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Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva

COMMENT
Today's 1% BOC rate hike. BOC wants to take an aggressive approach to get ahead of this inflation scourge. Sets the table for the Fed to consider 100 bps, especially given the 9.1% CPI print, though they don't usually pay that much attention to the BOC. 75 bps is cemented for the Fed's next hike.
Unknown

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COMMENT
BOC wants to "front-load" rate hikes. The 100 bps move signals that this is what they're doing. How do they, and all central banks, wrestle inflation without driving too much of a stake into the growth story and choking things off for an extended time? His firm expects a shallow, short recession. It's a balancing act.
Unknown
WEAK BUY
Strong management. Aggressive growth. How much excess capital can they return to shareholders as well as deleverage? Focus is on building up the asset base, going from 11K to 22K barrels a day by 2024. Good free cashflow, but much of it's probably earmarked for buying land and M&A.
oil / gas
WAIT
Great asset in Newfoundland & Labrador. Unlikely to be a target of M&A. In "sleepy" mode, so there's elevated execution risk. Costs are higher than he likes, but still profitable at today's gold prices.
Mining
BUY
Good name. Nice dividend, anticipates it will grow. Good job integrating Husky. They can enjoy the fruits of their labour with higher oil prices that give them more free cashflow, higher ROC to shareholders, and faster debt repayment. Adding Asian gas component was timely.
oil / gas
BUY
Will grow aggressively. Shifting from M&A to more organic growth. Targeting 50% of free cashflow of around 20% to go to shareholders, a very healthy buyback. Yield around 3%.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Sadly, 5th fatality since 2021. Needs to be a real change in culture to improve safety, which is creating a disconnect from what underlying commodities are doing. Shareholder activism has produced good returns. Near-term challenges.
integrated oils
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 06/21, Up 16%) Unique hybrid of royalties and infrastructure. Good exposure to some of the best plays in Canada. Wants to increase infrastructure for balance. Core holding. Yield is just over 5%, sees continuing growth in the dividend.
0
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 06/21, Down 49%) Tale of the gold space. Nothing specific with the asset. Still high quality. Resource update by end of 2022 will give investors more clarity, especially given the impact of inflation.
Mining
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 06/21, Down 71%) Acquisition of Utah mine. Raised capital to fund the BC mine build. Economic update on Caribou mine doubled capex, and this further soured the market.
Mining
HOLD
Just completed an expansion. A bit more debt leveraged. Fortunes rise and fall with copper, especially with a recession scenario. China's problems aren't helping. Should be back to $3 in next 3-6 months, $4 in a year. Operational issues in Q1. Second half should improve. Sit tight. You could dip your toe in Q4.
Mining
SELL
Higher costs thwarted profitability. Move on.
Mining
BUY
Well run. Their theme is acquire land, develop it, drill it as efficiently as possible to bring up cashflow to realize NAV, sell it when it's de-risked. Management owns about 20% of it. Continues to like it, especially if you want a Canadian gas name.
oil / gas
BUY
Cleaned up balance sheet. More focused than before. Goal is to return 50% of cashflow to shareholders. Free cashflow yield north of 20%. A good name. Nice dividend around 3.8%, which may increase.
oil / gas
BUY
Shown good discipline managing supply into the market. Good proxy for uranium, which looks good going forward. Future will be more modular, smaller scale and capex. Yield around only 0.5%, which he could see growing over time.
integrated mines
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