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Stock Opinions by Brooke Thackray

COMMENT
Canada's Q2 GDP numbers of 3.3% vs. expectation of 4.4%. Canada's numbers tend to be more lumpy than US numbers. So far growth has been fairly strong, as well as employment. Starting to see more and more evidence that the economy is slowing in Canada and the US. US has been talking about job openings, but that's a lagging indicator. A number of surveys in the US are showing contraction. PMI tomorrow is expected to come in around 52, and below 50 means that we're in a contraction. Time to be cautious in the markets and perhaps lean more towards some of the boring sectors.
Unknown

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COMMENT
Will BOC still raise by 0.75% in September? He thinks so. Central bankers have lost a lot of credibility, and they can't start backing off from what they're doing. They need more evidence to say the economy is substantially slowing, and one GDP number isn't enough for that.
Unknown
COMMENT
Headwinds for the fall. Weak seasonals at this time of year. Since 1950, September has been the weakest month of the year. Doesn't mean that the market will be negative, but it's a tough backdrop for the market to overcome. Combined with the economic data, it's a time to be cautious. He wants to be optimistic as well. The markets could struggle for the next month or two, but could do very well in the back half of this quarter. Opportunity to be into the cyclical sectors a bit later on, but not just yet, perhaps the end of October. Wait for a month or two for an opportunity to get into the market.
Unknown
COMMENT
Canadian vs. US banks. Canada's an oligopoly structure. Canadian banks pay out a lot more of their cashflow, so you get a higher dividend, and this makes them more defensive when the market turns down. Composition is different as well. US banks tend to be attractive when the market's really rallying, and when interest rates are moving up. When interest rates move up, US banks outperform Canadian banks. Right now, the Canadian banks are suffering a bit, but he'd be leaning towards them.
Unknown
WAIT
Loves the energy sector, but it's coming into the weakest time of year and starting to see volatility. Economy slowing down will impact the sector more than supply constraints. Hold off until January or February when the sector tends to take off.
oil / gas
WAIT
Good entry point? Great company, well balanced. Done extremely well, up by over 30% in a month and a half. Look at JJG, as it's correlated to fertilizer stocks. Overbought, don't chase. Fertilizer tends to kick in late September. Better opportunity in a month or so.
agriculture
DON'T BUY
If gold continues lower, we could see a bit more weakness, but he doesn't think this one's going to zero. You'd have to look at its cost of production. If the USD comes off, gold could go up a bit, but he wouldn't be stepping into gold right now.
Mining
COMMENT
Gold. Overall, gold stocks have taken a beating. Gold usually performs well this time of year, and it just hasn't. Hurt by rising interest rates and stronger USD. When the market's going down and gold is going down, gold stocks tend to go down even more. If the USD comes off, gold could go up a bit, but he wouldn't be stepping into gold right now. He has a 1% position in GDX. September tends to be strong for gold, but we haven't seen it yet. The next seasonal opportunity would be in December.
Unknown
BUY
Decent product, and not such a bad idea at this time. If you expect the banks to go up a lot, just buy the banks or an ETF without the covered call. Banks tend to show seasonal strength in mid-October. This is a safer way to play the banks, as they're facing headwinds, but will do OK.
E.T.F.'s
WEAK BUY
Boring company, but outperformed the market this year. Decent yield, not high growth. Decent player over time. He'd prefer pure utility stocks, like CU. OK at this time.
mngmnt / diversified
COMMENT
Energy seasonality. Difficult to tell what's going to happen with energy prices with the Russia-Ukraine war. Don't take a position in energy based just on that. The first seasonal period is Feb 25 (sometimes starts in January) to May (though it could go longer). The second is July 27 - late September/early October, and this one isn't as strong as the other. October/November tends to be very weak. Be very careful. Nat gas tends to well from September to mid-December.
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 21/22, Up 8%) Energy sector is not favourable at this time. Longer term, it will do well. Right now, wait for a better opportunity, perhaps late, late December/early January or in February.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 21/22, Down 11%) Very cyclical. Not a good sector seasonally right now, plus we have the slowing economy. Does well late October until early May. Perhaps wait until we see some sort of bottom in the market, when cyclicals tend to do better.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 21/22, Down 8%) Top holding is AMT. Another big one is PSA. So its offerings are more specialties, which we don't have in Canada. Seasonality is March to September.
0
COMMENT
Seasonal investing. Seasonal investing is a long-term discipline. You're asking when do certain sectors do well in the year, and you rotate into those sectors. It doesn't work all the time for every sector, but for most of the sectors it provides extra value long term. Just because the seasonality is from A to B, it doesn't mean you have to be in there. If the technicals and momentum aren't holding up, you exit.
Unknown
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