Stock Opinions by Jennifer Radman - Stockchase Experts
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Jennifer Radman @

On Stockchase since : Jan 2013

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager at Caldwell Investment Management

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Stock Opinions by Jennifer Radman - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

January 24, 2018

Market. It's amazing how sentiment has really shifted for the investor. We’ve been hearing concerns everyone had about 2008-2009. There is always a bit of scepticism about this market. Markets continued to grind higher. What you look for are signs of overconfidence. With the interest in marijuana and the digital currency industry, (unproven business models), people are just lining up to toss their dough at it. At the bottom, there is a lot of fear and no one wants to talk or think about stocks.

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Market. It's amazing how sentiment has really shifted for the investor. We’ve been hearing concerns everyone had about 2008-2009. There is always a bit of scepticism about this market. Markets continued to grind higher. What you look for are signs of overconfidence. With the interest in marijuana and the digital currency industry, (unproven business models), people are just lining up to toss their dough at it. At the bottom, there is a lot of fear and no one wants to talk or think about stocks.

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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
McDonalds(MCD-N) 

January 24, 2018

In 2014 you were seeing negative same store sales. They brought in a new CEO, and have done a really good job of getting the menu shifted to consumer preferences. The company is really doing well. 6% same-store sales growth in the last quarter. The trade-off is that valuations have moved up with all the good news. Now it has gotten pricey and is too pricey for her.

food services
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In 2014 you were seeing negative same store sales. They brought in a new CEO, and have done a really good job of getting the menu shifted to consumer preferences. The company is really doing well. 6% same-store sales growth in the last quarter. The trade-off is that valuations have moved up with all the good news. Now it has gotten pricey and is too pricey for her.

food services
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$176.120
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
CVS Health Corp(CVS-N) 

January 24, 2018

The thing with this, as we have seen with a lot of stocks, is the Amazon factor. If you don't own Amazon, you are kind of behind the curve because it has done so well. However, on the flipside, if you own anything that Amazon is remotely touching, you are going to get penalized. This company falls into that category. It screens great on any kind of a value metric, but there is this huge overhang in the industry. She doesn't want to own anything that is even remotely spoken about that has an Amazon connection.

specialty stores
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The thing with this, as we have seen with a lot of stocks, is the Amazon factor. If you don't own Amazon, you are kind of behind the curve because it has done so well. However, on the flipside, if you own anything that Amazon is remotely touching, you are going to get penalized. This company falls into that category. It screens great on any kind of a value metric, but there is this huge overhang in the industry. She doesn't want to own anything that is even remotely spoken about that has an Amazon connection.

specialty stores
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$80.920
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

A great company. A leader in designing any kind of electronics in any type of product. They are part of the design and testing that goes into making sure a product really works. Has a lot of growth opportunities in autos, network communications, etc. It’s a name she continues to like. Management thinks that they can do a lot of the jobs with a growth runway and get it back to a growth profile. As that happens, she thinks the multiple moves higher and it has good earnings growth opportunities.

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A great company. A leader in designing any kind of electronics in any type of product. They are part of the design and testing that goes into making sure a product really works. Has a lot of growth opportunities in autos, network communications, etc. It’s a name she continues to like. Management thinks that they can do a lot of the jobs with a growth runway and get it back to a growth profile. As that happens, she thinks the multiple moves higher and it has good earnings growth opportunities.

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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$46.030
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Recently sold her holdings as it seemed the stock was rolling over. Also, there was more and more concern about potential new competitors coming into the space, particularly on the electric bus side. One reason the company did so well was because of a few bankruptcies and consolidations, so pricing power was really good and there were a minimal number of players. The company subsequently made an acquisition, and the stock has gone on, getting close to its old highs. It seems to still have a good runway with some good upside in the stock.

Automotive
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Recently sold her holdings as it seemed the stock was rolling over. Also, there was more and more concern about potential new competitors coming into the space, particularly on the electric bus side. One reason the company did so well was because of a few bankruptcies and consolidations, so pricing power was really good and there were a minimal number of players. The company subsequently made an acquisition, and the stock has gone on, getting close to its old highs. It seems to still have a good runway with some good upside in the stock.

Automotive
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$58.260
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Martinrea(MRE-T) 

January 24, 2018

This has done phenomenally well. In the auto parts space, there is the big story of peak auto, with North American auto production going down. In Q4 production was down 6%. In this company's case, they have a nice ability of being able to grow because of cost cutting. They’ve really been executing on their business plan, and made a number of investments that are starting to pay off. She thinks the shares will go higher.

metal fabricators
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This has done phenomenally well. In the auto parts space, there is the big story of peak auto, with North American auto production going down. In Q4 production was down 6%. In this company's case, they have a nice ability of being able to grow because of cost cutting. They’ve really been executing on their business plan, and made a number of investments that are starting to pay off. She thinks the shares will go higher.

metal fabricators
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$15.470
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY-N) 

January 24, 2018

People were thinking there was going to be volatility in 2017, but markets literally went straight up. Now the forecast for 2018 is higher volatility, and we’ll have to see what happens. This is based on the entire market, but you have to remember the market is not just made up of one thing, it is made out of other pieces of businesses. She runs a very concentrated portfolio, which allows her to cherry pick the parts of the market that she thinks will do well, so she is not just in the broad market. Doesn't see how people can do well by owning a broad market.

