Shopify Inc. (SHOP.TO)

Strong performer last year. Not cheap despite pressure on shares. Probably primary bet for AI exposure in Canadian tech. Good quality. Expects further volatility. Likes, but needs further downside to get excited.

Once you get in, a long-term hold.

For money managers looking for GARP (growth at a reasonable price), this name has always had valuation issues. Despite EPS expectations of 30+%, you're paying a lot for it. Current PE is 75x, forward PE is 57-58x. Price-to-sales is almost 10x going forward. Beta is 2x the TSX. In the US, many names are cheaper by PEG ratio.

Caters to small- and medium-sized businesses, so you have to keep an eye out for that. Those businesses tend to be more volatile at the end of the business cycle and, indeed, may not survive.

Usually a decent trading name, but now price is below 200-day MA (which is still trending higher, which is good). Watch out if it breaks to the downside of that. Though doesn't suffer from the AI scare, part of the broader rotation away from tech.

Trades at a FCF yield of 1%, very rich multiple. Growth was very good, but takes a lot to live up to the valuation. Likes the business, but not the valuation (even today). Stay away.

This week ATB Capital upgraded its rating to Outperform from Sector Perform. MoffatNathanson similarly elevated its rating to BUY. The stock had naturally experienced significant downward pressure previously. There is no additional news to report. Strong earnings results are broadly anticipated. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Great Canadian success story. Gold standard in e-commerce. Increasingly catering to large enterprises. Tiered-price-point monthly recurring subscription fees. Adding on financial services of various kinds. 

Increasing partnerships. Aggressive international expansion strategy. Long-term secular tailwinds for e-commerce. Innovation pushes up the take rate from transactions. He expects 33% compounded growth rate over next 3 years. Always pricey, now at 59x forward PE (down from 5-year average of 70x). No dividend.

Loves the company, management are geniuses. But even with the falloff, shares are trading at 60x PE. Too expensive for him. You're betting on continued huge growth, which looks to be moderating due to the law of large numbers.

Strong financial results and a positive forecast would certainly be beneficial. SHOP had been underperforming leading up to this week, though without any specific catalyst. News related to Anthropic AI affected the stock earlier in the week, but they believe the market reaction was disproportionate. There haven't been any adverse company developments, and several brokerage firms have issued supportive commentary over the last week and a half. The stock rose alongside broader markets on Friday before pulling back, though they wouldn't place too much weight on a single day's performance. Even so, its 32% year-to-date decline appears excessive considering analysts' projections and the company's prospects. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Rotation out of some of the high flyers over the past year or so. Appreciated fairly significantly coming out of last April's lows. Then for whatever reason (and sometimes there's no reason) you get a selloff. Sometimes a name gets caught up in the laundry and you just have to ride it out.

Probably the best Canadian tech name. Platform's used across significant marketplaces, and doesn't know that that's going to change. If you want Canadian tech, you could look at this name. However, he'd look at MSFT or NVDA -- also down, but a straighter path to upside.

Its business is doing fantastic. So many companies are reporting good results, yet market is concerned (perhaps about AI or about valuation). NASDAQ's having a good day today, but that can turn on a dime on any macro news. 

His firm stayed away on valuation; they go for 30-40x PE maximum. High-premium companies bring a lot of risk, and you should expect a lot of volatility even if they meet earnings expectations.

Sold off as part of the broader software selloff, which she's using as an opportunity to add. Will benefit from AI -- embedded in products will make shopping experience more effective. CEO is on the forefront of innovation. Likes it a lot here.

A lot to like with their business, but stumbles upon its valuation. Growth is still there. It can sell off a lot, as the last 5 years show.

The Canadian darling with a great CEO. It is integrating, not fighting, AI platforms--good, and OpenAI is shifting towards shopping, which favours SHOP. SHOP is partnering with Google to achieve this. Meanwhile, Meta is investing heavily in AI to create more-targeted advertising. Shopify benefits from this without spending a dollar.

Online shopping isn't going away. Retailers aren't going to need less help getting products to market. AI will be involved. Doesn't know if SHOP will be the dominant player in the space. Sector still has life in it. If you own it and have done well, no harm taking a bit off the table.

It is heavily into AI. For example it won't hire someone if it can proved AI can do the job. It is working AI into its merchants platform. An AI catalogue is coming whereby an AI agent searches all the merchants available for a product and can even process the transactions. Shopify tends to have higher quality vendors than Amazon.

Not a bad chart, but is a volatile stock. If you're into Canadian tech, you have to own this. Is very global, but tied to consumption. The consumer has not been the most robust. Hold the right proportion in your portfolio.