Dennis da Silva
Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager at Middlefield Capital Ltd.
Member since: Apr '07 · 1040 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
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Win
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Neutral
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Loss
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Big Loss
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6 | 61 29.05% | 34 16.19% | 17 8.10% | 46 21.90% | 52 24.76% | ||
| 1 Month | 2.3 | 10 20.00% | 11 22.00% | 6 12.00% | 20 40.00% | 3 6.00% | |
| 6 Months | 3.59 | 16 33.33% | 7 14.58% | 8 16.67% | 9 18.75% | 8 16.67% | |
| 12 Months | 2.3 | 14 29.17% | 8 16.67% | 3 6.25% | 8 16.67% | 15 31.25% | |
| 2 Years | 2.22 | 11 27.50% | 4 10.00% | 0 0.00% | 6 15.00% | 19 47.50% | |
| 5 Years | 0 | 10 41.67% | 4 16.67% | 0 0.00% | 3 12.50% | 7 29.17% |
Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva
Several decades since we've seen this. Gold has played a major role in shifts in reserve currencies. Investors are looking more closely at gold, and at gold equities, as an investment alternative.
Gold has doubled over the last 3 years. Up 47-48% YTD. Things really kicked off when Russia invaded Ukraine, and sovereign countries realized that no assets are safe. So it's been a steady move, with significant velocity picking up in 2025. There's been increased geopolitical uncertainty this year with Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as around the Federal Reserve and Trump trying to assert his influence.
There's also diminishing comfort around the US dollar, retail demand for ETFs, and insatiable Chinese retail demand. Gold bullion and gold ETFs have become easier to own in China.
Velocity and momentum in gold should continue.
Highest beta to oil price, as it's the least vertically integrated of the seniors. Top-notch management. Very strong FCF. Solid balance sheet. Great yield. Chart's flat over last year, much due to lack of differentiating catalysts (unlike SU or CVE). Low oil price has impacted ability to hit internal debt targets or increase share buybacks.
Very high dividend yield, just under 9%. Gamechanger will be the development of the SAGD program, which will add to its existing base and probably more than double FCF. Cash can be used to de-lever and build the next project. SAGD is modular, so they can add more once first one is successful. Highly leveraged to oil prices, a higher-cost producer.
Likes the scalability. Probably late 2026 for all pieces to come together.
Only Canadian, pure-play, frack services provider. Leans toward the gas side. Leveraged to increases in Canadian drilling, which drives margins. Next-generation, low-emission fleets attracts a certain type of (large) customer. Key beneficiary of LNG Canada ramping up.
Nice, disciplined approach. Lower capex needs. Very strong FCF. Trading below historic norm. Should benefit from stronger gas prices.
In the top 10 for copper and gold. Represents ~4% of global copper supply. Mudslide caused fatalities, mine shut down, estimated to not return to prior levels until 2027. Tightens up an already-tight market. About 35% of production comes from US, so uniquely positioned for Trump's "Made in America".
He prefers TECK and CS, for more leverage to copper.
New mine took longer and cost more, so it's underperformed the group (trading ~20-30% discount, and should re-rate). It'll be quite an important project once it gets up to full steam in 2027. Adds nice geographical diversification. Significant FCF should result. Yield is just over 1.5%.
On his radar. Will probably add once he sees the steady state after Goose mine ramps up.
Unfortunate flooding and suspension of one of its premier mines in DRC. Still trying to assess infrastructure damage. Guesses it won't be back until late 2026. Inflection in FCF could be pushed beyond then. Investment and vote of confidence from Qatar Investment Authority.
In limbo. Highlights scarcity of world-class mines, seeing M&A, could be a takeout.
Very impressive turnaround under new management team. They're about 1.5 years through their 3-year plan, and ahead of schedule. Exceeded every target set. Deep cultural change is important to highlight. Breakeven (including dividend) has moved into the range of mid-$40 US a barrel.
Returning 100% of FCF to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Well-integrated, solid model insulates it from low oil price.
Probably the favourite among all his energy children. Unique, hybrid model of royalty (~75% of revenue) and infrastructure. Around 70% exposure to gas. His view is that gas will strengthen in 2026 and for a couple of years after that. Nice income stream from organic operations and M&A. Very clean balance sheet. One of the best operators in Canadian oil patch.
Aim is to have more of dividend supported by the infrastructure side, as it's even steadier than royalties. At midpoint of payout ratio of 60-80% of FCF. Growth, lower volatility. Nice yield of ~5%.
Heavy oil producer. Strathcona put in a hostile bid -- liquidity is an issue, assets are not as high quality as either MEG or CVE. Board has recommended the CVE offer, even though on paper it's a lower bid. CVE offer would provide better synergies.
He sold MEG on limited upside, and happy to keep holding CVE.