E.T.F.'s
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People were thinking there was going to be volatility in 2017, but markets literally went straight up. Now the forecast for 2018 is higher volatility, and we’ll have to see what happens. This is based on the entire market, but you have to remember the market is not just made up of one thing, it is made out of other pieces of businesses. She runs a very concentrated portfolio, which allows her to cherry pick the parts of the market that she thinks will do well, so she is not just in the broad market. Doesn't see how people can do well by owning a broad market.

E.T.F.'s
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$283.180
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Down 18%.) Everything played out in terms of the macro tailwinds that she had seen, but the company was so successful in taking market share from its smaller peers, that they decided they didn't want that to continue happening, so there was pricing pressure in one of their significant sectors. She sold her holdings after the latest earnings report.

misc industrial products
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(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Down 18%.) Everything played out in terms of the macro tailwinds that she had seen, but the company was so successful in taking market share from its smaller peers, that they decided they didn't want that to continue happening, so there was pricing pressure in one of their significant sectors. She sold her holdings after the latest earnings report.

misc industrial products
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$45.290
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Cardinal Health Inc(CAH-N) 

January 24, 2018

(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. 0% return.) There are really 3 players that dominate the entire space, and she switched to the leading player, Amerisourcebergen (ABC-N).

wholesale distributors
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(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. 0% return.) There are really 3 players that dominate the entire space, and she switched to the leading player, Amerisourcebergen (ABC-N).

wholesale distributors
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$74.690
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Tricon Capital Group(TCN-T) 

January 24, 2018

(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Up 13%.) Still thinks this is underperforming from where it should. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Thinks the upcoming quarter will be very good.

REAL ESTATE
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(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Up 13%.) Still thinks this is underperforming from where it should. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Thinks the upcoming quarter will be very good.

REAL ESTATE
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$10.680
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
CCL Industries (B)(CCL.B-T) 

January 24, 2018

CCL Industries or Intertape? She bought this at the start of 2013, and it has had a phenomenal run, but exited a couple of quarters ago. It seemed that a lot was being priced into this stock. She has another company she likes in packaging, where expectations are a lot more reasonable. (See Top Picks)

packaging/containers
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CCL Industries or Intertape? She bought this at the start of 2013, and it has had a phenomenal run, but exited a couple of quarters ago. It seemed that a lot was being priced into this stock. She has another company she likes in packaging, where expectations are a lot more reasonable. (See Top Picks)

packaging/containers
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$59.130
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Boeing(BA-N) 

January 24, 2018

This company has a huge backlog. There is a lot of demand for aircraft, and not a lot of companies that are producing. This is not something you want to own in a market correction. This is something that could do really, really well for you, but you have to be on top of this name for any signs of credit quality in a weakening economy, or even if the market started to top or turnover.

Transportation
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This company has a huge backlog. There is a lot of demand for aircraft, and not a lot of companies that are producing. This is not something you want to own in a market correction. This is something that could do really, really well for you, but you have to be on top of this name for any signs of credit quality in a weakening economy, or even if the market started to top or turnover.

Transportation
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$334.690
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

January 24, 2018

(For a 5-year hold?) Pretty well everybody in the sector has done a lot to take costs down, and make investments into digital enterprise. You have the combination of a rising rate environment that will be helpful. Credit quality across the group remains really strong. All this bodes well for the banks. She prefers Citigroup (C-N).

banks
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(For a 5-year hold?) Pretty well everybody in the sector has done a lot to take costs down, and make investments into digital enterprise. You have the combination of a rising rate environment that will be helpful. Credit quality across the group remains really strong. All this bodes well for the banks. She prefers Citigroup (C-N).

banks
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$32.090
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Facebook(FB-Q) 

January 24, 2018

Her portfolios don't have much that touches the end consumer, just because of how quickly consumers change their minds. Recent surveys showing usage trends seem to be down on the younger age groups. That is always a concern with companies like this, especially when it is trading at its current valuation multiple. If consumers changed how they viewed this company, that could be disastrous for the share price.

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Her portfolios don't have much that touches the end consumer, just because of how quickly consumers change their minds. Recent surveys showing usage trends seem to be down on the younger age groups. That is always a concern with companies like this, especially when it is trading at its current valuation multiple. If consumers changed how they viewed this company, that could be disastrous for the share price.

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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$186.550
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Cisco(CSCO-Q) 

January 24, 2018

Has owned this since 2012. There was a lot of fear on their switches and networking being old technology and their business was going to get destroyed. However, Cisco has managed this before. They take their installed base and then pivot to where the industry is going. Instead of selling switches and routers to IT people, they do consulting as to what is actually needed. They are selling a solution, as opposed to just a piece of hardware. Has done a good job on holding growth margins above 60%. The valuation is still attractive.

electrical/electronic
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Has owned this since 2012. There was a lot of fear on their switches and networking being old technology and their business was going to get destroyed. However, Cisco has managed this before. They take their installed base and then pivot to where the industry is going. Instead of selling switches and routers to IT people, they do consulting as to what is actually needed. They are selling a solution, as opposed to just a piece of hardware. Has done a good job on holding growth margins above 60%. The valuation is still attractive.

electrical/electronic
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Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. P, Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$42.170
Owned Owned
Yes

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