Research Analyst at Horizons ETFs (Canada) Inc.
Member since: Oct '07 · 1371 Opinions
Last time he got into power, he cut regulations and lowered taxes. That was all stimulative to the market. Could be different this time, as this time he's going to be doing a lot of cost-cutting. That will have a negative impact on the economy.
A lot of people don't realize the lags that take place, and we don't know how fast these things are going to happen. His guess is that cost-cutting will come right up front because the current administration has been hiring a lot of employees. The cuts will start to weigh on the economy, though some say it will be better in the long run.
There's a lot of back and forth, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
Yes, but to get there it will require some lumps. If we see freezing in government hiring and spending, in the short term those things will be deflationary, putting downward pressure on the economy. People aren't expecting this. Longer term, it's a good thing because it allows the economy to be more productive. He's optimistic that things will work out long term.
Yes. They are rich here at this level, so he doesn't see huge gains. 2023 saw an over 20% gain in the S&P 500, and here we are again. Doubts that we can do it again. Sees the market being positive, but there's going to be a whole lot of moving around based on the narrative surrounding Trump. It'll be sometimes positive, sometimes negative.
Semiconductors have pulled back since 1H. This name's done OK, but not the huge outperformance it had before. Technicals still show an upward trend, which is positive. Unless it breaks the trend, it's positive; look for that before you take action. Watch $130 level, as that's where the trend would be broken.
If the market rallies, NVDA will participate as well. So he's positive in the short term.
Earnings disappointed today, withdrawing some guidance. Not looking good from a fundamental perspective. He thinks they're just getting rid of all the bad stuff at this point, a clean sweep for the new CEO.
Technically, pulled back to the bottom of the range of support, looks like it will hold. Could have a few days of really negative performance. Once things settle down, it will meander around here a bit. Eventually, the negative news will wear off.
Commodity index hasn't done well either, and NTR is somewhat correlated with that. Unperformed, but now forming a base. Not seeing a strong impetus for stock to increase. Commodities are taking a backseat to tech and growth.
Longer term, will be a fantastic play as fertilizer demand grows. But not now.