Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva - Stockchase Experts
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Dennis da Silva @

On Stockchase since : Apr 2007

Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager at Middlefield Capital Ltd.

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Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 9, 2019

Market Outlook Q4 was the worst for the resource sector since 2008. It is now setting us up for a good 2019. WCS differentials are likely unsustainable at these tight levels around $9. He expects the WCS discount to be $20-$25 US/bbl and light barrels to be discounted by $10-$15 US/bbl range. About 325,000 barrels per day is curtailed as part of the Alberta government policy -- about what the market is long in Canada right now. Then when Enbridge Line 3 comes on around later in the year it will also be supportive. The US dollar has come of its peaks and he thinks this will help gold prices -- he thinks gold will get to $1350 US/oz. This will be good for gold stocks in 2019.
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Market Outlook Q4 was the worst for the resource sector since 2008. It is now setting us up for a good 2019. WCS differentials are likely unsustainable at these tight levels around $9. He expects the WCS discount to be $20-$25 US/bbl and light barrels to be discounted by $10-$15 US/bbl range. About 325,000 barrels per day is curtailed as part of the Alberta government policy -- about what the market is long in Canada right now. Then when Enbridge Line 3 comes on around later in the year it will also be supportive. The US dollar has come of its peaks and he thinks this will help gold prices -- he thinks gold will get to $1350 US/oz. This will be good for gold stocks in 2019.
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY
Their plans for an Alaskan mine development saw some life in November when the new Governor there showed he was more pro-development. Unfortunately the cost to develop in this region is so great and one of the partners dropped out last year. How do you finance it, especially when environmentalists are against it?
precious metals
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Their plans for an Alaskan mine development saw some life in November when the new Governor there showed he was more pro-development. Unfortunately the cost to develop in this region is so great and one of the partners dropped out last year. How do you finance it, especially when environmentalists are against it?
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.870
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

January 9, 2019

A BC station 2 gas producer -- right at the further point from markets. He is focusing on condensate rich producers instead that see prices linked more to oil prices. AECO prices yesterday were $1.13 /GJ.
oil/gas
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A BC station 2 gas producer -- right at the further point from markets. He is focusing on condensate rich producers instead that see prices linked more to oil prices. AECO prices yesterday were $1.13 /GJ.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.430
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
The only one he likes in this sector is Secure Energy Services. Companies are trying to figure out their activity levels and this will determine how equipment will move between Canada and the US. This is one he would not be buying right now.
oil/gas
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The only one he likes in this sector is Secure Energy Services. Companies are trying to figure out their activity levels and this will determine how equipment will move between Canada and the US. This is one he would not be buying right now.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.240
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Hudbay Minerals Inc.(HBM-T) 

January 9, 2019

Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
precious metals
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Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$6.880
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
precious metals
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Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$30.210
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Tahoe Resources(THO-T) 

January 9, 2019

They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
Mining
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They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.070
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Pan American Silver(PAAS-T) 

January 9, 2019

They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
precious metals
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They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$20.400
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Yamana Gold Inc.(YRI-T) 

January 9, 2019

The company has wrestled with getting all their assets humming. He sees other operators that are more consistent. He would rather pay more for a consistent management team. He feels they are stuck in the mud.
precious metals
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The company has wrestled with getting all their assets humming. He sees other operators that are more consistent. He would rather pay more for a consistent management team. He feels they are stuck in the mud.
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$3.280
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
New Gold Inc.(NGD-T) 

January 9, 2019

A company that has struggled with large mines that take so long to get going. Rainy River has been their Achilles heel. They put out a good update, but one quarter does not make the mine. He wants to see several quarters of success. Patience is needed, but there is still significant risk for this project.
precious metals
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A company that has struggled with large mines that take so long to get going. Rainy River has been their Achilles heel. They put out a good update, but one quarter does not make the mine. He wants to see several quarters of success. Patience is needed, but there is still significant risk for this project.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.610
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Atlantic Gold Corp(AGB-X) 

January 9, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 7%) Compared to the gold space in general the result is not disappointing. A small starter, low cost mine in Nova Scotia that he expects may eventually become an acquisition target. He wants to see them develop the project carefully. He will continue to hold it.
precious metals
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(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 7%) Compared to the gold space in general the result is not disappointing. A small starter, low cost mine in Nova Scotia that he expects may eventually become an acquisition target. He wants to see them develop the project carefully. He will continue to hold it.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.750
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Cardinal Energy Ltd(CJ-T) 

January 9, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 40%) Up to Q4 it was looking pretty good, but with differentials widening it got hammered. The stock price has not responded well since the differentials have tightened. He likes their low decline rate. They shut-in about 15% of their production. They did the prudent thing by cutting the dividend. He continues to hold it. Yield 5%.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 40%) Up to Q4 it was looking pretty good, but with differentials widening it got hammered. The stock price has not responded well since the differentials have tightened. He likes their low decline rate. They shut-in about 15% of their production. They did the prudent thing by cutting the dividend. He continues to hold it. Yield 5%.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$2.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Tourmaline Oil Corp(TOU-T) 

January 9, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 8%) One of the biggest gas producers in Canada. He is surprised it has been as stable as it has. It has done a good job with hedging and market diversification. Still a core holding.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 8%) One of the biggest gas producers in Canada. He is surprised it has been as stable as it has. It has done a good job with hedging and market diversification. Still a core holding.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$17.870
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

January 9, 2019

A premiere holding in the Canadian energy space and a core holding. They are now over the big capex spend for the Fort Hills project and now should benefit from free cash-flow for the next few years. He likes where they are positioned. They are more expensive than others and he likes the growing dividend. You buy this and tuck it away.
integrated oils
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A premiere holding in the Canadian energy space and a core holding. They are now over the big capex spend for the Fort Hills project and now should benefit from free cash-flow for the next few years. He likes where they are positioned. They are more expensive than others and he likes the growing dividend. You buy this and tuck it away.
integrated oils
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$40.560
Owned Owned
Yes

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WAIT
Goldcorp Inc(G-T) 

January 9, 2019

The success of the 20/20/20 goals on cost reductions and production and cash flow growth will be the real test. They are trying to increase transparency of their strategy, now can they prove up on the execution? He would rather pay a little more for more consistency.
precious metals
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The success of the 20/20/20 goals on cost reductions and production and cash flow growth will be the real test. They are trying to increase transparency of their strategy, now can they prove up on the execution? He would rather pay a little more for more consistency.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$12.880
Owned Owned
No

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