
NASDAQ:AMZN
(A Top Pick Jan 19/17, Up 70%) It will continue to make people money. Don't put too much stock in what Trumps says. Amazon is growing rapidly and profitably. Its assets and sales keep rising tremendously every year, but not its debt. It reinvests its money in business opportunities. Will move into healthcare, advertising and content creation (Amazon Prime Video), and even banking. Delivers value.
It trades at a very high multiple. Amazon is only 20% of the online business and there's lot of global growth for it. Buy the dips. They're expanding quickly into many areas. Good and bad: Jeff Bezos reinvests all the revenues in trying new areas--he's innovative. He's made strategic acquisitions like Whole Foods. Also, there's a whole generation that wants to--and will--do everything online.
Is there a chance for a stock split? He owns this and thinks the split will be coming in the next year or two. He bought it last Christmas after shopping for family on their system – purely on gut feel. They are only scratching the surface on their distribution play. This should be in your portfolio for the next 20 years. Longer term there is risk if their position becomes too dominate.
He thinks it is easy for them to gain market share when you are not making any money. At some point governments will intervene to bust this company up as it is becoming dominate in too many spaces. At some point smart retailers will find ways to differentiate themselves to battle back against the company.
It is richly valued and it is difficult to model the downside of momentum stocks like this one. The company’s web services business provides a basis for estimating the value and risk of the company but does not represent enough of the total business. She will not buy it because it does not fit in with her investment approach.
Alibaba (BABA-N) or Amazon (AMZN-Q)? You can buy both and he would. Don't use multiples to under valuations, but rather look at invested capital. Estimates 15-20% return on invested capital for Amazon. Alibaba is equal if not slightly better than Amazon. 18% ROIC. Loves both, but would slightly prefer Alibaba.
Amazon (AMZN-Q) or Netflix (NFLX-Q)? Doesn't own either. Prefers Disney (DIS-N) as their pending purchase of 21st-Century Fox is going to remove the shackles and people are going to stop thinking of it as a cord cutting situation with lower subscriber participation, but more in terms of a streaming competitor to these 2. (See Top Picks.)
(A Top Pick June 20/17. Up 18%.) This is on quite a roll. Their business is expanding and will continue to do so massively for the next several years. The issue is profitability. They are throwing all their cash flow back into growing the business. When they slow down, the earnings will come roaring through.
He wrote a blog on FANGs. Basically he noted that a lot of these stocks moved a lot over their 200 day moving averages. He thinks they are overbought by 10% over. This one was 37% over the 200 day. He thinks it will return to its trend line. It is so overbought that it could drop more. $1100 or $1200 is a screaming buy.