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Stock Opinions by Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA

COMMENT

We're seeing emotional, knee-jerk reactions, "I need to get in. I need to get out." People should step back and look at their asset mix, what and why they're holding. If you're more than 5 years from retirement you're fine being all in stocks, can withstand volatility, which allows to take advantage of swings like this. If not, can't withstand it, you should hold some fixed income to give you safety. Being concentrated only in Canada, making up only 3% of global stocks, doesn't make sense. Diversify. We've seen 20% drops like now in 2018 and 2020 and 2022--the average intra-year drawdown over the last 75 years is 14%. Drawdowns are normal in markets, though this time it's self-inflicted (through tariffs). Before, dips allowed investors to get right away, but this time it depends on one person: Trump. Will this be V-shaped, or will it be prolonged, which will likely lead to a recession.

BUY

They sell ubiquitous goods, not luxury, but lower-priced. Pays under a 4% dividend and likely give you less volatility than the market. Is steady and  good to own.

BUY

They will spin off Ben & Jerry ice cream, less healthy good, and doubling down on soap, fragrances and personal care which offer bigger margins.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Tariffs on cars have pushed LFUS down lately, because they supply fuses for cars. Still likes it. Small caps will be volatile, but now is a buying opportunity with a small tranche, if you believe the car industry will come back. There are claims that Canada and Mexico dump car parts in the US, but 75% of car workers are American, so this is industry won't disappear. At some point there will be resolution in tariffs.

HOLD

If the US consumer struggles and can't buy goods and job losses rise due to tariffs, this will slow down the economy and directly impact banks like BAC. It's hard to know where tariffs are going. The dividend is high and BAC has a good, long track record. Best to collect the dividend and wait.

BUY
gold

Gold benefits from fears of inflation and central bank's concern over the USD. Since tariffs started, the price has been rocky with a slight decline. The problem isn't gold itself, but people owning gold maybe deleveraging across the board during this steep sell-off. If tariffs are long-term and therefore inflationary, gold prices will rise. He owns no gold. He buys dividend stocks. CME yields 2% + special dividends, which avoids exposure to the underlying commodity. Rather, CME takes a cut whenever there's a trade in commodities like gold, like now.

DON'T BUY

The country square in the bullseye of the US during the tariff war is China. Until there's resolution in tariffs, don't touch China. The future is unknown and could be negative. Both countries are at each other's throats.

DON'T BUY

Musk is a remarkable entrepreneur, but there's a lot of promotion involved. Right, particularly in the US, the people driving Teslas aren't happy, given DOGE and the White House. We see the backlash with protests. If Tesla survives 10 years, there will probably be a lot of revenue from self-driving cards, but Tesla has to get there. The brand has fallen out of favour. If things go badly in the White House, it would reflect more badly on the company, because Musk is so tied to the White House.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 22/24, Up 26%)

A quality Canadian name, allowing Canadian dollars to access global markets. Their challenge is that they invest in private businesses, then sell them at a higher price. But all the current volatility has put those plans on hold. Not the end of the world--BN will continue to run those businesses.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 22/24, Up 4%)

Flat, and flat is good in this market. This offer safety, being a utility in Florida where there's demand from people moving their for the tax rates. They also have a wind and solar with plans to add nuclear. There are rumblings that data centre demand for energy will weaken, but AI won't go away and will need power.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 22/24, Down 10%)

The Japanese owners of 7-11 have pushed back in this attempted take-over. It's really a global company, a consumer staple in convenience stores with habitual consumers. It's up in the air if the 7-11 deal will close, but if it does, ATD will be #3 in terms of brick-and-mortar sales in North America. A solid company.

BUY

A Canadian company exporting services around the world. Are not that effected by the tariffs directly. Shares are down because they work with companies where steel costs are rising, so these projects will be more expensive and compress their margins. If there is infrastructure spending around the world, WSP will definitely benefit. The 5-year chart is exceptional, fairly directionally up. He owns Stantec instead (more US and water exposure), but both companies are worth owning.

COMMENT

Ottawa for the past 10 years hasn't given much clarity about exploration; the whole industry has been wondering what they can and cannot do. However, in this election, all parties are talking about using our natural resources, refine them here, then export them abroad. We need clarity to buy a stock like this. The dividend is high because they CNQ can't grow, a sit and wait situation where they're dying a slow death. He hopes regulatory clarity comes later this year. CNQ is the biggest and best of the group.

PARTIAL BUY

Like Tesla, they need to get to self-driving cars and to be the first there. It's anyone's guess if they do. It's okay to hold a small amount, but not a lot.

DON'T BUY

The big banks face challenges, because the homes bought during Covid, when interest rates were rock-bottom, are and will pay much higher rates. TD is very tied to home mortgages, so be careful. Also, they're restricted from growing their business in the US for 4-5 years. He sold it, because the future didn't look great. He bought more Royal instead.

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