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Stock Opinions by Brooke Thackray

COMMENT
It's May. Time to go away? Market's still moving up. Part of the strategy is to move into defensive sectors. In March, the utility sector gained over 10% and consumer staples outperformed as well. That shows that investors are concerned. Lots of rotation going on. Over the next 6 months we probably won't see the runup of the last 6 months. Market's starting to get a little jittery.
Unknown
COMMENT
Commodity trend and reflation trade overdone? Yes. Tech has suffered since last August, as investors have moved into the reflation trade. But interest rates have moved down again. Investors are still trying to find their footing. Cyclicals underperformed in April. Now money is piling back in, but he's not sure it's going to last, especially if interest rates start to roll over, which is what they typically do seasonally this time of year.
Unknown
COMMENT
Historically, a weak season from May-October. Yes, over the long term. It was different last year, due to unprecedented stimulus and much faster economic growth than expected. Stimulus probably won't be ratcheted up again. Investors have moved out of tech and into defensives. The weaker season should start shortly.
Unknown
BUY
A preferable sector at this time. Strong earnings reported. Covid injection revenue expected to go down, but they're still expecting positive forward momentum. Well positioned. Has had a spike, but room to go higher at least into August.
specialty stores
WAIT

T vs. BCE He'd go with BCE if he had to choose. Telus is more wireless based. BCE also includes media aspects. BCE is a more conservative play, with a dividend of just over 6%. Telus' dividend is just under 5%. When interest rates move down, BCE tends to do better. When interest rates move up, Telus tends to do better. With interest rates tending to moderate this time of year, and markets being a bit softer, he'd go with BCE.

telephone utilities
BUY

BCE vs. T He'd go with BCE if he had to choose. Telus is more wireless based. BCE also includes media aspects. BCE is a more conservative play, with a dividend of just over 6%. Telus' dividend is just under 5%. When interest rates move down, BCE tends to do better. When interest rates move up, Telus tends to do better. With interest rates tending to moderate this time of year, and markets being a bit softer, he'd go with BCE.

telephone utilities
BUY
Performing well recently. It responds well when grains go up in price. Seasonality starts around June 23 and can go till October. Sweet spot is from late September to October. If the market moves higher, NTR can do quite well here.
agriculture
WAIT
Making a nice move here. Seasonality starts late May. Just because it's run up, doesn't mean you can't do the trade. Costco is in the right place, right time. He'd wait a bit closer to May 26 to step in.
department stores
COMMENT
If a stock's run up before its seasonality, can I still do the trade? The ideal setup seasonally is when there's a sharp correction before the seasonal period starts. Just because it's run up, doesn't mean you can't do the trade. But typically, it doesn't have the same conviction rate. He'd wait a bit closer to actual seasonality before stepping in.
Unknown
COMMENT
Dividend plays and interest rates. It's the direction of the interest rate movement that really counts. If interest rates are moving up on a sustained basis, the dividend players usually underperform the market. Bonds represent a better relative deal. But also under those conditions, dividend growers tend to outperform those that have a flat dividend. Right now, dividend payers are a good place to be instead of the growth sector.
Unknown
COMMENT
Interest rates for 2021. Market narrative is that rates are heading higher. But bond investors aren't buying it. The bond market is much bigger than the stock market. The 10 year has pulled back. From a seasonal basis, interest rates tend to moderate now. So he sees rates staying flat or going lower over the next 6 months going into October. Interest rates will rise after that as the economy reboots itself.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
Copper has been on fire. Copper tends to soften this time of year, and so will this stock as a result. Seasonality in gold might start to kick in next month. He wouldn't be jumping in.
non-base metal mining
COMMENT
Commodities coming under pressure. The trade has been overdone. Look at lumber. The price has doubled since mid-March, but has demand also doubled since mid-March? Lots of speculation taking place, including in copper. The reflationary trade says we need more copper, but the trade is overdone. Commodities like lumber and copper will pull back.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
Market didn't like its earnings, and so it's down today. Stumbling. Right sector, but not producing results fast enough for investors. Took on huge debt to expand. Sometimes it's better not to buy a company at the beginning of huge capex. Stay away right now.
food processing
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 01/21, Up 8%) Solid stock. Not getting a lot of respect. Underperforming the TSX and the energy group. Paying down debt, buying back shares, driving down costs of production. He's not looking at energy, as it's just finishing seasonality. But if you really want to be in energy, this is one to look at.
integrated oils
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