Stock Opinions by Bryden Teich - Stockchase Experts
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Bryden Teich

On Stockchase since : Jan 2018

Portfolio Manager at Avenue Investment Management

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Stock Opinions by Bryden Teich - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

April 11, 2019

Market. The announcement on Brexit that it is kicked out to the end of the year and then there are constructive comments on the US / China trade relations, which are the two biggest clouds over markets. The big test now is what the earnings will look like. Next week we will know if the market was overextended when it went down in December. We have to see decent earnings for markets to continue going up. Guidance is key and the markets might be somewhat forgiving. JPM-N is not performing as well as the US market. He has fully exited the US banks. He sees the earnings environment tougher because of flattening yield curve. Interest rates have collapsed over the last three months that that is not good for banks. Canadian banks such as CM-T could be down 10% because of slowing credit growth in Canada. You have to time it right in getting out of this trade.
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Market. The announcement on Brexit that it is kicked out to the end of the year and then there are constructive comments on the US / China trade relations, which are the two biggest clouds over markets. The big test now is what the earnings will look like. Next week we will know if the market was overextended when it went down in December. We have to see decent earnings for markets to continue going up. Guidance is key and the markets might be somewhat forgiving. JPM-N is not performing as well as the US market. He has fully exited the US banks. He sees the earnings environment tougher because of flattening yield curve. Interest rates have collapsed over the last three months that that is not good for banks. Canadian banks such as CM-T could be down 10% because of slowing credit growth in Canada. You have to time it right in getting out of this trade.
Unknown
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
It is an amazing company. He cycled out of BAM.A-T to focus on BBU.UN-T. He was blown away in September about how they have build out their infrastructure. BAM.A-T is a great company and most people should be owning it.
management/diversified
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It is an amazing company. He cycled out of BAM.A-T to focus on BBU.UN-T. He was blown away in September about how they have build out their infrastructure. BAM.A-T is a great company and most people should be owning it.
management/diversified
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$63.400
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
It is an amazing company. He cycled out of BAM.A-T to focus on BBU.UN-T. He was blown away in September about how they have build out their infrastructure.
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It is an amazing company. He cycled out of BAM.A-T to focus on BBU.UN-T. He was blown away in September about how they have build out their infrastructure.
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$53.090
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Visa Inc.(V-N) 

April 11, 2019

The payment industry in the US has been a strong performer for some time. The issue is the multiple, being way too high. You have to be strategic about buying it when it is low. The credit card companies are well positioned to grow. He is worried about APPL-Q and their card disrupting the market. He would prefer AMEX, which he does not own at this point.
other services
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The payment industry in the US has been a strong performer for some time. The issue is the multiple, being way too high. You have to be strategic about buying it when it is low. The credit card companies are well positioned to grow. He is worried about APPL-Q and their card disrupting the market. He would prefer AMEX, which he does not own at this point.
other services
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$157.790
Owned Owned
No

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

April 11, 2019

They made a really big shift after the financial crisis, at growing their US franchise which they have been very successful at. Those that have established US businesses leave you more diversified. TD has a yield of just under 4% and he would like to continue to own it.
banks
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They made a really big shift after the financial crisis, at growing their US franchise which they have been very successful at. Those that have established US businesses leave you more diversified. TD has a yield of just under 4% and he would like to continue to own it.
banks
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$73.800
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

April 11, 2019

Utilities. Pure plays like FTS-T have performed very well because interest rates have come down so much. You get a pretty stable yield but he has focused on energy utility pipelines because there is better value. ALA-T is on his list to consider and he would look at it.
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Utilities. Pure plays like FTS-T have performed very well because interest rates have come down so much. You get a pretty stable yield but he has focused on energy utility pipelines because there is better value. ALA-T is on his list to consider and he would look at it.
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY
PacWest Bancorp(PACW-Q) 

