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Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva

COMMENT
We're at a point in the road where the easy money has been made--reopening in China and America who have driven commodities hard. Investors are now taking a breather to determine how sustainable oil prices (and other commodities) will be going forward. Meanwhile, the US 10-year yield (now 1.37%) has paused the gold trade--June was its worst month in 4 years. May saw the worst inflation rise in years, and the U.S. Fed increased 2021 expectations from 2.5% to 3%. It will come down to how "transitory" inflation will be, and will get priced into gold the longer it stays sticky, especially going into 2022.
Unknown
COMMENT

It gives you leverage to WTI oil. About 25% of their production is heavy oil. Like many oil companies in 2021-22, BTE is reducing debt as we caught in 2020 with too much debt. What hinders their upside is that they've hedged a lot of their production--50% of it is capped at US$52 per barrel. BTE still falls in the top 20% of beta to WTI upside, but not as much as a heavy oil producer like Meg Energy. Could oil stocks return to highs 4 years ago? Anything is possible, he supposes, but he doesn't think the market will go to highs until investors see more stability or concrete outlook in the oil market in the next 12-24 months.

oil / gas
BUY
The biggest independent zinc producer has had its ups and downs. The new CEO has to navigate 2020, which was tough. Zinc prices have jumped to US$1.25/lb. TV's cost structure is based on $1.10-1.15. TV trades at a deep discount. Zinc doesn't capture the imagination like copper or nickel, though. Zinc prices have benefited from the rebounded in car production and other industrial activity. He has owned this in the past. A good company for pure zinc exposure.
Mining
BUY
Highly leveraged to the copper price, and is a major producer. Has a great outlook. They are reducing costs to improve efficiency. Debt is an issue, but the high copper price solves this and enhances margins. It's up 500% in the past year. Too much beta for him though, but this is fine if you can handle this beta. The space is discounting $3 copper, so there's upside.
Mining
BUY
Well managed by a seasoned CEO who is promoting their Crawford project as a carbon-neutral one. (ESG is a major force in investing now.) There are question marks about valuation, a lot for a company still finalizing its ultimate size. Not sure if it can achieve all its ESG targets, but he likes he CEO. Their initiatives are probably aiming for a bigger company to take it out.
Mining
DON'T BUY

They have option agreements with major partner Rio Tinto, but these have been under dispute for the past year. It's worth tens of millions of dollars. The stock has fallen because of this battle; investors have lost patience. He owned this before the legal battle and didn't want to wait for it to be sorted out.

precious metals
BUY

A core intermediate gold producer. They own the largest Canadian gold mine and have a reputation for running high-grade mines like Fosterville in Australia. Their Detour acquisition was meant to stabilize their production base. He believes in management. It's about generating strong free cash flow to fund their new shaft, the Macassa Mine, which is on schedule and offsetting production loss from Fosterville through 2023. KL produces 1.4 million ounces per year. It has a solid balance sheet, but is getting over near-term issues from owning the largest Canadian mine. His go-to company in gold.

precious metals
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 03/20, Down 6%) Operate a Quebec mine which coming along, and produces 6 million high-grade ounces underground. They're targeting September for their resource update, and the feasibility study in 2022. The right people are in place. He thinks there's more exploration to come in this mine. He used to own this through a fund and wants to get back into it.
Mining
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 03/20, Up 14%) Are developing gold in Nunavut in a fully-permitted, high-grade, open-pit project. The knock is that it's in a northern frontier which means higher costs to fly in and out supplies, and it's less easy to work up north. He's owned this stock for years and is confident with them. He expects construction to start in 2022.
precious metals
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 03/20, Down 28%) It operates in Quebec called Fenelon. The resource is there and they are very well-finance (Eric Sprott owns over 20%). Also, Kirkland Lake's CEO sits on the board and owns shares. Perhaps, the market is impatient, which has pressured shares, but WM is careful in moving forward.

metal mines
STRONG BUY

Like Cenovus and Arc, they had a busy 2020. WCP became the largest intermediate oil producer in western Canada. They're using carbon capture at their Weyburn unit and they may apply that clean tech to other facilities, maybe to generate revenue. It trades at a premium, because it's so well-run, low-cost, solid balance sheet with tremendous cash flow. They are aggressively reducing debt. Last year, they bought TORC Oil, a perfect merger in terms of balance sheet and assets. Buying NAL Resources was also strategic long-term. WCP is a top-tier oil producer. Boasts a strong balance sheet, so he expects them to keep paying down debt with their strong cash flow. Expects more tuck-in acquisitions to be the biggest player in this space.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
DON'T BUY

Leverage was a past problem, not now. It's a smallcap. They have decommissioning (of oil wells) liabilities. They produce lower-quality barrels, not as good as, say, WCP. This never made the cut for him, and the smallcap is unattractive.

oil / gas
TOP PICK
A smallcap explorer/developer with an operation in Quebec. In Q3 2020, a preliminary assessment was done: 8 million ounces, with 250,000 ounces yearly for the first 14 years in an open pit, then will go underground for around 10 years to produce 100,000 ounces annually. It's like a mini-Detour Gold c.2009, which has since doubled its resource/mineral output. TLG trades at a 50% discount to peers, and will be an M&A candidate. Aggressive capital program, but there is an overhang from a $45 million equity issue that will last only a few months. (Analysts’ price target is $3.71)
Mining
TOP PICK

It's a unique royalty infrastructure company. It's heavily tied to some of the most aggressive top-tier plays through Tourmaline or Tamarack among others. A top play for steady growth and income in the energy space (Analysts’ price target is $19.71)

0
BUY

A core way of playing oil and gas in the intermediate space. Arc and Tourmaline are interchangeable. It's the biggest player in the Montney. Always well-regarded, under-promises and over-delivers. Last year saw the big Seven Generations deal. This trades in line with peers, though should be at a premium given the quality of its land base and strong track record of results. Balance sheet and management are also tops. He will never sell this. Decline rates have improved.

oil / gas
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