Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)

We don't know what's going to happen to potash production in Russia or Belarus. Don't know what the weather's going to be next year, or corn or soy prices. He doesn't want to buy something that depends on all those things.

The narrative of "you have to feed the world" is a great story. When he entered the business, there was a big call on Massey Ferguson. Massey went bankrupt. The story just doesn't work as a business.

Stays away when a fluctuating commodity price will impact earnings too much. Yet she owns this one. Half of its business is agricultural retail, which supports the dividend. This segment will increase with global population growth. 

Potash prices are stabilizing, without either positive or negative catalysts on the horizon. Not a bad entry point. Yield is 4.5%.

She sold it. Shares now are where they were when they merged. She misjudged the cyclicality of the fertilizer industry. Prices spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine, but farmers cut back spending on fertilizer because of the high price, so prices have collapsed. Also, BHP will produce a lot of potash in years to come.

Doesn't own, but watches. Recently beat on EPS. Concerning miss on Q2 revenue. Under pressure over last 3 years, despite rallies. Downward trend. Risk/reward just not there. Analysts see 24% upside, but she'd wait to see a turnaround.

Well diversified, but too volatile for her.

The simple answer is to own it when the price of corn's going up, don't own it when corn price goes down. Rumour is that farm cycle's doing down because volumes have been good, bumper crop.

Complex company in a complex situation. Well run. Potash drives everything, and now prices are lower. Low-cost operator BHP is coming in, and that's the unknown. It'll cause price pressure. He wouldn't go there.

Likes it at these levels and potash prices look firm. They have great retail operations, and trades at 7x operation cash flow and are buying back shares. Have growth sooner than later.

It spiked after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine but has fallen back. More fertilizer supply coming on is a concern. Also the economics at the farm level are somewhat challenged and Nutrien has retail outlets that sell to them. He does not see a catalyst for the stock at this point.

It is cyclical and moves with farm and food prices. The farm cycle is down and he doesn't see much money in it now except for the dividend of 4.4%.

Biggest fertilizer producer in the world. High quality. Shares have pulled back nicely, potash price has really come off. Interesting entry point. Strong balance sheet, plenty of profitability. Buy now, add if further weakness. Nice yield of 4.1%, above the TSX market.

2022 very profitable, but cyclical business. Commodities tend to go up and down, but is a stable business overall. Dividend yield is safe and compelling. Would recommend holding, and waiting for share price to fall before buying. Strong name and management team. 

Started to recover earlier this year, but the trend has broken. Looks to have support around $64-65. Seems to be in a range of $64-80.

Very well run, optimizing costs. But the elephant in the room in BHP and potash. BHP will go ahead with their potash mine, similar to Nutrien's, so this makes potash pricing very uncertain for the medium term.

NTR mentioned it is turning to AI, and more so automation, to help with increased efficiency and reduce workplace injuries for its employees, and that it will spend $15 to $20 million per year over the next 10 years to make this a reality. We feel the market mostly ignored this as it seems to be more of the use of 'automation' rather than brand new AI tech, and for now the improved efficiencies are not quantified but the annual investment cost has been quantified by the company. 

The company is still in the bottoming process from its large decline over the past couple of years, and we would be OK slowly accumulating a position here, and seeing if price can hold in this mid-$60s range. 
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They own for the retail, agricultural side not the commodity side. The dividend of 3.8% comes from the agricultural side.