April 11, 2019

A US regional bank focused on the west coast. But they face a much more fiercely competitive environment. There is not a ton of growth here. They are not that diversified.
banks
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A US regional bank focused on the west coast. But they face a much more fiercely competitive environment. There is not a ton of growth here. They are not that diversified.
banks
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$39.500
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
Nike Inc(NKE-N) 

April 11, 2019

It has been on a tear. They grew their business in Asia. The multiple is very high because it is such a globally well run company. He would be cautious because a slowdown in consumer spending would hit it. Watch consumer confidence.
misc consumer products
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It has been on a tear. They grew their business in Asia. The multiple is very high because it is such a globally well run company. He would be cautious because a slowdown in consumer spending would hit it. Watch consumer confidence.
misc consumer products
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$84.770
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
The environment for media assets has been difficult for a quarter or so. CJR.B-T still has a lot of debt and he thinks they will have a tough time servicing their debt going forward.
entertainment services
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The environment for media assets has been difficult for a quarter or so. CJR.B-T still has a lot of debt and he thinks they will have a tough time servicing their debt going forward.
entertainment services
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$7.520
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

With the differential in Calgary these guys performed well due to South American assets. They don't have the same pipeline issues. The concern is where their future growth is going to come from. You can get better value in Canadian names that have been beat up.

oil/gas
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With the differential in Calgary these guys performed well due to South American assets. They don't have the same pipeline issues. The concern is where their future growth is going to come from. You can get better value in Canadian names that have been beat up.

oil/gas
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$21.850
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 01/18, Up 31%) He still really likes it. They did a good job of acquiring stores and have redone the stores in the US and Canada. They are realizing the benefit of having a larger footprint. They have always reinvested in their business. They have the scale now to expand internationally. Don’t fight a trend like this.
food stores
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(A Top Pick Mar 01/18, Up 31%) He still really likes it. They did a good job of acquiring stores and have redone the stores in the US and Canada. They are realizing the benefit of having a larger footprint. They have always reinvested in their business. They have the scale now to expand internationally. Don’t fight a trend like this.
food stores
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$80.750
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 01/18, Up 21%) He still likes it. They have done a great job of turning over investments over the last two years. They are in all kinds of businesses all over the place. Hold for the long term.
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(A Top Pick Mar 01/18, Up 21%) He still likes it. They have done a great job of turning over investments over the last two years. They are in all kinds of businesses all over the place. Hold for the long term.
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$53.090
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

April 11, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 01/18, Up 30%) It was thrown out because of debt and rising interest rates. But everything was priced into it. They have long term assets. It is an incredible company. If line 3 gets through it will be incredibly. If it ran up he would trim profits.
oil/gas pipelines
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(A Top Pick Mar 01/18, Up 30%) It was thrown out because of debt and rising interest rates. But everything was priced into it. They have long term assets. It is an incredible company. If line 3 gets through it will be incredibly. If it ran up he would trim profits.
oil/gas pipelines
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$49.650
Owned Owned
Yes

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WATCH
Both Canadian rails have benefited from a growth in oil by rail. With an economy moderately expanding you have more volume though BC and Chicago. CNR-T is at a historical high vs. CP-T that is trading at a bit of a discount. He sold a bit of CNR-T earlier. Watch CNR-T to see if they are able to ramp down their capital expenditures to a more reasonable level. He likes it as a long term hold.
Transportation
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Both Canadian rails have benefited from a growth in oil by rail. With an economy moderately expanding you have more volume though BC and Chicago. CNR-T is at a historical high vs. CP-T that is trading at a bit of a discount. He sold a bit of CNR-T earlier. Watch CNR-T to see if they are able to ramp down their capital expenditures to a more reasonable level. He likes it as a long term hold.
Transportation
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$120.700
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
SNC-T sold their 407 highway earlier. This was a big piece. He is worried there is something else lurking out there on another of their projects. Don't buy it if you don’t like volatility.
contractors
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SNC-T sold their 407 highway earlier. This was a big piece. He is worried there is something else lurking out there on another of their projects. Don't buy it if you don’t like volatility.
contractors
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$34.050
Owned Owned
Unknown

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