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Michael Sprung
President at Sprung Investment Management
Member since: Oct '00 · 4000 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.47 | 173 21.36% | 222 27.41% | 111 13.70% | 165 20.37% | 139 17.16% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.24 | 7 3.63% | 62 32.12% | 61 31.61% | 59 30.57% | 4 2.07% | |
| 6 Months | 4.55 | 23 12.30% | 66 35.29% | 23 12.30% | 43 22.99% | 32 17.11% | |
| 12 Months | 4.68 | 49 28.00% | 42 24.00% | 15 8.57% | 32 18.29% | 37 21.14% | |
| 2 Years | 4.61 | 50 31.85% | 38 24.20% | 8 5.10% | 21 13.38% | 40 25.48% | |
| 5 Years | 4.29 | 44 44.90% | 14 14.29% | 4 4.08% | 10 10.20% | 26 26.53% |
Stock Opinions by Michael Sprung
COMMENT
Market volatility. People talk about investors hating uncertainty, but he can't remember a time when it wasn't uncertain. We're just into a higher degree of uncertainty than we were used to in recent years. Everyone's waiting for the Fed, but he believes they've already priced in 75 bps. Looks like they're pricing in 50 for December, but who knows? The big thing that's hurt the markets this year is that a rising rate environment is like gravity to valuations. As rates go up, valuations come down. As long as this exists, it's going to put pressure on upward mobility of markets. You want to invest in those companies that are going to make it and are more profitable in the short run. Companies with profitability way down the road are going to get hit the hardest in this type of environment. We're probably into an uncertain period for a while due to impact of pandemic, supply chain issues, and the war in Ukraine.
Unknown
$0.000
Unknown
COMMENT
Inflation. Inflation goes up, but it doesn't tend to go down that quickly. Inflation might go down, but prices aren't likely to come down too much, unless you get a recession and demand pulls way down. We could well get a recession, but with all the shortages, he's not sure how much downward pressure that will put on pricing.
Unknown
COMMENT
Long-term shortages. Next day delivery could be a thing of the past. Talk to anyone who's tried to buy a car in the last year. There may be a wait to get the parts to finish that car. It will take years to reorganize supply chains and set up manufacturing with strategic alliances to ensure you can get commodities, products, or services.
Unknown
HOLD
Top Pick in February, and he hasn't changed his mind. Hit by rising rates, valuation down. Projects on the go, solid backlog. Bermuda project hasn't worked that well and won't until tourism resumes. Trading under book value.
contractors
HOLD
Utilities are interest sensitive, impacting operating costs and inflation. Long-term growth possibilities between 5-7%. Debt coming down. Backlog increasing to 1.3B. Solid company during uncertainty. Pretty good yield of 6.5%.
oil / gas pipelines
WAIT
Key worry about expansion they'll be able to do in China. Price has declined, but if we hit a recession, disposable income will pull back a bit. Still facing cost headwinds, margins will tighten, so you might get it for cheaper.
clothing
BUY
Recent special dividend, and he admires this conservative use of capital for cyclicals. Doesn't hedge a lot, so lots of torque with commodity pricing. If you think nat gas will be under pressure this winter, BIR is good to hold onto. PE is relatively low, because earnings are high, and that's when you have to be careful. Good balance sheet.
oil / gas
BUY
MSFT vs. AMZN vs. META vs. GOOG Only 25 PE. Real earnings, real market. AMZN is constantly investing for future growth, and this will be more sensitive with rising rates than companies that have near-term earnings. GOOG is a question mark in the middle because, while it has a good revenue base, every government in the world is after them to share. MSFT or even AAPL is a good, long-term, stable company with real earnings for the future.
computer software / processing
DON'T BUY
AMZN vs. MSFT vs. GOOG vs. META MSFT has only a 25 PE, with real earnings and a real market. AMZN is constantly investing for future growth, and this will be more sensitive with rising rates than companies that have near-term earnings. GOOG is a question mark in the middle because, while it has a good revenue base, every government in the world is after them to share. MSFT or even AAPL is a good, long-term, stable company with real earnings for the future.
specialty stores
DON'T BUY
GOOG vs. MSFT vs. AMZN vs. META MSFT has only a 25 PE, with real earnings and a real market. AMZN is constantly investing for future growth, and this will be more sensitive with rising rates than companies that have near-term earnings. GOOG is a question mark in the middle because, while it has a good revenue base, every government in the world is after them to share. MSFT or even AAPL is a good, long-term, stable company with real earnings for the future.
Business Services
DON'T BUY
META vs. MSFT vs. AMZN vs. GOOG MSFT has only a 25 PE, with real earnings and a real market. AMZN is constantly investing for future growth, and this will be more sensitive with rising rates than companies that have near-term earnings. GOOG is a question mark in the middle because, while it has a good revenue base, every government in the world is after them to share. MSFT or even AAPL is a good, long-term, stable company with real earnings for the future.
0
BUY
AAPL is a good, long-term, stable company with real earnings for the future.
electrical / electronic
BUY
Lifecos are entering reporting season. Investors will look to see how Asian sales impacted in recent environment. Extremely well-financed. Dividend certainly secure, likely to grow. He'd recommend today as a good, long-term hold.
insurance
WEAK BUY
Not entirely in renewables. See his Top Picks. Reasonably valued, 1.5x price to book. History of pretty consistent dividend increases, expects that to continue. Bit sensitive to interest rates. Wouldn't begrudge anyone buying it. Not concerned about Nova Scotia tax increase. Yield is 5.5%.
mngmnt / diversified
HOLD
Metrics to determine if dividend is safe? Telcos have high capex expenses for fibre optic cable, and those are planned for. BCE has a reasonable payout ratio in relation to earnings, so margin of safety built in. Pretty good yield. Good long-term hold.
telephone utilities
