Brooke Thackray

Investors have grown numb to the Russia-Ukraine war... We've seen a strong start to the year, including small caps. However, the last third of January is usually weaker than the rest of the month, when earnings happen. Investors were piling in in recent days before earnings, but we haven't seen consecutive days of increases which is a worry.

It's fallen a lot in the past year. He viewed it as a car company, but others saw it as a tech company, hence the disparity in valuation. They report tomorrow. He doesn't believe that their price cuts will increase sales volumes. Shares will probably rise 8-9% tomorrow on earnings. Remains volatile. Not a fan. Shares needs to come back to the valuations of other car companies. Tesla shares are back to late 2020 levels; watch for share breaking below this level at that level. Tomorrow, it could enjoy a little rally. He expects it to underperform if the market turns south.

Late-December to mid-February is gold seasonality. Kinross has corrected with the sector, but it can do well. Let it run and see if it performs well. If not, then exit.

Is driven by natural gas prices. TOU paid a special dividend. A good company. Nat gas performs September into December, but is weak from mid-December to mid-March. Shares are at a support level, which is good. It could rally a little earlier than seasonality. Wait and watch the spot price into February and especially in mid March. There's oversupply of nat gas now.

It's the time for industrials, from late January into early May. TIH could do well in February. The chart shows higher lows, which is good.

He hasn't done seasonal analysis on lithium, but it will follow the metals sector and that is now doing well, from January into May. Lithium bounced up in February 2022, but has flatlined since then. Lithium is the key ingredient for car batteries and that is undersupplied. SQM shares have built a base, which is a strong set up for seasonality. Is poised to do well.

Now into late April is CNR's seasonality, as in 2022. The chart shows an ascending triangle in the past year, which is bullish. Could see a breakout.

(A Top Pick Aug 31/22, Up 1%) Defensives performed well when he recommended it last August and outperformed in 2022. We saw a rotation out of tech into staples, but now there's a downtrend for staples. Staples were great last year, but not now. Investors want high-beta cyclicals and technology. Return to staples in April.

(A Top Pick Aug 31/22, Up 7%) Half of its revenues come from the the U.S. Defence Dept. Now we're seeing a slight pullback. It's strong from now into April. Unfortunately, we're seeing rising defence budgets and military build-up around the world.

(A Top Pick Aug 31/22, Down 10%) All utilities have pulled back since mid-2022. Emera has exposure to Florida, which suffered outages due to strong weather. Don't hold this now. Utilities are weak in the first months of a year.

Memberships make up a lot of their margins. The chart shows lower highs and lower lows since early 2022. March and April is very seasonal, but not now. No strong seasonal support now.

Flights have bounced back, though not business travel. Ticket prices are high, which favours all airlines. Competition may reduce prices a little later. Now into mid-April is seasonal. The chart shows a base around $16. The oil price isn't crazy, which is good. Warning: consumers are having trouble spending which debts and interest rates rising, and unemployment ticking up. Airlines aren't good stock long term because they need huge capital outlays and are volatile.

Fairly good, though not a fan of utilities which perform weakly in January and February. NPI is not as volatile, looking at the 2022 chart. Seasonality kicks in in March. Also, Europe is buying more renewable energy.

Healthcare is weak at the start of each year. Pfizer chart shows lower lows and lower highs. Doesn't see a strong seasonal pattern for Pfizer now. Things pick up in May/June for healthcare.

High-dividend ETFs carry many sectors. If you think interest rates will fizzle out and flatten in Canada, XEI could do well. XEI has support around $23. Don't expect a huge spike, but XEI will do well in such an environment.