
Research Analyst at Horizons ETFs (Canada) Inc.
Member since: Oct '07 · 1400 Opinions
There will be more of this type of setup to come. We need nuclear. In order to kickstart it, this is exactly what they're doing. He has no concerns at all with the US government partnering with Canadian companies. There's sometimes a little bit of animosity on Canada's side. But we share technology on uranium anyway, so that's not a big deal for national security. It's a great idea.
Will be interesting to see if we can leverage off of what they're doing down there. If we're getting serious about nuclear providing power, the only problem with nuclear is that it can take a long time to greenfield (up to 15 years) -- especially in Canada, as the process is so slow.
If you can start to build these units and standardize them, as they're starting to do, then we can piggyback and work with the US. This will also be good for Canada.
Oil is usually a bit weaker at this time coming into the shoulder season. February to May is a much stronger seasonal period as we ramp up for the driving season. Sometimes it can start earlier, so it might start in December this year. But it generally tends to be weaker right about now.
That really goes back to natural gas. Nat gas has to fill in during the short term, and there's no way around that. Nuclear can then be there for the longer term, but nat gas will fill the gap for the next 10 years. We've seen it with PPL and META signing a deal just outside Edmonton. We'll see more of those setups as well.
AI is a demand for that whole cycle. We're coming into the colder season, and investors want to front-run that so they tend to move into natural gas positions ahead of that colder season. This move tends to drive up the price of both nat gas and nat gas stocks.
One reason that healthcare and other defensive sectors have been beaten down is because everybody's chasing tech. There's also a lot of policy uncertainty with the new US administration. Also pipeline concerns about drugs reaching the end of their patents over the next couple of years.
The sector's recently looked attractive from a value perspective. Starting to see hedge funds get into the sector itself, seeing a bit of a bounce. Could see the sector do well.
An "enhanced" ETF, so it writes covered calls to provide income in a portfolio. So it's in a defensive sector with a defensive approach. Nothing wrong with that as part of a portfolio. Covered calls work best with a bit of volatility so that they provide enough of a premium, which might be a bit difficult with healthcare.
Chart shows a trading range over last couple of years. Price is coming up to $19.50 or $20, and he'd expect it to come back into its trading range. Healthcare can actually do well in November. Bodes quite well at this time.
Company expects to lay off a lot more people in future. Not necessarily a sign that the company isn't doing well, just mean they're becoming more efficient. Some companies are able to use AI efficiently at this point, and AMZN is one of them. You want to invest in those participants.
Overall it's lagged, which is a bit of a concern. Discretionary side of the market has lagged as well. Chart shows it's broken upward trend, and you want to see it break above $240 or so (on rising volume, would be a strong sign). Expects a bit more weakness, so he'd wait. Weaker consumer demand, especially in bottom 4/5 of income earners, but economy is still strong.
Agriculture sector tends to do well this time of year because cashflows in the sector tend to boost stocks. Has a lot to do with the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere as well. Stock hasn't benefited yet, as tech is sucking a lot of oxygen out of the markets.
Downward trend has been broken, starting to form a base. Positive sign. Just looking for catalyst to move higher. More likely to move higher than lower. Won't run away, but decent technical profile. Good buy at this level of $80.
All these companies are investing in each other, which creates a circular relationship. Sometimes he thinks it might be a symptom of so much money, they don't know what to do with it. Capex is huge, $400B last year for the Mag 7 alone. These aren't straight-up, third-party, objective transactions. You can't really tell what's happening behind the scenes.
With all its assorted companies, how does it leverage AI in a functional way? Software overall has been hit by this. From technical perspective, we've seen a breakdown. Little bounce recently, but still in a downward trend. Good support around $3600, and we're around there now. If it breaks below that, it's in trouble.
Take-or-pay structure, totally different from the exploration side. Seasonality can actually start before the energy sector. So if you want to get into energy, not a bad time to look at the pipes. Right now, stay away from the major oil companies, and look to the pipelines.
Sector's done extremely well, despite a small blip in August. It's basically sucking the air out of everything else right now. 'Tis the season when technology does quite well. Still momentum here. Earnings should be interesting; once we get past that without any surprises (which he's not expecting), thinks tech will continue to do well.
Gold's done extremely well this year. It's been moving in a pattern of consolidation, rally, consolidation, rally. Strong rally into September/October, and now a pullback. Probably consolidating. Strong seasonality for gold just ended, so he sold. Below $25 would be a breakdown. Next seasonal period is December, so he'll look at it again then.