Colin Cieszynski

We're having a really good run since the US election. 

It's been interesting in terms of rotation. The first half of the year was dominated by big caps and tech. From about July until the election, we had a lot of choppiness and uncertainty. Since the election we've had another shift with the broader indices starting to go up, but the leadership has changed quite significantly.

The shift in leadership has seen some of the bigger names (like the Mag 7) start to slow down. Keep an eye on that. Tariffs are an issue. But the USD is a bigger factor; if it continues to go up, that can negatively impact multinationals regardless of whether they actually make something or not.

What's interesting about this year is what didn't happen. We didn't get a big correction in the summer, with August and September usually being weak and choppy. This year, the whole correction got compressed into about a week. Right at the beginning of August, we got a ton of volatility. And then it sorted itself out, and markets resumed their upward course.

Now we're in the time of year where markets are historically strong. So it's quite interesting going forward.

RSI is showing us primarily that the leadership we had before has changed. Even within technology, the first half of the year was dominated by semiconductors. Now they're coming off, and the sector has been dominated by software and communications.

Post-election, drug stocks have not done as well. Aerospace and defense have struggled through November. But we've seen good strength in financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary. A broadening out of the markets. We've also seen small- and mid-caps start to come back.

He's held it in the past, not now. Banks have lagged for a long time, but now doing really well. The first phase of the upward swing was due to interest-sensitives doing better with lower interest rates. The second phase is driven by post-election hopes for deregulation and economy-friendly moves.

Correction for most of this year, gave back over half of its previous move and that's pretty significant. Started to pick up in last week or so, looks as though it wants to break out of a downtrend. Ideally, want to see it get above $40.

Usually in technical analysis you buy the breakout, especially when the chart shows a staircase pattern. Rally, consolidation, rally, consolidation, and so on. Some people say wait for a retest, which is about $4400. Risk is that it doesn't retest and just keeps on going. It becomes a bit of a coin toss.

Technically, there's a very significant technical breakout underway. Highly ranked on an RSI basis.

Pretty range-bound, between $12-15, for a couple of years. Looks as though it's pulled back into the middle. Steady stock, steady and mature business. More of a yield play. Yield is 7%.

Broken out to new highs. Benefits from falling interest rates, which should continue in Canada even if not in the US. Energy is a foundation of our economy, and as our economy grows we'd expect energy demand to grow as well. May have additional boost from newer sectors, like nuclear, growing more rapidly.

Accelerated this year, and has broken out to new highs. Benefits from falling interest rates. 

Intriguing. Fantastic run for much of this year. Nice uptrend recently broken, may be moving into a sideways trend. After a run, not unusual for gold to go into a consolidation range for a few months.

Starting to see a symmetrical triangle formation on the chart. We've had lower highs, but also higher lows -- struggling to get upside, but still has support on the downside. Recent support around $2600. $2500 is a huge round number so it's a psychological marker. $2400 is the previous breakout point. 

Using Fibonacci retracement you could get some kind of retracement in the 38% range, around $2600, and we're just kind of sitting there now. Looking at the chart for gold, you can see the breakout earlier this year at $2000, with the peak about $2800. That's a move of 800 points, so a 50% retracement is a move of 400 points which would put you back at $2400, which is a previous breakout point. 

Based on a mathematical equation. Helps you measure how big a correction or advancement could be. Most people tend to use it for corrections. The feeling is that there are 3 levels of note -- 38%, 50%, and 62%. These numbers come up all over the place in all kinds of relationships, not just those related to the stock market. For example, 62% is the relationship between miles and kilometres :)

A lot of US media stocks have struggled over the past year. In the last little while, looks as though they've started to bottom out and stabilize. Still in a primary downtrend, but may be starting to build a floor. Might take a bit longer. Want to see it breaking out around $35-36, or at least above $30 to verify that it has some oomph behind it.

Banks have been doing well. US banks have been doing well, so those Canadian banks with US exposure are benefiting too. Accumulating for a few months now, looking great. Resistance at $135, and we're approaching it. If it starts to break $135, technically it would look absolutely fantastic. Next resistance would be around $150. Previous support was around $115.

Note that he manages funds and ETFs for BMO Global Asset Management.

(Note the short timeframe.)
A substitute for cash when you're feeling a bit cautious. Slow and steady, conservative. When he chose it markets were selling off, presidential election was looming, seasonal weakness was upon us. And then the bull market resumed a week later.

(Note the short timeframe.)
Still ranked very high on RSI. Gold stocks have had a bit of a correction since the election as uncertainty diminished and the USD and crypto took off.