Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager at Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Member since: Apr '07 · 1020 Opinions
Rating Card
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| 2.58 | 64 27.59% | 35 15.09% | 17 7.33% | 49 21.12% | 67 28.88% | ||
| 1 Month | 2.3 | 10 19.23% | 11 21.15% | 5 9.62% | 23 44.23% | 3 5.77% | |
| 6 Months | 3.61 | 17 32.08% | 7 13.21% | 8 15.09% | 9 16.98% | 12 22.64% | |
| 12 Months | 2.32 | 15 28.30% | 8 15.09% | 4 7.55% | 8 15.09% | 18 33.96% | |
| 2 Years | 1.23 | 11 24.44% | 5 11.11% | 0 0.00% | 6 13.33% | 23 51.11% | |
| 5 Years | 3.45 | 11 37.93% | 4 13.79% | 0 0.00% | 3 10.34% | 11 37.93% |
Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva
Gold is a key beneficiary of uncertainty and "chaos". It's done well since the US election being up about 20%, and YTD even more. It will continue to benefit from the uncertainty and wild swings.
Though the market has recovered from April, no one's sure from a sector-to-sector basis what President Trump will do in terms of tariffs. Recent moves in aluminum and steel, but we're still quite a ways from understanding the overall goal and where things will ultimately settle.
All this is beneficial to gold in the short and medium terms, but at the end of the day his long-term perspective on gold is continued central bank buying. Central banks have realized the need to diversify away from the USD, which probably started with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It woke up the world to the fact that not everything is as secure or stable in the world as you think. People are worried about US debt, running GDP deficits, and so forth. Drives people to reevaluate how they want to own the USD and perhaps diversify into something like gold.
There's a level of complacency now where people have seen the US administration come out with these dramatic numbers and then pull back in reaction to market perception. Gold is like an underwater current. There's this steady current of central bank buying, and then above the surface you have investor demand that comes and goes.
We'll see steady improvement in gold, with significant gyrations. In the last 2 months we've seen 2-3% swings in gold, which is uncharacteristic. It's due to the underlying significant inflows and outflows of ETFs, which drive the price on a day-to-day basis.
Keep your eye on the prize of what you think is happening fundamentally over the next 6-18 months, and he doesn't see the underlying story changing.
Fairly good resistance around $60, whether it's $1 above or $1 below. Market's grappling with the demand side and whether this uncertainty, and these significant changes in global trade, will mean economic slowdown. Despite OPEC hikes, what keeps it in this fairly equilibrium state ~$60 is supply coming off. US shale production will probably decline over the next couple of years, because $60 means skinnier profits.
Doesn't currently own; has been in and out, depending on how he feels about copper. Approximately the 11th largest producer of copper globally, a lot of which is pinned on the QB2 mine (a year behind, struggling to get up to full speed). But it will double copper production by 2027. Once that mine is steadier, probably looking at more share buybacks which is good for organic ROIC for shareholders.
Trades at a discount. Thinks he'll be back in very soon. He likes where copper is, even with the uncertainty around China. Q3 is probably when we'll start to see some really good momentum in the stock.
Won't find a single oil stock that will defy gravity if the price of oil drops. A bit more susceptible to the noise around tariffs, especially on energy, because they're not as integrated as other names. That risk has largely dissipated. About 27% gas, so not pure oil.
Best in class. Second-to-none for consistent per-share growth, profitability, FCF, returning capital to shareholders. Nice yield of 5.5%.
Has made tremendous strides over the last couple of years. BMO's report on insider buying shows highest level in last 5 years, and that speaks volumes. Timing is quite good, with oil showing resistance at $60. Very healthy at under 1x debt to EBITDA.
Look beyond 2025, when tariffs will have been resolved. Energy should bypass a lot of that because of how strategic it is, so we're not going to see a 50% tariff.
Showing good downstream turnarounds. Look beyond 2025, when tariffs will have been resolved. Energy should bypass a lot of that because of how strategic it is, so we're not going to see a 50% tariff. Buy this and sleep at night, because you don't have to worry about tariff implications a few months from now.
Management has proven ability to operate in difficult environments. DRC min is 4th largest copper mine in the world, so recent seismic event is unfortunate. Significant potential, but he wishes it were in another jurisdiction.
There's no such thing as an easy path when talking about emerging areas. He avoids those risks.
Company's done nothing wrong, excellent balance sheet. Hard-pressed to find an oil company stock chart that's up while oil is down. Still believes in the great strides it's making. Yield is ~7%, fully defendable down to ~$53/barrel. Total return will be fine, even if oil price is not doing too well.
Harks back to his view that total return is important. Natural gas is up ~50% from a year ago. With LNG Canada coming on, anticipates nat gas prices improving materially through the end of the year. Business fundamentals are best in class. CEO has been buying shares. Not a lot of flash, but they know what they're doing and keep growing earnings per share.
Income derived from royalties plus 50% ownership of a mine that's run by RIO, a world-class operator. Difficult Q1; guiding that things will be made up over next 3 quarters, so full-year forecast remains. Dividend is attractive. Issue is trying to make this mine consistent, and a lot of capital's been spent. Market hates inconsistency.
Uranium stocks had a fantastic run. Not at a 12-month low but, fundamentally speaking, you have utilities that aren't properly covered in terms of their needs. Supply issues. Not many are starting new mines, as they wait for prices to get back to $100/pound. It takes time to start new mines. Buy it now, knowing of the fundamental global energy trend in place. Modular reactors will become reality over the next 10 years.
Spot market is what people look at every single day, and that's where you see the gyrations in uranium prices. Right now, ~$65/pound. Term market is where most of the long-term contracting gets done, such as by utilities; and that one's been fairly steady.
