Colin Cieszynski

It's something we've needed for quite some time. You want broad economic growth, not concentrated in one or two sectors (as that brings risk). Broadening is a good thing.

We had these stocks that were growing off of AI, and they've been delivering spectacular growth. But they've also had spectacular increases in share prices, which becomes a potential source of volatility. 

The question is whether valuations are too high given projected growth? As we've seen here, some of the price adjustments can be pretty abrupt.

The volatility/uncertainty could continue for quite some time. What was really interesting was that as ceasefires were announced, the price of oil went down a lot more than the price of gasoline. Seems to indicate that the market was pricing in a certain amount of risk at the downstream end -- despite any movements in crude oil, the gasoline that is traded for use was indicating that it's not all sunshine and rainbows.

Crude oil probably overshot too much to the downside, now it's come back around $80, and we'll see where it goes from here.

Generally trending upward since it bottomed out in November. Big runup ahead of the SpaceX IPO. Recently starting to break down. Key level has been $45; if it holds there, that's encouraging. If not, then it's shifting into more of a correction.

Between February and April, looks to have put in a double bottom. Now in sideways trading range, appears to be bottoming out. Encouraging so far. Support seems in $2600-2700 range. Resistance probably $3000 to start; above that would be more a sign that a recovery trend is underway.

Hasn't aggressively turned up yet. Consolidating. So far, so good.

He sold, as its relative strength decreased. Still weakening. Next support appears to be ~$120.

Right now in the lower half of his universe (the "red zone"). Pulled back, and is underperforming. Chart shows it's starting to show signs of life; seems to be moving into a sideways range (let's say between $55-70). Not attractive on RSI, but is climbing up within that range.

Pretty nice move up, now pulled back. Chart shows a staircase -- rallies, holds at a higher level, rallies, holds. May find support around $30. Long-term RSI and technical trends are favourable, as is the aerospace sector.

Ranks second in his RSI Canadian stock universe. Doing really well. Another staircase pattern -- rally, consolidate, rally, etc. Its RSI is great.

RSI is in the lower half of his US equity universe, in the "red zone". Big run, but rolling down. Down 10% today. Breaking down technically. Took out $1000 and kept on going. Not looking great. Underperforming overall market.

His firm doesn't use seasonality in investing, as it's too granular. They use changes in RSI and capital flows instead. He's done a lot of work on it over the years -- it helps somewhat with bigger trends, but he's always struggled with how it helps in the shorter term.

Breaking out of a downtrend here -- encouraging. In the "yellow-neutral zone" (26-50% of stocks). Not bad. Looks to have bottomed and be turning up. Encouraging so far.

RSI in the "red zone", lower half of the Canadian stock universe. Climbed above $28, sitting below resistance of $35. If it broke out over $35, that would be huge and signal an uptrend.

Building a base for now. That's where legging into a stock in tranches makes sense. You manage both your price and your risk. If it breaks out, you can accelerate your buying; if it goes the other way, you can pull out.

Nicely base-building. Struggled in the first half of the year, bottomed out in May. Since then, steadily higher highs and lows below a fixed resistance level (an "ascending triangle"). The pattern hasn't completed, but it's emerging and looks encouraging.