Shopify Inc. (SHOP.TO)

AMD vs. Shopify

Prfers SHOP. AMD is fully priced. He targets $125 USD for SHOP. Don't sell AMD, just raise some calls against it.

No idea if there's more upside. Very expensive. Doesn't have the consistency he looks for. Better opportunities at better prices elsewhere.

Fine job in utilizing AI, becoming more efficient. Cosmetics and clothing are two of its bigger channels, and these are among the easiest to switch supply chains. This makes those segments relatively less impacted by trade and tariff volatility. No dividend.

Look at the 5-year chart. The peak in 2021 concerns him on valuation. Not surprising that it came into resistance when it entered a similar window earlier this year. Likes buying dips, don't chase here.

A Canadian stock that will be a major beneficiary of AI. 

Valuation is 61x forward PE with 25% growth, giving a PEG ratio of well over 2x. 200-week MA is trending lower, which is not a fantastic technical sign. Have to watch out for rivals such as AMZN and ETSY. Depends more on small-and mid-sized businesses, which can be affected more by any economic downturn.

Not ready to buy. Stock's suffered, but still not cheap. Lots of growth is built into the share price. If recession, consumers will stop buying or buy less. He'd prefer AMZN, quite frankly.

Growth company that hasn't been smashed, despite coming down from highs. Flirting with getting into the NASDAQ 100; if it goes down there, will be a lot more buying. Last quarter earnings were good, subscription revenue up, and executing well. But it's pricey.

Must-own name, but you have to buy it at the right level. Very whippy, use the technicals to buy.

Pullbacks are great opportunities to add. Continues to invest in R&D. Payments is a big growth vector, still available in only a handful of countries. Secular rise in e-commerce still has room to run.

The stock has been volatile, as all growth stocks have been recently. We think merchant customers and the company can adapt well enough. However, the consumer spending impact of tariffs remains a variable. Consumer confidence has dropped, and if tariffs induce inflation then business may certainly be negatively impacted overall. Silver linings might be valuation (better of course with the decline) and sentiment (market sentiment is so bad currently any good news could amplify moves). It remains a high Beta stock. Down 11% YTD, it has actually held up better than many others.
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Down ~30% from recent highs, but still above 200-day MA, which is also moving higher. Technically, shares still look sound. Pricey at 61x forward PE for 20-25% earnings growth, a PEG ratio of 2.5x. He prefers US names for tech.

Doesn't think it will start a dividend. You actually don't want companies to pay dividends when there are still so many growth opportunities. Investor Day listed 5 areas ripe for growth, problem is market's already pricing this in. Trading ~100x PE, too expensive for him.

In his momentum mandate. Increasingly catering to large-enterprise customers, not just small and medium players. Lots of admiration for the business model.

Very volatile. Options are very expensive. Sell puts $165 April for around $5. 

Never owned it. After it went public, it was growing revenue at 80%, but was unprofitable. He can't value a company losing money. But SHOP Is shifting: revenue growth is falling as margins rise. It trades at 103X PE, which is not good considering their growth rate.