Shopify Inc. (SHOP.TO)

Are well-run. Their challenge is to move from providing back-end services for their customers to drive customers to those small businesses--that's where the money is. That has been very difficult for Shopify, but are using AI now. They need to solve this before would consider this stock.

Likes the story. Total addressable market is massive. Trades at a huge multiple of 100x PE. Volatile, and you have to be able to stand that. Not suitable as a significant part of your portfolio. Unique. Its mousetrap works better than many others. Growth trajectory very good.

He made some nice $$ on it as it reached former peaks. But the stock blew by those and took out old resistance of 2021 highs. That's a breakout, and it's bullish, so nothing wrong with this stock.

High-priced stock, moves around. Big piece of the Canadian index, so an important stock for institutional investors. Nothing else like it in Canada, so it'll get lots of attention. RSI improving for last 18 months. Trading better than 91% of companies in the S&P. In general, earnings estimates being revised higher.

Coming up on old highs from 2021, so may be a bit of technical resistance. Growth stock. Right now, he's leaning more toward cyclical companies. But nothing about SHOP tells him it's not worth owning.

Remains very highly ranked within Canada on RSI. Bottomed out in April, but upward trend for a year now. Continues to go up. In tech, retailers have been picking up as central banks have started to cut interest rates.

Increasingly turning to enterprise customers. Lots of room for e-commerce to grow. Expanding to other jurisdictions and geographies. Long runway for growth. Expensive, but so it always is with great companies that disrupt and define a whole new segment.

A solid hold. Don't buy aggressively. Multiples are high, but execution phenomenal and will continue to. Margins will continue to expand. They are innovative. 

Are delivering on revenues; have upped that guidance in the past 2 quarters at 25% revenue growth. Have found their niche in mid/small businesses, a market that will continue to grow.  The valuation has fallen, though has never been low. Are hitting cash-flow break even, and are on the verge to  accelerate earnings growth. They have staying power.

Fantastic business; however, has done well partly because it's one of a very few tech names in the TSX. Worries about valuation. Technicals are doing well -- higher highs and higher lows, above 200-day MA. But PEG ratio is over 3x. PE is about 90x, and forward is the same, for 30% growth rate. Any hiccups on meeting expectations, and the stock has a bit to fall.

Better risk-adjusted names elsewhere.

"The NVDA of the North". Different businesses, but in the sense that everyone is flocking to that name. Very few tech names to own in Canada, so when we do find one it tends to get run up. In top 5 by market cap of TSX, and probably 6-7% of the entire TSX. That's huge.

Question now is "Does it deserve that premium valuation?" Reaching an all-time high. Very consumer driven. Expectations for growth are way too high. For her to look at it, would have to decrease by more than half. Too risky for her firm.

Has been fantastic. Really good recent quarter. Right-sizing cost structure. Integrating with large-language-model search platforms, and so all searches essentially lead to Shopify. Taking advantage of AI, rather than being overcome by it.

This type of company is out of his wheelhouse. He looks at cash flow; SHOP's free cash flow is too expensive. SHOP has been growing like gangbusters. He watches it, because it's significant in Canada. The changes in US taxation did not impair SHOP, surprisingly. Their business keeps going very well. Is a momentum name, but growth could slow and the street could focus on its cash flow down the road. The PE is rich.

He trimmed a bit. He'd beef up the position again if it dropped 10-15%. One of the companies that will dominate  the world for the next 1-2 decades. 

A tough one. Lots of speculation in the name. If you look at it with a purely quantitative view, you'd be a bit nervous. Still in the high growth, ramping up operations, risky "startup" phase. Improving ROC. Valuation makes him pause.

Doesn't have a problem owning it, but should not be core. If your portfolio has 20 stocks, 5% each, then this one should only be ~2%. With today's earnings pop, good to trim.

Pay attention to the old highs (~$200), and stock's getting close to them. Recent peak does appear to be breaking the last one. Probably will get to the $200 area, so still a few bucks to go. From there, that's when to start chewing your nails, as it's stalled there before when those old buyers just want their money back.