Colin Cieszynski

Stock's struggling. Not one he follows, so doesn't have any insight as to why. Consistently downward trend of lower highs and lower lows, and that trend's still pretty intact. The trend is your friend (or enemy) until it ends. Broke down again yesterday. 

For recovery, you want to see it break that trend and go through $8.60. 

Chart looks interesting. Early stages, but looks as though it's successfully retested support at $31.50 USD from April and early July. Getting towards the top of its $31-34 trading range. So far, so good. Long-term underperformer, near bottom of his Canadian RSI large-cap rankings. 

Technically quite encouraging if it was able to break out above $34.
(Note prices in USD.)

Chart looks interesting. Early stages, but looks as though it's successfully retested support at $31.50 USD from April and early July. Getting towards the top of its $31-34 trading range. So far, so good. Long-term underperformer, near bottom of his Canadian RSI large-cap rankings. 

Technically quite encouraging if it was able to break out above $34.
(Note prices in USD.)

Looking back 2-3 years, bounces back and forth between $340 and $430. Recent downswing from April-July, finding support around $350. However, started to bounce over last 2 days, encouraging. First resistance $410-415, next at $430-435, with the $400 round number in between. Trading upswing within a long-term trading range.

Energy stocks in Canada have been a challenge. Big run at start of the year, rolling over since then. Disappointing, given that price of oil holding nicely above $80 USD. Peaked around $56, steady stream of lower highs. 

Now looking for how it acts around $50. Broke $50 in June, traded down to $45 and bounced, hit $50 and started to stall. If it were to climb back up through $50 in a meaningful way, would be really encouraging. But when you see an old support become a new resistance, especially a big round number like $50, and it fails, that becomes a new concern that it's still under distribution and not ready yet.

It's true. Everything on the surface seems absolutely fantastic. It's akin to when he goes hiking on the Scarborough Bluffs. You can look out and see this beautiful view and the lake, and everything looks amazing. But there's this fence with a sign saying "Don't go any further than here," because even though the ground looks stable, it's actually caving in underneath. If you step over there, you could fall. 

That's how he feels about the markets right now. The indexes keep hitting new all-time highs, but when you start looking underneath, the picture isn't quite so rosy.

He's been doing a lot of comparison of different markets and indices. Even within countries like Canada and the United States, you can get very different performance between large-caps stocks and small caps. 

Look at a chart comparing the S&P 500 vs. S&P 100 vs. Russell 2000. The S&P 500 has been trending up since October 2023. The S&P 100 has also been going up, but at an even faster pace. The more important one is the Russell, flat since January, but going down in the last month or so. People are dialing back their exposure to the small caps, and the gains are getting more and more concentrated in the big caps.

The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index, which means that stocks with the largest market caps have the largest weight in the index as well. Compare that to the equal-weight index, where each company has the same representation within the index. 

He considers them fellow travellers, most of the time they trend in the same direction. When you start seeing differences, that's a flag you always want to pay attention to. They were going in the same direction for about 6 months. Now the market-cap weighted is going to new all-time highs, but the equal-weight index has gone flat. This suggests that the gains are being concentrated in a small number of large-cap stocks, whereas the broader index isn't necessarily participating as much.

Dow industrials have gone to new all-time highs, but the other Dow indexes haven't done quite as well. Transport, in particular. For over 100 years, technicians have looked at Dow industrials vs. transports, feeling that the two of them should be fellow travellers. So if you get a new high in one, in short order you should be getting a new high in the other one.

This hasn't been the case more recently. Industrials hit all-time highs, and then dropped back a little bit. More importantly, Dow transports have levelled off. They haven't confirmed the industrials' new high, and they've actually started to go down.

A fair question. We've seen technology do incredibly well lately. 

But at the end of the day, most people want to go out and buy goods and services, and these have to be transported by truck or by rail. Or people travel for business or vacations on airplanes. Part of the internet economy is ordering things online, and those go through the courier companies. At some point, all these things need to get transported.

November-March: fantastic. Leveled off in recent weeks, as has the sector. Now consolidating, normal. Engineering stocks have picked up recently, but hasn't yet carried through to this name.

Auto sector mixed. Supply issues. Peaked in March, now lower highs and lows. Downward trend suggests traders selling the rallies. Just because a group moves in a certain direction, doesn't mean everything does at the same time.

When everything's going up together, makes it harder to differentiate on a technical basis. He compares stocks head to head using charts to see which are outperforming.

Right now, NVDA has been the highest ranked stock in US reports, and that's the one he holds. In Canada, CLS has been the highest-ranked stock, and his portfolios hold that as well. MU has been trailing a bit, but might catch up, hard to say.

When everything's going up together, makes it harder to differentiate on a technical basis. He compares stocks head to head using charts to see which are outperforming.

Right now, NVDA has been the highest ranked stock in US reports, and that's the one he holds. In Canada, CLS has been the highest-ranked stock, and his portfolios hold that as well. MU has been trailing a bit, but might catch up, hard to say.

When everything's going up together, makes it harder to differentiate on a technical basis. He compares stocks head to head using charts to see which are outperforming.

Right now, NVDA has been the highest ranked stock in US reports, and that's the one he holds. In Canada, CLS has been the highest-ranked stock, and his portfolios hold that as well. MU has been trailing a bit, but might catch up, hard to say.