Shopify Inc.SHOP.TOSELLNov 13, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 13, 2026. Market Open.
Ad revenues are being hurt with subscribers pulling back. Cutting marketing and staff. Will the economy slow, thereby reducing customers shopping online? Trades ~75x forward PE. It's a domino effect of whether it can keep margins up, which keeps cashflow up, which makes earnings rise. If not, there will be hiccups in a stock priced for perfection.
Secular winner. Omnichannel merchandising in a box, with an actively growing POS business. Merchant solutions (~80% of sales) include add-ons to monthly subscriptions. Great second quarter, sales up in 30% range and earnings ~20%. Guidance calls for more of the same.
Increasingly demonstrating that AI is not a disruptor, but a tool. Lots of FCF, buying back lots of shares. In middle innings of the global e-commerce story. Expensive (as always), ~70x PE. Use the charts to buy in.
Hit earlier in the year on the SaaSpocalypse, which was misguided to some degree. Won't get replaced, very agentic. About 14% of total US e-commerce, major player. Always rich, but now at the low end. Spending hasn't increased, yet cashflow is growing. META Muse announcement has lifted stock recently.
He tends to look south of the border for tech names. Performed well since mid-2022. Very nice pattern of higher highs and higher lows. As well, 200-day MA is moving higher. Valuation is where he stops and thinks twice -- 91x forward PE, for 30% growth. That's a 3x PEG ratio, pricey relative to other mega-cap tech names.
Margins under pressure from greater transaction losses. Very exposed to small-medium businesses, which tend to have higher failure rates. Competition from AMZN, CRM and ADBE.