's a much better bank than years ago, though they do have a lot of oil exposure that they have scaled back.
banks
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No reason to sell this. Yield pays 4.2% and it is priced competitively vs. the big banks. The ROE has been creeping up a bit. It's a much better bank than years ago, though they do have a lot of oil exposure that they have scaled back.
banks
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$62.330
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL SELL
A success story, expanding their acquisition over the years. It's priced as a growth stock and beyond valuations he would consider. They've done well with convenience store with strong margins. U.S. fuel margins rose higher than the street expected, too. But if you own this, perhaps move into something more conservative--take some profits.
food stores
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A success story, expanding their acquisition over the years. It's priced as a growth stock and beyond valuations he would consider. They've done well with convenience store with strong margins. U.S. fuel margins rose higher than the street expected, too. But if you own this, perhaps move into something more conservative--take some profits.
food stores
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$72.200
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 20, 2019

Worth buying preferred shares? Be very short in the curve with preferreds. He wouldn't look at perpetual preferreds. Most preferreds are issued at a base price of $25, but they are extremely sensitive to interest rates. Look at reset-rate preferreds; they will roll their dividends up in the coming years. If they are called, they'd be called at the $25 price. Caveat: if a company runs into trouble and their dividends become questionable, yes, they may continue to be paid, but he's seen $25 prefers selling for $15--be very, very cautious. Example: Bombardier's preferreds have been all over the map.
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Worth buying preferred shares? Be very short in the curve with preferreds. He wouldn't look at perpetual preferreds. Most preferreds are issued at a base price of $25, but they are extremely sensitive to interest rates. Look at reset-rate preferreds; they will roll their dividends up in the coming years. If they are called, they'd be called at the $25 price. Caveat: if a company runs into trouble and their dividends become questionable, yes, they may continue to be paid, but he's seen $25 prefers selling for $15--be very, very cautious. Example: Bombardier's preferreds have been all over the map.
Unknown
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Aecon Group Inc(ARE-T) 

March 20, 2019

Very well-run and he likes it. Last year, a Chinese company tried to take over ARE. Since then, ARE has rebuilt. There are problems with SNC that could benefit peers like ARE. ARE's valuation is too high for him. He may step in if that valuation were 10-15% lower.
contractors
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Very well-run and he likes it. Last year, a Chinese company tried to take over ARE. Since then, ARE has rebuilt. There are problems with SNC that could benefit peers like ARE. ARE's valuation is too high for him. He may step in if that valuation were 10-15% lower.
contractors
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$17.980
Owned Owned
No

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SPECULATIVE BUY
Precision Drilling(PD-T) 

March 20, 2019

There's considerable upside, but the street is very split on this stock. It's a high-risk/reward stock. This could pay off very well at current prices. They just renewed some contracts and have paid down some debt. In a better oil market, this would be much more valuable.
oil/gas field services
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There's considerable upside, but the street is very split on this stock. It's a high-risk/reward stock. This could pay off very well at current prices. They just renewed some contracts and have paid down some debt. In a better oil market, this would be much more valuable.
oil/gas field services
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Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

Price Price
$3.300
Owned Owned
Yes

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