Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management
Member since: Mar '24 · 188 Opinions
At the moment, it looks as though they want to keep on going. Steady march upward is quite impressive. More importantly, seeing catch-up in addition to gold. Silver finally broke out over $35 for the first time in years, and it's taking another big run at $50. It's like we saw in 2011.
Platinum is starting to move. On his way in to the studio, he heard someone talking about palladium (no one ever talks about palladium ;) so you know that things are really getting going.
Rallying in precious metals is in anticipation of a general weakness in currencies such as the USD. We're seeing gold go up against all currencies.
He's finding recently that we're starting to see rotation within it. Some parts are starting to level off and even have corrections. But the parts related to AI are still doing well.
Small caps, too, are doing well. The mega-caps have run so far for so long, that now some people are taking profits and are looking at small- and mid-caps. Those areas haven't moved up as much and have room to catch up.
What was interesting about September was that we had a great move in resource markets -- Canada, Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa. The other part is in the Asia-Pacific where China had a good month, as did Taiwan and Korea.
Rally is pretty broad-based, but most of what he's seeing is that countries sensitive to technology and metals are doing particularly well right now.
Peaked in 2023 and then downtrend until middle of this year. Chart shows really nice base forming, with early-stage accumulation. Watch to see if it continues or levels off; so far so good. Made a higher low back in the summer and now steadily climbing. Resistance ~$200 -- if it breaks out above, looks really exciting.
Rolling over a bit here. Part of the trend of capital rotating out of big-cap names. He came out of it in the summer as it started to weaken. Fairly sizable correction in last couple of months, not sure bottomed out yet. Still in downtrend of lower highs. He'd at least want to see it back above $4k.
At $80 in the spring, got above $240. A triple in a few months. With that type of explosive move, doesn't take much for people to say that's it, I'm out, and take profits -- doesn't even have to be directly related to the company itself. Hanging out ~$200, previous resistance ~$180 and that's potential support. Resistance perhaps $225 on a bounce.
Given the two peaks in August and September, watch for a head-and-shoulders top; too early to say right now. At the moment, looks like normal pullback after humongous move.
Broke out of long-term downtrend, working its way higher. That breakout was driven by the takeover offer. Stocks of companies being taken over often rally to the offer price and then just flatline.
But copper today is $5, good commodity price support. So in this case, could see some movement (and in the sector) if it trades off the commodity price. If copper blasts through $5, could lift the copper stocks.
Rocket ride out of its range of $600 support and $850 resistance. For a target price, he often takes the difference (~$250) and adds it to the breakout price, which gives you ~$1100. Some people use a dollar or percentage trailing stop -- ensures you don't get kicked out too early, but also allows you to take profits if it starts to roll over.
Semis and AI are still holding up for now in large caps. He'd hold, with an eye to taking profits. With this type of big move, you can wake up one day and all of a sudden you're down 10%.
At his firm, they do relative strength analysis. This involves head-to-head battles of stocks/indices/sectors against each other -- billions of calculations every single night. It tells them who's winning these battles. Gives insight into where $$ is going in and where it's coming out. The result tells them who's outperforming on a relative basis, or if it's a case of the tide lifting or sinking all boats.
For example, starting to see energy stocks come up in the RSI rankings. Particularly intriguing because the price of oil isn't doing all that great. Last week, looked as though it wanted to move; this week, not so much with the uncertainty of the OPEC+ meeting coming up. ADP payrolls came out yesterday, and people are wondering how strong, really, is the outlook for demand.
When you're wondering, technicians historically say that stocks tend to lead commodities. In this case, even though oil isn't doing well, the energy stocks are starting to do really well.
(Note the short timeframe.) In March at the time of this pick, market was tanking and so defensive stocks were at the top of the rankings. Trump delayed tariffs, and the market hasn't looked back since. That's when he sold. Rotation out of defensive and back to cyclicals, momentum, aggressive, confident technology, communications and precious metals.
This one will be left behind and sideways unless people become fearful again.