Jennifer Radman

Market Outlook The market is trying to decide where it wants to go and the S&P500 is 30% higher than levels pre-COVID. There has been a lot of government stimulus. The new COVID variants are causing the market to pause for now. The market is "shoot first ask questions later", meaning investors are looking well past the current environment. Companies that were first hardest hit recovered well and now they have to justify the earnings outlook. You may have to pay a premium for the very best companies that will benefit most post-COVID.

Commodity prices have been very strong. She wonders if we are at a point where we see demand destruction. Farmer incomes are strong. There has been some US Administration tension over Belarus that may keep the potash market tight. They raised guidance and beat earnings, yet the stock sold off. She still owns it in their Canadian equity portfolio and continues to like it here.

A low multiple stock compared to its peers. They are going through a restructuring that is proving more challenging than expected. She thinks it will take another 4-6 quarters to really get things going. Beyond that you need a good track record on execution.

They went through a time when the multiple was downgraded until they decided to get out of set contracts. With infrastructure spending go up there are a lot of good tailwinds for them. There is a lot of stimulus going into their industry and its fragmented there now, which should create good opportunities.

Taking a hit lately? A couple of years ago it was the only energy stock that could keep up with the TSX, but then they started having operational issues. Based on recent company comments, there appears to be room to improve on this. It may take time for them to come out the penalty box, but seem to be coming out. It should go up.

Natural gas prices are being pressured due to a lack of cold weather this time of year. Rest of year forecasts, however, call for colder than normal weather. It is a very strong operator, well positioned in the natural gas space. It has shifted from mid-cap to larger investors. With years of underinvestment, they feel the sector has room for further improvement despite the recent run up in equity prices. A lot of cash flow should be coming. They like it here and own quite a lot.

A lot of good things working for them -- ecommerce and trucking demand. Management has done a great job in extracting value from their acquisitions. The UPS assets they bought are paying off quicker than expected. It has held up well as investors have been rotating into non-COVID benefactor companies -- she likes its ability to hold value. It is possible it may just go sideways. They have very little exposure after having done well over the last year and a half.

Why is it dropping? There is nothing specific to the company that may be causing it to pause. They have been adding to their holdings lately. Being an initial COVID beneficiary, it may just be pausing. She likes how they have pivoted to the cloud platform. The next move will be based on further automation investments. She continues to like it at these levels.

(A Top Pick Oct 07/20, Up 14%) They are no longer holding it as it initially benefited from the COVID environment as people took on home projects. Since then earnings are tougher going forward, so they decided to exit. A well managed company.

(A Top Pick Oct 07/20, Down 7%) Not long after making the recommendation the stock benefited from a lot of ETF buying. They exited on the strong buying on a much higher gain. Since then, the ETF buying has evaporated and the stock price has come back down.

(A Top Pick Oct 07/20, Up 86%) They continue to own a substantial position. A lot of very positive tail winds exist. They are consultants in the environmental water space and are benefiting from ESG plans of companies. Back log orders have increased for three quarters in a row. Add the infrastructure spending increases out of the US and there are good opportunities for the next couple of years.

She likes the company when thinking about all the government support of the markets in general in asset management. The company has done a great job investing capital over time. You are good to own this for a long time.

The company is doing all the right things. They have been strong operators as well. It is a tough position right now due to the sharp increase in wages. There may not be a short term solution to this and they have been slow on their investment plans. They exited on the recent earnings and don't see it improving unless a major acquisition is announced soon.

They own a lot of this. The services side of technology has done well. Digitization and cloud adoption fit well for their acquisition strategy and they just invested in Europe. A lot of opportunity going forward.

Still a tough call. Investors are concerned about the capacity that has been added. The company talks of filling that capacity as the new COVID variant adds demand to cargo only carriers. However, investors seem to be taking a wait and see approach.