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Stock Opinions by Robert Gill

COMMENT
Markets drifting along, underperformance under the hood?

Absolutely. Halfway through the year, so a good time to look at the big picture. TSX is up about 4% YTD, compared to the S&P 500 up 14%. But if you take a look at the equal weight S&P 500, it's up only about 5%, similar to Canada. 

Equal weight S&P 500 is an important barometer of the US market, simply because it's not skewed by 3 or 4 multi-trillion dollar companies.

Unknown
COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Volatility.

Not surprising that markets are very volatile right now, lots going on in the world. And we continue to adjust for inflation and higher rates. Biggest disruption and risk seem to be geopolitical -- Middle East (escalating as opposed to abating), Russia's invasion of Ukraine into its 3rd year, US election with a lot riding on the outcome.

A lot of external factors are influencing markets right now, leading to a complicated and fluid situation.

Unknown
COMMENT
Is the market mispricing risk?

There are pockets of value and opportunity. He still thinks Canada is a great place to invest. We're a very stable country economically and politically, inflation is really coming down, and the TSX valuation (15.3x) is a lot cheaper than the S&P 500 (24x). The TSX also looks better for tapping into a stream of income.

Unknown
COMMENT
Is appeal of TSX derailed by yesterday's unexpected pickup in inflation?

Interesting point. First time in 2024 that's happened, where the numbers were not as expected. But no, the thesis for investing in Canada has not been derailed. 

We saw a BOC interest rate cut recently. Going forward, if there are more cuts, certain sectors should benefit more than others. These include banks, utilities, and telcos. So he's fairly constructive on that area. These companies offer big dividend yields. In a rising interest rate environment, fixed income also offers interesting investment opportunities. Investors tend to sell some of these higher-yielding names and shift into fixed income for the better-perceived risk-adjusted return.

Unknown
COMMENT
Higher dividend yields and cheaper valuations still are not luring investors to the TSX?

We need to give it some time. Rates are really high right now, higher than they've been for many years. We've only had one small cut. Money will become cheaper, which means more investment and more growth in future. 

Overall, to prosper in this environment, you need to buy high-quality companies with strong balance sheets. Make sure you have a properly diversified portfolio. See his article in the Financial Post or on the blog at goodreid.com.

Unknown
COMMENT
Surprising that BOC's rate cut didn't benefit the interest-sensitives like telcos and real estate?

It's notable, but not cause for concern. Only 25 bps was taken off. Lots of other factors are involved in the fundamentals of these companies, interest rates are simply one small thing. At the end of the day, remember that these companies trade on fundamentals such as profitability, debt, and valuation multiples.

Unknown
DON'T BUY
Cargojet Inc

Choppy business, considerable earnings volatility. Recent contract with Temu in e-commerce sector, improves growth profile. Profitability below industry average, more debt than he wants. 45x trailing PE, 30x forward PE, but the market only trades at 15.3x. Yield is less than 1%.

More interesting if drops to less than $100 a share.

Transportation & Environmental Services
HOLD

Good company, strong financials, strong management. Expects continued dividend increases. Should benefit from higher oil prices. Good long-term hold. Cheaper than ENB. 12% profitability, slightly better than current TSX. Balance sheet quite strong, especially for a pipeline. Impressive yield.

Take a look at TRP, less expensive.

pipelines
BUY
TC Energy

Less expensive than either ENB or PPL, with higher dividend income.

oil / gas pipelines
BUY

Blue chip, high quality. Shares correcting a bit. Strong operations, well managed, impressive yield. Cyclical, so results can be volatile from time to time. Pretty good free cashflow with current oil price, and he expects price to remain high. Met debt target last year, now returning cashflow to shareholders.

Buy here, add on further weakness.

oil / gas
COMMENT
Price of oil.

Impossible to predict, but expects it to remain high. Asian economies are continuing to open and grow, which will increase energy demand. Geopolitical conflicts around the world are contributing to a bump in the price.

Unknown
DON'T BUY
Canadian Utilities

Likes the recurring revenue and steady revenue streams. One of the more profitable utilities in Canada. Pretty strong balance sheet. Good dividend yield. However, he'd look at TRP instead for more attractive valuation and higher yield.

electrical / electronic
BUY
CAE Inc

Difficulty with defense side, longer-term contracts crimping profitability, those will wind down in 2025. Signing more profitable contracts in the meantime. Likes it. Very well run. Not a lot of similar companies, so shares usually trade at a premium. Market-average profitability, pretty strong balance sheet.

Geopolitical conflict begets defense spending. Airline travel was one of the key drivers of the elevated CPI print yesterday, so pilots will continue to be in demand. He'd buy here, and add more on weakness.

transportation equip & components
BUY

Global leader, geographically well diversified. Most revenue comes from fuel. Soft earnings this quarter, due to gas margins and reduced same-store sales; Canada was more impacted than Europe or US. 

As inflation comes down, rates will come down, and consumer spending should pick up. So he expects higher earnings going forward. Strong balance sheet ready to go with more M&A. Buy here, hold long term.

food stores
DON'T BUY
Telus Corp
Telus vs. BCE

85% revenue from services, 15% from hardware. Usually trades at a premium to peers due to higher growth and further ahead in fibre to the home. Should benefit from immigration. Most diversified of the Big 3.

Not as much leverage on BCE's balance sheet as peers. Shares have contracted to a very attractive valuation, plus a 9% yield. He'd choose BCE at this point.

telephone utilities
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