Bryden Teich

What really matters is what the daily flow is through the Strait of Hormuz. There's some great data on that, and everyone is able to watch it in real time. As long as there's a blockade, and as long as Iran's oil exports remain contained, we're slowly drawing down available reserves. That's a challenge.

It's being felt most specifically in Asia. It'll be different in NA, as we (fortunately) have so much domestic supply. Prices across the board are starting to move higher. The pressure point is ~$105.

Feels as though we're now entering the prolonged phase of the conflict in the Middle East. Eventually higher oil prices will hit the consumer, but we're still early in that process.

We're very bifurcated at this point. High oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and an Iran war stalemate on one hand; extremely high levels of AI infrastructure and US fiscal spending on the other.

As long as those trends continue, we'll see this seesaw back and forth. Last month the market was very strong, as were technology results. But at the same time there's uncertainty over energy prices.

We're now 2 years into accelerated spending from the US hyperscalers, and the spending continues to ramp higher. Tech results were really strong last week, and that's validating the level of spending for at least the next 6-9 months.

The concern that his firm has is that the companies spending all this $$ are not going to see a high enough ROIC to justify it in the long run. The long run doesn't matter at all right now. All that matters is that we had another good quarter of tech results and that spending will increase. We have the conditions for a boom, which works for many parts of the corporate sector.

Other parts of the corporate sector are hurting from oil prices. It's a real yin-yang balance in the market.

Much higher ROE than peers. Generates recurring high fees. He'd be buying for new clients. One of the best to own long term. Diversified, national presence.

Concern for all banks at these high valuations is that we have a recession or credit cycle.

Deal means roughly $8 a share in cash, rest as pro-rated SHEL shares. If you own ARX in a registered account, your capital gain is not taxed. If you own it in a taxable account, you'll be dealing with any consequences in March 2027.

You'll have to look at the cost base on the SHEL shares you receive. Best advice is to use a tax professional.

Challenge is its very traditional lending business. Cap on balance sheet has been removed, and shares have improved somewhat. Trouble is, peers are having really great results.

Huge run over last 2 years in infrastructure stocks due to pretty flat interest rates. Brookfield is an exceptional global manager. Great high-quality, long-term business. Yield is ~4%.

Right now, he sees more upside in energy infrastructure.

Debt needed to finance the deal. Leveraged buyout, with financing coming from TD instead of a US bank (interesting).

Long-speculated that it was looking to buy something. Might be a way to compete with AMZN. eBay enjoys a global presence. Many hurdles.

Sector's under pressure from risk of AI disruption. Has never been consistently profitable. Early innings of shaking out software winners and losers. This may or may not be the bottom. If you step in, do so incrementally.

Likes the royalty names. Challenge of current environment is that the sector was at such a psychological high earlier this year. Now it needs time to work that off.

He lightened exposure in Q1. Good long-term hold, but he'd be nervous about piling in just now.

Everyone's watching the next 12 months to see what the government's actually going to put in place. We're heading in the right direction.

Government's made it clear as to the levels of defense spending it wants to make. There's infrastructure associated with that component. They're trying to incentivize private capital to mobilize around larger infrastructure projects. Holdup on large projects has always been regulatory hurdles.

Portfolio managers need to take the larger themes and determine which companies will be helped/hurt by those themes. 

Not a Top Pick today, but they own TIH to play the infrastructure theme. Largest Caterpillar dealer in Canada, really good results for years. Also benefits from some AI data centre infrastructure spending. Now that everyone's wised up to it, it's run up. How do you manage these high-quality positions that are doing great, but have a lot of positive expectations priced in? Still owns, but at a moderate position size.

They own TIH to play the infrastructure theme. Largest Caterpillar dealer in Canada, with great stream of recurring, high-margin servicing revenue. Also benefits from some AI data centre infrastructure spending. Great management.

It's run up, with a lot of positive expectations priced in. Still owns, but at a moderate position size.

Making an acquisition by issuing shares often ends up being dilutive over time. He prefers a successful company to return excess capital to shareholders by decreasing the share count.

To be fair, stock's done really well. Great business. Diversified and grown. Bit more leverage than he likes. Trying to corner the market in some areas.

If it's a small position in a registered account, don't worry about it. If you have a small capital loss in a taxable account, good time to move on and wait for issues to resolve.

Nuclear is clearly part of the energy transition solution. His portfolios have a 2-2.5% position. You want to have a position small enough that you don't worry about it; that way, you don't get freaked out by boom/bust cycles.

AI spending is going to get to a point that the market just won't accept. As long as share price continues to be "OK", these companies will keep spending.

Problem here is that it's spending almost all of cashflow on capex, now outspending its own profitability. Started taking on debt. May not matter right now, but sometime it will.